The Daily Grind: Smyly, Corbin, Hicks, Rollins

Agenda

1. Pod’s Pitchers
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Corbin, Sabathia, Hicks, Rollins
6. Factor Grid

1. Pod’s Pitchers

Yesterday, my colleague Mike Podhorzer took a look at start/sit decisions for every pitcher scheduled to throw today. Thanks to a few rain outs, some extra arms are now available too. Podhorzer takes a conservative approach to his final recommendations. Reading between the lines, I think he likes Tyler Lyons the most out of the widely available arms. I can’t say I disagree. I’d also consider Logan Verrett or Jarred Cosart. Verrett should earn a win against Alec Asher and the Phillies. Cosart is opposed by a Rays lineup that doesn’t hit righties.

2. Daily DFS – Smyly, Zimmermann

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: There are three make-up games from yesterday on the early schedule, but you can’t use them in DFS. Unfortunately, some of the best pitchers available today are part of this early group.

Late: Jon Lester is the top pitcher this evening. I tend to look at Lester as a good mid-rotation pitcher rather than a true ace. The Reds do like to run the bases so they could create havoc if the BABIP gods are friendly. Masahiro Tanaka has the ceiling of an ace, but I’m often scared away from using him. In addition to the existing arm problem, he’s returning from a hamstring injury. The Red Sox won’t just roll over either.

I thought Drew Smyly would be cheaper, but he’s $8,700 on FanDuel and $9,900 on DraftKings. As such, his matchup with the Marlins isn’t flying under the radar. He’ll have to pile up a bunch of strikeouts to provide value since he’s unlikely to throw over six innings. The Rays should have an easy time with Cosart. They might not, but they should.

Jordan Zimmermann is coming off a shaky outing against the Phillies. He’s had a LOT of easy matchups down the stretch. He’s a heavy favorite to defeat Williams Perez and the Braves. While Philadelphia gave him fits in two starts, he’s pitched well against the other lousy offenses.

If you’re looking for a bargain, prepare for a shrug. I suppose Chase Anderson could work. Last time out, he one-hit the Dodgers over six innings and struck out 10 batters. The Rockies are an easier opponent, but they generally hit mediocre righties well. He probably won’t outperform his last start.

Stack Targets: Barry Zito, Tyler Lyons, Matt Boyd, Chad Bettis, Asher, Perez, Mike Pelfrey, Michael Bolsinger, Charlie Morton, Verrett, Mike Leake, Anthony DeSclafani, Kevin Gausman

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

My dog woke me up with hot flashes or some similar nonsense. It’s absurdly early in the morning. Jeff hasn’t listed any GB/FB splits yet. If he does, you can find the raw output here.

4. SaberSim Observations

Ignoring Carrasco, Lester, Andrew Cashner, and Smyly are the top rated pitchers this evening. I like the Cashner recommendation. He’s posted pedestrian numbers on the season, but his talent is still readily apparent. The Brewers offense is a skeleton crew. Only Adam Lind and Khris Davis produce at an above average rate. Ok fine, add Domingo Santana and Jason Rogers to that list. I’m still unimpressed.

Miguel Cabrera is the top rated hitter of the day opposite Yovani Gallardo. Unfortunately, Miggy is expected to sit. As of 5:00am, the Tigers stack is highly recommended. Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, Anthony Gose, and Tyler Collins all appear in the top 15. I’m not sure I see a compelling reason to pick against Gallardo over lesser pitchers like Asher. The SaberSim projections can change wildly throughout the day. I think I’m just hitting them way too early today.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Corbin, Sabathia, Hicks, Rollins

Pitchers to Start: There’s an unusual volume of waiver wire starters available tomorrow. Remember that Yahoo innings exploit I described yesterday? Now is a good time to implement it. Hopefully you’re close enough to your cap.

Patrick Corbin is 33 percent owned. He’s very likely to earn a win against the Rockies. As we’ve discussed numerous times, the Rockies are the worst team in the league against left-handed pitching. They’re also the worst on the road. Corbin is very good against same-handed hitters. Lucky for him, Colorado only has a couple righties to trot out there.

Also consider: Brett Anderson, Ian Kennedy, Rich Hill, Steven Matz, Jerad Eickhoff, Tyler Duffey, Josh Tomlin

Pitchers to Exploit: Not only are there a bunch of starters to use, none of the exploits are roll-over-drop-dead-terrible. You might disagree with regard to David Hale, but take a look at his peripherals. He has a 3.99 xFIP.

What about CC Sabathia? He hasn’t allowed more than five runs since July. Strangely, the uptick in performance (2.98 ERA) coincides with a sharp decline in command (4.37 BB/9). He had a 1.92 BB/9 leading up to August. In some cases, it can be counterproductive to work in the strike zone. Maybe Sabathia has discovered this simple truth.

Also consider: John Lamb, Tyler Wilson, Ryan Weber, John Danks, Hale

Hitters (power): Aaron Hicks remains under 10 percent owned despite solid five category production. He has a 47/11/32/13/.258 fantasy slash in 375 plate appearances. His rates are even better since he was recalled on July 3. He’s not the next Bryce Harper, but he does all the things Steven Souza was supposed to do. Josh Tomlin is homer prone and will eventually suffer from BABIP regression.

Also consider: Jake Lamb, Wilin Rosario, C.J. Cron, Clint Robinson, Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Darin Ruf, Michael Conforto, Chris Young, Chase Utley, Andre Ethier, Jorge Soler

Hitters (speed): Since returning to action on September 23, Jimmy Rollins has yet to attempt a stolen base. However, he’s locked in at the plate with a .389/.476/.556 slash, .438 BABIP, and more walks than strikeouts. He should put more balls in play tomorrow against Tim Hudson.

Also consider: Ender Inciarte, Delino DeShields, Erick Aybar, Rusney Castillo, Kelby Tomlinson

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Keep an eye on the weather. All of the places that were a risk yesterday have a 15 percent chance of rain. Usually that means nothing, but it can occasionally turn into a delay. And as I pointed out above, it’s very early in the morning. There is still plenty of time for forecasts to change.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.