Archive for June, 2015

How Much is Too Much to Acquire Mike Trout?

It’s the holy grail for any team competing for a fantasy title, maybe even more so in a 5×5 league – the opportunity to add Mike Trout mid-season (assuming, you know, that you did not have him PRE-season).

In the FanGraphs Experts ottoneu league, I am in the midst of negotiating for just that opportunity. My team in this 5×5 league currently sits in 6th* place, but only 6.5 out of 3rd and with some upside. For example, the team in first is currently tops in strike outs – but has also thrown 110 more innings than any other team. He’ll be dropping in K, W, and Saves as other teams catch up once he hits the IP limit. So I want to make a run, and how better to do that than with Trout.

*All stats as of Saturday, so they may be out of date by the time you read this.
Read the rest of this entry »


Four Starting Pitchers Due For Better Walk Rates

I don’t discuss it as often as my xK% equation, because the R-squared is significantly lower, but my xBB% formula is still useful to calculate and analyze the results. Even for hitters, strikeout rates have always been easier to predict from an equation than walk rates. Odd. Anyway, let’s take a look at the four starting pitchers whose xBB% marks are most below their actual walk rates. This could signify improvement on the way, which would bring both ERA and WHIP down.

Read the rest of this entry »


Roto Riteup: June 15, 2015

Today’s Roto Riteup comes on the heels of a revelation: any graduation ceremony lasting longer than two hours should be outlawed, and the offenders prosecuted for public indecency.

On today’s agenda:
1. Fun with arbitrary endpoints
2. Various news and notes
3. Streaming Pitcher Options

Read the rest of this entry »


RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 6/14/2015 – Buxton Is Here

Episode 241

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette discuss the injury news for Corey Dickerson, Martin Prado, Lance Lynn, Aaron Sanchez, and Bryce Harper then dive into the call-ups: Byron Buxton, Francisco Lindor, Domonic Brown, Allen Webster, and Steve Cishek before closing with around the league chatter.

Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: Sunday, June 14, 2015

The Braves are now three games below .500, and a huge reason is because, as we’re reminded on an almost daily basis by Chip Caray, the Braves were unable to outscore their bullpen again. Mike Foltynewicz couldn’t get past the fifth inning, and Brandon Cunniff had to come in to spell him. He struck out a pair of Mets, but not before giving up a bomb to Travis D’Arnaud and walking a pair. Luis Avilan gave up a three-run homer to Juan Lagares in the sixth, to erase all memory of the Braves 8-3 lead. New additions David Aardsma and Dana Eveland each pitched a scoreless frame. The Braves will need that to continue, or maybe they turn to a few of their minor-league starters to work out of the pen in Atlanta in an effort to keep their innings down, and also start reaping benefits from them sooner rather than later. Matt Wisler and Manny Banuelos would seem to be logical options if the Braves choose that route.

Read the rest of this entry »


Roto Riteup: June 14, 2015

You won’t find any white hot pitching matchups to watch today, but you will find some white hot analysis in today’s Roto Riteup.

On today’s agenda:
1. Here comes Byron Buxton, Francisco Lindor
2. Various news and notes
3. Streaming Pitcher Options

Read the rest of this entry »


Bullpen Report: Friday, June 12, 2015

Sorry for the lateness of the Bullpen Report today, but here it is.

Who is closing for the Chicago Cubs today? Jason Motte pitched a perfect eighth, and Pedro Strop pitched the top of the ninth in a tie game Friday, the spot usually reserved for the closer. He struck out one and didn’t give up a single baserunner. Hector Rondon was saddled with the loss after he gave up a pair of hits and was the victim of some shoddy fielding behind him, as a Kris Bryant error greased the track for the Reds to score one in the top of the tenth. Rondon did give up those two hits, so he could have mitigated the error, but this is one reason why he isn’t the number one choice to close right now. Strop has slid into the closer slot on the grid for today, but who knows what the grid will look like Sunday night. Across the diamond, J.J. Hoover sucked up his fifth win of the year after throwing two scoreless innings and lowering his ERA to 1.71. Aroldis Chapman struck out a pair of Cubs in the bottom of the tenth to procure the save, his 13th.

Read the rest of this entry »


Roto Riteup: June 13, 2015

Having a hard time waking up this morning? Try this tune to get you hyped.

On today’s agenda:
1. Shane Greene gets the hook
2. Various news and notes
3. Who’s an Ace?
4. Streaming Pitcher Options

Read the rest of this entry »


The Daily Grind: Ross, Shoemaker, Baker

Agenda

  1. Daily DFS – Ross, Wilson
  2. GB / FB Splits
  3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Shoemaker, Martinez, Baker, Spangenberg
  4. Factor Grid

Read the rest of this entry »


Stream, Stream, Stream: #2xSP (6.15-6.21)

We continue to make headway in #2xSP with almost 0.30 sliced off the ERA, 0.2 added to the K/9 swiped from the WHIP and another 0.2 added to the K/BB as well. The record made a lateral move, but so far this at least represents progress. This week we’re bringing you three righties that are pretty far off the radar, in hopes that you can actually use them for a competitive advantage. We’ll see, huh?

Here are the totals through half of week seven:

10-28 record
5.14 ERA
6.2 K/9
2.3 K/BB
1.42 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses. Y! ownership numbers pulled courtesy of twitter pal @PandaPete21, whom you should give a follow:

RHP Trevor May – 9.5% ESPN/7% Y! – @STL (.314), v. CHC (.311)

May has quietly been brilliant for the Twins, pitching to a 4.16 ERA backed by a 2.80 FIP and 3.61 XFIP. He’s bumped his groundball rate into the 40s and has absolutely slashed his walks without letting it hurt his bottom line — the strikeout — too terribly much. The purveyor of a pretty good changeup (16.8% whiff rate, .654 OPS against), May has been beaten up a bit by a rough strand rate (69%, not nice) as well as a .335 BABIP, which is especially odd for a guy who is more fly ball-centric, though the Twins outfield defense isn’t exactly adept at chasing ‘em down. That’ll improve in short order — envision an outfield of Byron Buxton, Aaron Hicks and Eddie Rosario — and may in fact help May move even further towards his peripheral ERA marks. Interleague play allows May to see a couple teams he’s never seen before, and it’s my general perception — feel free to differ in the comments — that this usually benefits the pitcher at first. Read the rest of this entry »