He’s 27, so maybe it’s not surprising. But over 1800 innings into his career, Felix Hernandez isn’t really showing any signs of decline yet. Well, if you ignore one stat.
In many ways, this article is going to be a rehashing of the Marco Estrada article I wrote prior to the 2013 season. The core aspects haven’t changed. Estrada continues to offer an above-average strikeout rate, a stellar WHIP due to a low walk rate and encouraging fielding independent numbers.
I stated in August:
If the home run rate doesn’t become too unworkable, there’s so much to like about Marco Estrada.
Those words epitomized his injury-shortened performance last year. The right-hander saw his home run rate skyrocket in the first half to an untenable 1.82 HR/9. Expectedly, his overall numbers suffered as he compiled a nasty 5.32 ERA and 4.75 FIP, but the above-average strikeout-to-walk ratio remained. It was unreasonable to project his home run rate to stabilize at such a high level, which is why Estrada was a prime buy-low candidate late in the season for owners who were searching for improved pitching for the playoff stretch.
A few weeks back, I wrote a piece on taking over a team from another owner, inspired by a new team I had acquired in a 20 team, 45-man-roster 5×5 (OBP, not AVG) league. In that piece, I mentioned three trades I made, moving five pieces and acquiring six.
Since then, I have made two more trades and wanted to take a quick look at how far my roster has come in the two months since I took ownership. I am not ready to calling it a winning (or even better) team, but it is certainly different and is starting to show the values of the new owner.
Finally, we have transitioned from the hitters to my favorite group of players, the starting pitchers. This is where the most disparity in opinion comes and so it will be fun to take a look back at how my starting pitcher Pod’s Picks performed.
The 2013 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. This week focuses on starting pitchers.
The players were ranked based on their 2013 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. To keep things manageable and avoid skewing the numbers, players were only considered if they amassed 140 innings over the course of the year to be factored into the baseline stats, but pitchers with 100 innings or more are shown below.. The replacement level was also adjusted to account for players eligible at multiples positions. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and traditional 5×5 roto fantasy leagues, where only one catcher is started.
One important thing to note is the premium (or lack thereof) placed on the position a player occupies in your lineup. For example, while a first baseman may be able to accumulate superior overall numbers, the availability of such production lower in the rankings severely dampers the amount the player was worth.
These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year. So, a player who missed time due to injury but put up great numbers during his time on the field would be worth less.
With all this in mind, here are your rankings. Read the rest of this entry »
David Murphy ranked 88th among outfielders in Zach Sanders’ rankings, worth negative $5. His disappointing season allowed the Cleveland Indians to sign the 32-year-old platoon outfielder to an affordable two-year, $12 million contract. In Cleveland, he’ll likely platoon with lefty masher Drew Stubbs. His predictable platoon, ability to produce at an average level in all five categories, and poor 2013 combine to make Murphy a cheap late-draft target.
Writer’s Note: Alex Gordon ranked 24th on Zach Sanders’ end-of-season rankings among outfielders.
I think the way I’ve always thought of/considered Alex Gordon is as the player whom, when stuck with, finally rewarded his team’s patience. And it sort of feels weird to call it ‘patience’ when he shuttled between Kansas City and Omaha countless times even after he had two seasons of 100-plus big league games under his belt.
In fact, I think that’s what surprised me most about breaking down Gordon. I knew from being an AL Central-centric viewer that his 2011 ‘breakout’ came at an age (27) and experience level (season five) that doesn’t typically equate when it comes to a player who hasn’t experienced a change of scenery. Read the rest of this entry »
There were many caution signs thrown up by fantasy baseball prognosticators when it came to Josh Hamilton’s expected 2013 output. His penchant for swinging at virtually any reachable pitch being among the primary arguments that he just couldn’t keep up his pace. But when it came to draft day, many managers had a hard time looking past that beastly .285/.354/.577 with 43 home runs and 128 RBI from 2012. As a result, he was coming off the board in second and third rounds and his price sat well into the $30’s in most formats.
When Jayson Werth left the Phillies after three consecutive seasons in which he was worth around five wins and jumped to the Nationals for a massive seven year, $126m contract after 2010, it was easy to bash it. He was headed into his age-32 season, he’d had injuries in his past, and he’d been very good, but never a superstar. That got easier when he had a very disappointing 2011 debut, then missed half of 2012 with a broken left wrist.
Then, at age 34, he went out and had something of a career year, topping the .400 wOBA mark for the first time. So heading into 2014, how exactly do you project that? Read the rest of this entry »
Kole Calhoun burst onto the scene in 2013 and will be my 2014 sleeper pick . He was called up mid-season to help a banged up Angels outfield. He took advantage of the opportunity and hit the ball decently down the stretch. For 2014, the key to evaluating him, without a MLB track record, is to trust the projections and value him accordingly. He will be ranked comparably with other decent fantasy options, but he should be taken at a discount.
Confession, I like Calhoun to be one of the top fantasy sleepers in 2014. The 26-year-old lefty has not been on any top 100 prospect ranking lists as he has made his way through the minors. Before the 2013 season, our own Marc Hulet had him as the 12th top prospect in the Angels shallow farm system. Stepping through some projections, he looks like Calhoun deserves top 25 OF consideration.