Update on a Deep League Roster Reconstruction

by
December 9, 2013

A few weeks back, I wrote a piece on taking over a team from another owner, inspired by a new team I had acquired in a 20 team, 45-man-roster 5×5 (OBP, not AVG) league. In that piece, I mentioned three trades I made, moving five pieces and acquiring six.

Since then, I have made two more trades and wanted to take a quick look at how far my roster has come in the two months since I took ownership. I am not ready to calling it a winning (or even better) team, but it is certainly different and is starting to show the values of the new owner.

In addition to the three deals mentioned in the last piece (James Shields for Lance Lynn, Jenrry Mejia and Yusmeiro Petit; Jeremy Hellickson and Josh Hamilton for Matt Dominguez, Jason Castro, and Asdrubal Cabrera; Cabreara, AJ Ellis and Luke Jackson for Michael Cuddyer) I have since done the following:

Zach Lee, Yordano Ventura and Tim Anderson for Junior Lake, Grant Green, and Ike Davis
My 5th Round Pick (90th overall, but with 560 keepers, really the 650th best slot) for Justin Ruggiano and a 9th rounder (175th overall)

I am very happy with the Ruggiano trade. Playing time is an issue in a potentially crowded Miami outfield, but Ruggiano has too much value to be on the bench and I expect Miami will either end up using him (due to injury or ineffectiveness elsewhere) or trading him. He’s older than you might expect (he’ll be 32 shortly after opening day), but he also clubbed 18 homers and stole 15 bases in about 3/4ths of a season last year. If he moved to a team where a full-time job waited, 20/20 would be a reach, but not out of the question at all. And while his .222 AVG and .298 OBP are not pretty, a .260 BABIP had a lot to do with that.

I don’t love the other trade – I am extremely high on Yordano Ventura, but felt that my young pitching staff allowed me to shop him and this was easily the best offer I got. Lee and Anderson are not nothing, but neither of them are guys I care much about. Lee could still turn into something solid, but I don’t believe Anderson (a SS in the White Sox system) is destined for great things (although Marc Hulet ranked him as #6 in the Sox system).

The prize for me in that deal was Davis, a guy whose virtues I have extolled to anyone who will listen, and who I still believe is a small adjustment away from big, big things. Lake and Green are upside plays, particularly Lake, who I expect will be a starter for the Cubs and whose tools make him a decent play in a league with 80 starting OF and 40 starting DH.

The net of all of this dealing is that I have moved AJ Ellis, Mike Aviles, James Loney, Josh Hamilton, and Ed Lucas out of my lineup, replacing them with Jason Castro, Ike Davis, Matt Dominguez, Michael Cuddyer and Justin Ruggiano. If you pair those guys up in the order listed, I will take my new starter over my former starter in all five cases. Among those guys, the biggest loss is Hamilton, but I still have Loney, Aviles and Lucas on my roster (if I want to keep them).

At the same time, I have moved Hellickson, Shields and Ventura out of my rotation (or perhaps my future rotation) and replaced them with Lynn, Mejia, and Petit. The growth is not nearly as obvious here, but I like the upside of Mejia and Petit quite a bit. In addition, in a 20-team league, having Max Scherzer and Jordan Zimmermann, along with Jamie Garcia, Nate Eovaldi, Wandy Rodriguez and Tom Milone is not a bad rotation. If the youngsters can develop (I also have a handful of other pitching prospects), that could be a solid group.

As I said at the beginning, I am not even convinced that this team is better than it was before. What it is, I think, is a team that is a bit more flexible (I had no depth, but by adding numerous starters and keeping many of the players they displaced, I have helped to remedy that) and it is much more a reflection of my approach.

I am not done yet (I think), but I am much happier with the roster I have today than the one I inherited.





 

A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.

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Hoplite
10 years ago

I always love reading other people’s trades. I love that James Shields trade, you can never have enough young pitching in a dynasty league. I love the Josh Hamilton trade as well, his career numbers outside of Rangers Park are concerning but people still remember the 43 HR season he had two years ago. Not sure how I feel about the Cuddyer trade. A good hitter is always hard to come by, but that .380+ BABIP scares me.

