Five Pitchers I Avoid
“Baseball is a game of fives.” So said my best childhood coach. And while the statement doesn’t make much sense in retrospect (it had something to do with there being no five-run home runs), it did come to mind while pondering the present work. It would seem that fantasy baseball writing is also a game of fives – five hitters I avoid, five actual sleepers, and five actual young sleepers.
Presently, what you’re reading is five pitchers I avoid. This is not to say that you should avoid them – they’re just not for me. I restricted myself to the top 100 with hitters. I’ll do so again with pitchers. It’s pretty easy to avoid the 150th ranked player.
Our little corner of the fantasy community is down on Wainwright, but he’s still the 58th player off the board per NFBC. My aversion to Wainwright can be explained in two ways.
Let’s assume he’s healthy and throws around 230 innings. Any standard 5×5 roto league with an innings cap is basically a K/9 league. His stuff has declined to the point where we expect about 7.50 K/9. Add in Wainwright’s volume of innings and you’ll need Aroldis Chapman to bail out your strikeout category. He’s a fourth or fifth round pitcher. It’s unacceptable for such a pricey hurler to ruin a category.
Now, let’s shift back to reality. He pitched through minor injuries last season, had offseason elbow surgery to remove “excess” cartilage, and he’s about 700 innings removed from a Tommy John surgery. To me, that all spells trouble. Most pitchers are between a 25 to 30 percent risk to land on the disabled list. My guess is that Wainwright is up around 40 percent with an elevated chance for major injury. I’ll take Gerrit Cole two rounds later.
I knew I’d be avoiding Bumgarner back in October. The stud lefty threw 270 innings in 2014. Honestly, that’s enough for me to employ the ol’ strikethrough. The final 52 innings came in October.
As you may be aware, those innings were somewhat extraordinary. Obviously, the results were fantastic. But the pragmatist in me sees short rest, heavy workloads, and postseason stress levels. He’s a great pitcher, I’m just too concerned to take him over Starling Marte, George Springer, or Corey Dickerson.
If you’re dead set on a pitcher, the alternatives come with similar issues. Corey Kluber and Johnny Cueto both set career highs in innings pitched. At least they didn’t work during October.
By now, you’re probably realizing that when I avoid a good player, it’s for reasons beyond performance. Robertson is a very good reliever. After succeeding in Yankee Stadium, there’s no reason he can’t do the same in Chicago. His combination of a decent cutter and elite curve makes for a simple yet effective attack.
I’m a little shaken by the forearm soreness he experienced a few days back. For those unfamiliar with pitching, forearm pain might seem normal. It’s part of the arm, so naturally it can become tired from throwing. However, it’s not like when your legs hurt after playing pick-up basketball for the first time in six months. The forearm isn’t overtaxed by pitching. Pain is always unusual and alarming.
Robertson will be ready for Opening Day, but he won’t work consecutive days during the spring. I’m grabbing shares of Zach Duke.
Look, I’m on the Harvey bandwagon. I think he’ll be absolutely fantastic this season…when he pitches. Our depth charts have him down for 173 innings* which is roughly 50 fewer than the typical fantasy ace. His ADP says he’s the 59th player off the board. In my drafts, he’s going in the 30’s. His auction cost tends to exceed Kluber and Cueto. There’s some helium at play.
Usually, I’d be all over a guy like Harvey. As a waiver wire buff, I’ll happily take an elite pitcher for 150 innings and backfill the rest later. However, I simply can’t justify a third or fourth round pick. Instead, I look to employ this approach with Jose Fernandez or Garrett Richards.
*It might be worth noting that I’m the NL East lead, so that’s really my playing time estimate.
It’s funny. Back when Gray was just a decent prospect, I was hyping him wherever I could. Sometimes, the helium sets in and things get out of control. Such is the case with Gray.
For fantasy owners, the problem is his recipe for success. His 94 mph fastball and sinker allow a lot of early count contact. It’s often weak contact. That’s good for a real world pitcher. As a result, I’m modestly hopeful he can continue to outperform his peripherals. From a fantasy perspective, it also means that his strikeout rate is merely ordinary (7.52 K/9).
His approach allows him to pitch deep into games, which should help his win total. As the 83rd player off the board, I’m looking for something a little more savory. Alex Cobb, Carlos Carrasco, Jake Arrieta, and Jacob deGrom are all available after Gray.
Also Avoid: Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, and Max Scherzer
April fools. Ha. Ha. Ha.
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Well done. Got me good.
