Five Pitchers I Avoid

“Baseball is a game of fives.” So said my best childhood coach. And while the statement doesn’t make much sense in retrospect (it had something to do with there being no five-run home runs), it did come to mind while pondering the present work. It would seem that fantasy baseball writing is also a game of fives – five hitters I avoid, five actual sleepers, and five actual young sleepers.

Presently, what you’re reading is five pitchers I avoid. This is not to say that you should avoid them – they’re just not for me. I restricted myself to the top 100 with hitters. I’ll do so again with pitchers. It’s pretty easy to avoid the 150th ranked player.

Adam Wainwright

Our little corner of the fantasy community is down on Wainwright, but he’s still the 58th player off the board per NFBC. My aversion to Wainwright can be explained in two ways.

Let’s assume he’s healthy and throws around 230 innings. Any standard 5×5 roto league with an innings cap is basically a K/9 league. His stuff has declined to the point where we expect about 7.50 K/9. Add in Wainwright’s volume of innings and you’ll need Aroldis Chapman to bail out your strikeout category. He’s a fourth or fifth round pitcher. It’s unacceptable for such a pricey hurler to ruin a category.

Now, let’s shift back to reality. He pitched through minor injuries last season, had offseason elbow surgery to remove “excess” cartilage, and he’s about 700 innings removed from a Tommy John surgery. To me, that all spells trouble. Most pitchers are between a 25 to 30 percent risk to land on the disabled list. My guess is that Wainwright is up around 40 percent with an elevated chance for major injury. I’ll take Gerrit Cole two rounds later.

Madison Bumgarner

I knew I’d be avoiding Bumgarner back in October. The stud lefty threw 270 innings in 2014. Honestly, that’s enough for me to employ the ol’ strikethrough. The final 52 innings came in October.

As you may be aware, those innings were somewhat extraordinary. Obviously, the results were fantastic. But the pragmatist in me sees short rest, heavy workloads, and postseason stress levels. He’s a great pitcher, I’m just too concerned to take him over Starling Marte, George Springer, or Corey Dickerson.

If you’re dead set on a pitcher, the alternatives come with similar issues. Corey Kluber and Johnny Cueto both set career highs in innings pitched. At least they didn’t work during October.

David Robertson

By now, you’re probably realizing that when I avoid a good player, it’s for reasons beyond performance. Robertson is a very good reliever. After succeeding in Yankee Stadium, there’s no reason he can’t do the same in Chicago. His combination of a decent cutter and elite curve makes for a simple yet effective attack.

I’m a little shaken by the forearm soreness he experienced a few days back. For those unfamiliar with pitching, forearm pain might seem normal. It’s part of the arm, so naturally it can become tired from throwing. However, it’s not like when your legs hurt after playing pick-up basketball for the first time in six months. The forearm isn’t overtaxed by pitching. Pain is always unusual and alarming.

Robertson will be ready for Opening Day, but he won’t work consecutive days during the spring. I’m grabbing shares of Zach Duke.

Matt Harvey

Look, I’m on the Harvey bandwagon. I think he’ll be absolutely fantastic this season…when he pitches. Our depth charts have him down for 173 innings* which is roughly 50 fewer than the typical fantasy ace. His ADP says he’s the 59th player off the board. In my drafts, he’s going in the 30’s. His auction cost tends to exceed Kluber and Cueto. There’s some helium at play.

Usually, I’d be all over a guy like Harvey. As a waiver wire buff, I’ll happily take an elite pitcher for 150 innings and backfill the rest later. However, I simply can’t justify a third or fourth round pick. Instead, I look to employ this approach with Jose Fernandez or Garrett Richards.

*It might be worth noting that I’m the NL East lead, so that’s really my playing time estimate.

Sonny Gray

It’s funny. Back when Gray was just a decent prospect, I was hyping him wherever I could. Sometimes, the helium sets in and things get out of control. Such is the case with Gray.

For fantasy owners, the problem is his recipe for success. His 94 mph fastball and sinker allow a lot of early count contact. It’s often weak contact. That’s good for a real world pitcher. As a result, I’m modestly hopeful he can continue to outperform his peripherals. From a fantasy perspective, it also means that his strikeout rate is merely ordinary (7.52 K/9).

His approach allows him to pitch deep into games, which should help his win total. As the 83rd player off the board, I’m looking for something a little more savory. Alex Cobb, Carlos Carrasco, Jake Arrieta, and Jacob deGrom are all available after Gray.

Also Avoid: Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, and Max Scherzer

April fools. Ha. Ha. Ha.