I recently took over an abandoned dynasty team in a 20 man league that’s a real mess. They gave up in June and had a roster full of veterans (some of which retired). The league strategy appears to be to bully me in to taking ridiculous trades. We have a league message board and there’s one guy who has responded “hahahahaha” to every minor trade I’ve made and has lectured me on how I don’t understand how competitive the league is. Then he offers me Matt Dominguez for Matt Carpenter and complains when I don’t take it.

It’s been tough just to engage people in trade talks where they’re willing to give up anything of value. Me being the new guy, I think they’re all looking to test my weaknesses.

So far, I’ve been able to trade Joe Nathan for Danny Duffy. This was when Nathan was a free agent and the uncertainty about his role worried me. Plus, there will be good relievers who will become closers through attrition and I already had Holland and Soriano. I traded Neil Walker for Ryan Howard. I think people undervalue Howard because of his age and contract, but he’s hit 25 HR and driven in 99 while hurt the last 151 games and I had no first baseman and Matt Carpenter at second. The fact that Walker was only eligible at second base gave him little value as a bench player. I then picked up Jesus Montero as a free agent and used his Steamer projections to convince someone to give me Brett Anderson for him. Montero has upside, and Anderson can’t stay healthy, but I essentially gave up nothing. And I already had Jason Castro.

But my most controversial trade was giving up Aramis Ramirez for Tyson Ross and Abraham Almonte. I can see why there’s skepticism about the move, but Tyson Ross was incredible as a starter last year and he plays in a very friendly pitching environment and Almonte has the potential to be a CF eligible 20/20 hitter if he gets playing time. Aramis’ injury history and age concerned me and this looks like a bridge year for me. Plus, there were a ton of decent third baseman available as free agents, who would cost me nothing. For whatever reason, whether it be poor defense or age, they were being overlooked.

In fact, there were all kinds of decent players available as free agents. I also picked up Marcus Semien, Henderson Alvarez, Garret Richards, Erik Johnson and Alex Meyer. I have a feeling this is where I’m going to make most of my improvements. If there’s on inefficiency in this league, it might be that people overvalue the players on their roster. They’re in love with players who are projected to be the 20th-25th most valuable player at their position. And they think trading three of said players is worth a top five player at their position.

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Brad Johnsonmember
10 years ago
Reply to  Hoplite

“If there’s on inefficiency in this league, it might be that people overvalue the players on their roster. ”

This is almost always true in formats where you can effectively keep everyone. Sometimes I’ll trade players who I considered overpriced for almost nothing just to take an extra $10 out of an opposing manager’s budget.

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Chad Youngmember
10 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

Says the guy who just sent me offers where I would get a $15 Moustakas and a $47 Pedroia 🙂

(by the way, I am not out on Pedroia, but not for Desmond).

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Chad Youngmember
10 years ago
Reply to  Hoplite

I can see the merit in a lot of those deals. I am unconvinced that Carpenter is going to maintain his value (see what Eno has written about him for more), and I think 2014 will be his last with 2B eligibility, but keeping him and Walker was probably unnecessary.

I think you overvalue Howard though. Yeah, his contract isn’t an issue for you, but his age IS an issue. And while 25 HR is not bad for a 1B, it also isn’t great, and there is a reason those 151 games have not been over the course of just one season. If he gives you 15 HR in 100 games, he’ll be serviceable for those games, but little more.

Most of your other deals made you younger and got you upside. If your roster is old and bad, that is what you want to do. The Ramirez deal and Nathan deal both make a lot of sense from that regard.

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Hoplite
10 years ago
Reply to  Chad Young

Honestly, I don’t expect to get much out of Ryan Howard. I tried to get a younger first baseman with upside. But no one was willing to trade one. The only place on my roster I would have had for Neil Walker was the “IF” position. And I would consider Neil Walker replacement level for that position (as in, I could get the same value out of waivers/free agent pool). The 20th most valuable second baseman isn’t going to provide any more value than the 25th most value first baseman.

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