The Daily Grind: Ross, Shoemaker, Baker

Agenda

1. Daily DFS – Ross, Wilson
2. GB / FB Splits
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Shoemaker, Martinez, Baker, Spangenberg
4. Factor Grid

1. Daily DFS – Ross, Wilson

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The Blue Jays and Red Sox are the proverbial cheese this afternoon. Their game is the only one that starts at 1:35. DFS contests begin with a nine game late afternoon slate (at 4:05 ET).

Nationals starter Joe Ross is a viable bargain pitcher against the Brewers. The best pitchers in the contest have fantastic matchups, so you need a high upside play if you’re going to go cheap. Gerrit Cole has the Phillies at PNC Park, Jacob deGrom draws the Braves, Chris Archer should stomp the White Sox at Tropicana Field. They all cost over $10,000 on FanDuel – a prohibitive cost.

Ross runs just $5,000, and he can do some of the same things as the big guns. Over his last half season of minor league work, he’s shown the ability to get a strikeout per inning while limiting walks. The scouting reports say his offspeed stuff is inconsistent. This is definitely a risky pick. If you want Giancarlos and Bryces, and Kipnisi in your lineup, it’s a good gamble.

Late: We’re left with five late games. Zack Greinke is the obvious stud versus the Padres, but he’s pricey. Alternatively, you could try C.J. Wilson for nearly $3,000 less. The Angels southpaw has muddled through some difficult matchups. He’ll finally face a team that doesn’t mash left-handed pitching. The A’s have an 86 wRC+ against lefties. Wilson is painfully inconsistent, but he can pile up 16 FanDuel points on a good day.

Stack Targets: Colby Lewis, Sean O’Sullivan, Mike Montgomery, Jeremy Guthrie, Tyler Lyons, David Hale, Mat Latos, CC Sabathia, Bud Norris, Mike Leake, Allan Webster, Ryan Vogelsong, Kendall Graveman

2. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Just 14 guys were identified for their GB/FB splits via query. Here are half of them:

Buster Posey and Justin Maxwell vs. Josh Collmenter
Ruben Tejeda, Michael Cuddyer, and Travis d’Arnaud vs. Shelby Miller
Howie Kendrick and Andre Ethier vs Ian Kennedy

3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Shoemaker, Martinez, Baker, Spangenberg

Pitchers to Start: Technically, Matt Shoemaker is 51 percent owned on Yahoo which is slightly above my arbitrary cutoff for inclusion in this column. He’s opposed by Sonny Gray and the Athletics. Facing Gray is never a good thing for a pitcher’s odds to win. However, the A’s offense has struggled to get off the ground.

Shoemaker was hammered in the early going, and he still carries a 16.3 percent HR/FB ratio. As such, his 4.86 ERA disguises a decent 3.82 xFIP. He’s continued to produce good strikeout (8.43 K/9) and walk (2.14 BB/9) rates. It should be a low scoring contest.

Also consider: Nate Karns, Mike Wright, Marco Estrada

Pitchers to Exploit: I almost went with the troll pick of Chris Heston here. Instead, let’s talk about Nick Martinez. He has a 2.65 ERA. I’ve been saying for months that he’ll fall apart. He has a 4.81 xFIP, and projection systems peg him for around a 4.85 ERA over the rest of the season. Any near 5.00 ERA includes some meltdown outings. The Twins offense can be sneaky good, and the game is at hitter friendly Golden Globe Life Park Place.

Also consider: Dillon Gee, Jorge de la Rosa, Taylor Jungmann, Jason Vargas, Rubby de la Rosa

Hitters (power): Jeff Baker tends to bat fourth or sixth when southpaws take the hill. The Marlins are actually hiding him from righties this year, but that’s mostly a function of their infield depth. Against lefties, he’s hiting .242/.324/.576 with three home runs in 37 plate appearances.

Also consider: Chris Coghlan, Matt Duffy, Kennys Vargas, Randall Grichuk, Danny Valencia, Garrett Jones, Travis Snider

Hitters (speed): With Jedd Gyorko out of the picture, nothing stands in the way of Cory Spangenberg. He’s opposed by Mike Bolsinger. The Dodgers’ righty has pitched well to date, but he’s a typical back-of-the-rotation guy. Spangenberg could definitely have a solid base. The matchup isn’t great for a stolen base.

Also consider: Angel Pagan, Joe Panik, Billy Burns, Jake Marisnick, Brock Holt, Jace Peterson

4. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Keep an eye on Pittsburgh and Chicago. Bot cities have a storm risk all day long. St. Louis could see a late downpour.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.