Dan Rozenheck recently published some interesting research via the Economist regarding the significance of spring training statistics. For the TL;DR crowd, there is some legitimacy to spring training breakouts and disappointments, although they correlate with only marginal improvements to in-season performance in terms of on-base plus slugging (OPS) and earned run average (ERA).

Our own Mike Podhorzer also conducted similar research of his own a couple of years ago. He found that a pitcher’s spring training strikeout and walk rates carry some significance in regard to in-season performance.
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We read a lot about prospects and rookies but the coverage tends to fall off the map after the conclusion of a player’s freshman season. This ongoing series will chronicle the successes and failures of the sophomore class to help determine whose rookie season was a harbinger of even better things to come, and whose first foray into The Show was actually blanketed in smoke and mirrors.

Jesse Hahn, RHP, Athletics: The A’s acquisition of Hahn was my favorite of their off-season moves. He has the stuff to be a No. 2 hurler but he’s been held back by injuries that are somewhat worrying. The move from San Diego to Oakland does not hurt his value whatsoever given the similarly-friendly confines of the home parks. He could be the second most valuable arm in the rotation behind Sonny Gray in 2015. Hahn, 25, has 200+ strikeout stuff if his body holds up.

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Yesterday, I opened 2015 Pod’s Picks season with my infield bullish and bearish selections. Today I’ll finish my look at hitters by moving into the outfield. The bullish group will only include those I ranked within my top 60 and the bearish only players the consensus ranked within their top 60.

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Episode 211

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette have news about Billy Butler, Brandon Morrow, and Clay Buchholz before finishing off the Outfielder Preview.

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Utilizing splits in DFS research is obviously a big part of the decision-making process. The platoon split is all too real, and we’d be crazy not to factor it in to our process. I would imagine the most common way DFS players consider platoon splits is by looking at something like wOBA or wRC+ versus left and right handed pitching to discern which players have pronounced splits or even reverse splits on occasion (cough Adam Jones cough).

But looking at stats like wOBA or wRC+ doesn’t exactly translate to a specific daily site’s scoring system. If a player has a wOBA of .360 against left-handed pitching and a wOBA of .340 against right-handed pitching, how does that translate to the counting stats he might put up on a given day? Read the rest of this entry »

I participated in two drafts this past weekend. Both were 10-team auctions, one a season-long rotisserie keeper league (“LOWV,” henceforth), the other a head-to-head points redraft league (“Sandlot”). They are just home leagues, not renowned leagues such as Tout Wars or LABR or anything like that, but hey! Breaking down any draft can make for good insight, and if it helps just one person clarify his or her strategy, perhaps it did some good.

“So, Alex, how did you in your drafts?” Great, thanks for asking! I love both my teams. Love them. Except I made the same mistake in each draft: I left some money on the table. Like, $20 in one instance. It became a running gag: “Don’t question Alex — it’s all part of his master plan!” But here’s the catch: I arguably have the best team, per the projections, even after managing my budget so poorly.

So where did my strategy go wrong? Honestly, I’m not sure it did. (Or maybe I’m just trying to make myself feel better.)
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If you’re like us—we sincerely hope you aren’t, but if you’re reading this blog, you probably are—your soul is suffused with the sickness unto death as you contemplate how microscopic the attention you pay to baseball events must be if you hope to succeed in any moderately sophisticated Fantasy Baseball league. First, of course, you have to know how the players everyone knows and cares about are doing. Thus, it will matter to you when you see a headline like “Sean Doolittle plays catch.” We know that this fact has a measure of real-world significance that, say, “Khloe Kardashian plays catch” or “Mitch McConnell plays catch” doesn’t. Still, we keep expecting to see follow-ups: “Sean Doolittle walks the dog.” “Sean Doolittle takes his kids to P.F. Chang’s.” Nonetheless, we care. And just to set the record straight: Doolittle doesn’t have kids, or a spouse, though he does have a famously hot girlfriend.

And then, of course, you need to be completely familiar with the resumes and futures of guys that normal people haven’t heard of. We won’t insult you by telling you who Bruce Rondon is, because you already know. But believe us, there are plenty of hard-core baseball fans (as opposed to Fantasy addicts) who don’t. Read the rest of this entry »

“Baseball is a game of fives.” So said my best childhood coach. And while the statement doesn’t make much sense in retrospect (it had something to do with there being no five-run home runs), it did come to mind while pondering the present work. It would seem that fantasy baseball writing is also a game of fives – five hitters I avoid, five actual sleepers, and five actual young sleepers.

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Rather than go with some April Fool’s type thing, lets us instead observe the television classic “So It’s Come to This: A Simpson’s Clip Show.” This is the episode where Bart shakes up a can of Homer’s beer, and it is a particularly outstanding episode. You’ll need an existing cable subscription to view it, however.

On today’s agenda:
1. More bad news for Anthony Rendon
2. Drew Hutchison gets the Opening Day nod
3. The San Francisco Giants turn to Tim Lincecum
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Due to the busy preseason schedule of posts I had to publish, the 2015 version of Pod’s Picks is being unveiled later than ever before. But I refuse to skip a year because it’s always fun comparing my rankings to the rest of the rankers and discovering who was closer at season’s end. Rather than drag things out by posting just one position a day like I have in the past, I’m grouping them into infield, outfield and starting pitchers to bring us into the start of the season (finally!).

I calculated the average rank of the three rankers in the Rotographs Rankings Update and then compared to my ranking within each position. As usual, I will limit my Bullish picks to those I have ranked as startable players in a standard 12-team league and Bearish picks to those the consensus has ranked as startable.

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