Episode 283
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris have got six pitchers who failed to live up to their lofty draft status. The two discuss what went wrong for these pitchers and decide whether or not they will re-invest in 2016.
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Value is nebulous term in fantasy sports. In fact, some (namely colleague and friend Todd Zola of Fantasy Alarm) don’t even like the term anymore as it can be often misused. I believe Zola has some good points against using the word so often, but nevertheless we’ll push forward with it as it conveys the idea I’m going for today. Who delivered the most bang for their buck? For this particular piece, I’ll be looking at those who were drafted regularly.
Determining who was drafted “regularly” will come via the excellent FantasyPros data on average draft positions (ADP) across six different sites. I used a 350 ADP as the cutoff, that covers 10- and 12-team leagues easily (23-man roster plus reserves) and gets pretty deep into 15-team leagues. Here is the overall ranking and then you can click by each position. I’m looking at this by position and comparing a player’s draft slot at his position to where he stands now.
To qualify as the best value, they must be in the top 12 at their position per the FantasyPros Player Rater. It’s great that Adam Lind is 32 spots higher than his draft spot at 1B, but he’s still only 17th at the position. Mark Teixeira is similar in that he’s 26 spots better than his draft slot, but sits just 20th at the position (due in part to an injury shortening his season, obviously).
CATCHER
Stephen Vogt [OAK – Draft: 23rd at C, 315th Overall; 2015: 6th at C]
Brian Dozier
Brian Dozier has 28 HRs this season making him the most prolific power-hitting second basemen in the game. Coming off a 2014 season where he hit 23 HRs, and tied Neil Walker for the most HRs by a second baseman, this is a significant jump and provided fantasy owners with some unexpected extra returns in the power department. On the positive side of the equation this season, his LD% is at a 23.4% rate and his hard hit % is 29.4% which are both career highs. But there are some areas of concern to consider if you want to bet that he keeps up this level of HR production next season.
Clear indications in his hitting profile suggest that he has sold out for extra power. His overall contact rate dropped from a respectable 84.2% last season to 79.3% this season. Dozier is making substantially less contact on pitches outside the zone which has contributed to 3% increase in his K%. He is pulling the ball more than ever, which may account for part of his HR surge, but his Chase Rate is up to 30.7% from 28.4% last season.
Agenda
• He allowed a two-run homer to Lucas Duda, but Ken Giles otherwise held on for his 14th save of the year. Giles was a top tier non-save relief option last year and he’s kept it up this season while accumulating saves. His K% dropped to 29.6% from a ridiculous 38.6% last year but a 30% strikeout rate is still elite and although he’ll continue to close on the Phillies, Giles should be a prime target in 2016.
Episode 124 – This Is Crazy Baseball Right Now
The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!
In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss end-of-season exhaustion, Brett Wallace vs. Clint Robinson as sleepers, sizing up Zach Davies, Dylan supposedly predicting great things from Lucas Duda, Brandon Phillips running on the basepaths more in 2015, Tyler Lyons’ potential as a starter, Mike Trout’s advantage over Bryce Harper, some questions of gamesmanship, and updating the Field of Streams stats.
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Thanks to you commenters, it’s clear that getting the scheduled starter right for even just two days after I type this is a difficult task for my source. How did it tell me that Adam Conley would start today when he actually started the previous day?! I am using my fantasy site on CBS since the format of the probable starters was easiest to copy to Excel and eventually get into this post. Hopefully there aren’t any more mistakes!
If I’m late getting to any comments today, I apologize. I’ll be on the road a bit headed to/from from Chicago.
On today’s agenda:
1. Ryan Zimmerman calls it a season
2. Quick Adam Wainwright update
3. Miami shuts down Giancarlo Stanton
4. Streaming Pitching Options
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As the season draws to a close, and the Red Sox try to push their record to .500, there’s plenty of blame to go around. The rotation didn’t end up working out, really, and there’s more than one high-priced acquisition that fizzled in his first year. But if you sort the leaderboards for the worst players in baseball this year, one name drifts to the top: Pablo Sandoval.
The easiest analysis is to say that he’s been better in the past and will be better again. And one-year defensive samples are certainly part of this story, so he could easily get back to being a decent defender and recover his value that way. That said, Sandoval has lost nearly forty points of adjusted offense, and that seems extreme. It’s even worse for second place on the losers list, as Victor Martinez has lost a whopping 90 points of weighted runs created plus from last season to this one.
Victor Martinez just showed us the worst single-season drop-off since free agency began.
Can we just pencil Martinez and Sandoval into their career numbers when they’re on the wrong side of this single-season dropoff leaderboard?
Yesterday, Mike Podhorzer gave you 10 pitchers to start for yesterday (and yesterday only). Indeed, the well of relevant advice has run dry save a few drops here and there, yet it’s too early to look forward to offseason chatter.
You all liked Pod’s idea, though; you just needed the advice in advance. Still, continuing this pattern leaves us without any names for today. Perhaps you’re in a league where you can make moves prior to the day’s first game. If that’s the case, then I hope this helps! You have about 45 minutes until day games start.
Games are ordered by start time per ESPN. And, for your convenience, here’s some color-coded goodness: No-Brainer, Maybe, Sit (or a desperate deep-league play)