That was hilarious. I forgot what day it was. Avoid Kershaw, King Felix and Scherzer.
Good one Brad. Certainly got my attention for a couple of seconds.
wluld you trade gray for Pineda in a 14 tm dynasty league?
No.
I think this depends on the rest of your staff. Pineda could easily be the better pitcher but he has pretty substantial health concerns and I think he has a much wider range of possible outcomes, whereas Sonny has a higher floor and lower ceiling.
If you feel like taking the risk, I’d do the trade, but if you’re counting heavily on Sonny’s 200 above average innings, I might keep him. If you have other similar pitchers, I’d take a shot on Pineda.
Of course, with it being a dynasty league, I’d be more inclined to keep Sonny as well.
Completely agree, those are all the same pitchers that were on my “do not draft” list as well.
Bumgarner threw 130 fewer pitches last season than Kluber. Also fewer pitches than Kershaw threw in each of the prior 3 seasons.
I’m not sayin’… I’m just sayin’.
Whoa whoa whoa…don’t try to go all stats, what do you think this is, a saber website?
You’re not including 52.2 October innings.
And in comes Brad with the hammer of truth!
Ack, whoops. Silly me for not realizing it was regular season only. You’re right, that will add another 600-ish pitches and move him closer to being the full-year leader (he may or may not still lag Price and Shields, possibly others, but they’ll all be pretty close).
Exactly, I have no idea why innings is even brought up regarding Bumgarner. Pitches create stress on the arm, not the number of innings he is out there for. Unless there is a metric for time spent in the sun that I am unaware of.
Managers don’t typically take their starters out at the end of the 6th if he only threw 60, but they sure as hell do if he did 120.
I personally avoid Bumgarner cause of the number of sliders he throws. From 2011 to 2014 he’s been #1 or #2 in sliders thrown and has the second highest average usage with 35%. He could be the exception but I’d rather not bet on his arm lasting 200+ innings every year with that many sliders.
There is some debate as to the true nature of that pitch. The velo differential (about 4 mph) is a little too high to be a cutter. And it’s way too low to be a slider. I think Eno coined the term “baby slider” to describe Arrieta’s cutter-thing. It applies for Bum too.
It’s unclear if Jeff Z’s slider research applies to baby sliders. My instinct says no. With a true cutter, you throw through the ball like a 4-seam. A baby slider is similar, but it’s usually achieved by loading the ball so it tumbles out of the hand. It’s still more fastball than slider. A true, sharp slider requires a wrist snap. I suspect it’s the late arm action that causes the injury problems.
You are way behind the times… These are called ‘slutters’.
I prefer Eno’s baby sliders. It’s more descriptive of how the pitch is executed.
I agree that season pitch count totals are under emphasized, it seems like that would be just as important as IP. But I haven’t seen much/any research into the topic.
What you have to remember with IP totals tho is that the pitcher is coming out of the game for 15-25 min at a time and their arm is cooling off. Then they have to go back in, warm up for what, 8 pitches, then resume throwing 100%. By some pitchers’ admission, this is more stressful even than pitch count totals.
That said, I’m still buying Bum. The wheels haven’t fallen off that ace yet.
Gfuzz – I those were things that one settles for at the bar when, out of options at 1:30am?
and I looked at pitchers who threw as many pitches as MadBum and Shields (who threw even more pitches) and there was no hangover effect:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/did-bumgarner-and-shields-throw-too-many-pitches/
I love people like Brad keeping his value down.
His value ain’t down if he’s getting picked mid-3rd. He’d need to find about 2 K/9 to justify that price imo.
I dont think the innings (or more specifically the # of pitches he threw) will be any concern going forward for Bum.
The problem is that he had a very well publicized historical World Series run, and that has driven his price way up. If he was going as the 10th SP off the board, hed be good value. As the 4th-6th… eh not so much.
Alex Cobb had forearm issues similar to David Robertson but is recommended here as an alternative instead of an avoid.
I’m seeing him go around #125. If Robertson were that late, I’d also recommend him.
It can go both ways.
Also note, without the forearm issues, I’d be picking Cobb ahead of Robertson. So the apples to apples comparison would have Robertson going around pick 140.
None of these are absolutely bad pitchers that should be avoided. It seems like the only reason to not take them is ADP and auction costs. At what point would do toss your avoidance out the window and start grabbing these guys?
The question becomes hypothetical when the other guys in the room take the choice out of your hands.
One step further, avoid all SP that cost more than $2
In my keeper league, my 3 SP keepers (out of 5 spots) are Harvey, Fernandez and Richards.
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