NL Outfield Breakout Candidates by Spring Plate Discipline

Dan Rozenheck recently published some interesting research via the Economist regarding the significance of spring training statistics. For the TL;DR crowd, there is some legitimacy to spring training breakouts and disappointments, although they correlate with only marginal improvements to in-season performance in terms of on-base plus slugging (OPS) and earned run average (ERA).

Our own Mike Podhorzer also conducted similar research of his own a couple of years ago. He found that a pitcher’s spring training strikeout and walk rates carry some significance in regard to in-season performance.

All of this culminates with Eno Sarris‘ Wednesday post, in which he cited a Baseball Prospectus piece that asserts that a hitter’s strikeout rate stabilizes after 100 plate appearances and flagged a few notable spring training performances.

Like Eno, I’ve never been totally sold on the fact that spring training stats don’t matter. Sure, there are caveats concerning not only sample sizes — batting average and home runs are hard to trust, given what we know about luck on fly balls and balls in play — but also quality of opposition that makes spring training easy to dismiss. Still, a hitter’s strikeout and walk rates (and maybe stolen bases, too) seem likes components that could actually indicate legitimate skills improvements/declines because the hitter has much more control over his plate discipline and baserunning.

Keep in mind, however, that just because extreme changes in spring training stats compared to prior performance correlate with improvements in future performance doesn’t make them absolutely predictive. For example, Jay Bruce struck out and walked at a 20-percent clip last spring — both really good for him — then proceeded to have his worst offensive season in terms of, well, everything. Basically, I’m saying that it’s still pretty hard to trust spring stats, but that there could be some validity to the performances I’ve outlined below. Consider them players to monitor a little more closely.

Here are five particularly noteworthy, yet somewhat arbitrarily chosen, National League outfielders for your reading pleasure. I’ll be using Baseball Reference’s Opponent Quality (OppQual) measure to indicate quality of opposition, where 7 is AA, 8 is AAA and 10 is MLB.

Bryce Harper, WAS
18.5 K%, 24.1 BB%, 1-for-2 SB, 8.9 OppQual

His plate discipline trended in all the wrong directions last year after making sizable gains in his strikeout and walk rates in 2013. Seeing his spring strikeout rate fall to 2013 levels is nice, but the 24-percent walk rate is especially sexy. Asking Harper to keep walking once a game is ridiculous, but it is a promising development for a kid who could unlock (the rest of) his massive potential at any time. Should he stay on the field for all of 2015, his plate discipline, and not his power or defense, could be the reason for the breakout. When I said “monitor a little more closely,” I meant pretty much everyone but Harper, but even I’m a little bit higher on Harper now after having avoided him in all non-keeper drafts.

Curtis Granderson, NYM
9.4 K%, 18.9 BB%, 0-for-2 SB, 8.6 OppQual

2012 feels like so long ago. Not a breakout candidate as much as he is a comeback candidate, Granderson and his batting average are hard to endure now that the power has waned, but a big reduction in strikeouts could make his 20-homer power (or more?) a lot more tolerable. He had already significantly improved his strikeout rate prior to the spring (28.2 K% in 2013, 21.6 K% in 2014), and it’s possible the improvement hasn’t stopped. He’s 34, so I understand any reluctance you might have to buy what the Grandy Man is selling, but a return to a slightly lesser version of his 2010 self — 20 HR, 10 SB, .250 — would not shock me, and it would certainly make him relevant again, even as a lower-end option in standard mixed leagues.

David Peralta, ARI
6.5 K%, 14.5 BB%, 2-for-2 SB, 8.7 OppQual

Honestly, I hadn’t given Peralta much thought until I accidentally omitted him from my NL outfield tiers. It’s only nine walks, but he racked them up in 20 spring games, which is two-and-a-half times faster than he did when he debuted last year. He’s not guaranteed a role — he’s crowded out by A.J. Pollock, Mark Trumbo, Ender Inciarte and even Yasmany Tomas — but any kind of injury or trade that inserts Peralta into the starting lineup warrants your attention. Fact of the matter is he appears to be a 15-HR, 10-SB kind of guy with a decent batting average if he plays every day.

Ender Inciarte, ARI
9.5 K%, 4.8 BB%, 4-for-6 SB, 8.2 OppQual

Speaking of Arizona outfielders, Inciarte didn’t strike out until his 40th spring plate appearance. That’s bonkers. He’s now up to six K’s in 63 PAs, however, so it’s catching up to him a bit. His most interesting statistic is perhaps the six steal attempts, which prorates to 57 attempts (38 successes) over 600 PAs. But, again, he’s not guaranteed a full-time role, especially if the Diamondbacks plan to try Tomas in left field — a most unfortunate scenario all parties involved and invested.

Eric Young Jr., ATL
9.3 K%, 9.3 BB%, 7-for-7 SB, 8.2 OppQual

The perennially light-hitting, ridiculously speedy outfielder has cut last year’s strikeout rate in half this spring while stealing just as many bases as he always has. If he can maintain even some of his gains at the plate, it could go a long way, as a few of those extra balls in play will turn into hits. That’s the difference between an insufferable one-trick pony and a tolerable one; even at his best in 2013 (from what we’ve seen), Young clocked in as only the 49th-best outfielder. He’s really not worth a draft pick in a shallow mixed league, but he could be a valuable flyer, especially for speed-starved teams that can spare some batting average points. Like Granderson, he’s not really a “breakout” candidate, but if he accrues 600 PAs in that gutted Atlanta offense, we’re talking 50 to 60 steals, aka Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton territory. He led the league in steals in 2013, after all.