Episode 30
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We discuss a pair of DL returnees and an offensive monster residing in Los Angeles.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)

Approximately 48 min of joyous analysis.

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The number one name blowing up my twitter feed is also fun to say. Yasiel Puig is a manbearpuig, a monster, a manchild, and a linebacker playing baseball, and he once looked like the bodybuilder you see on the left. And yet his batting average on balls in play is over .500, he’s walked three times, and he’s just so impossibly hot that selling high on him — in keeper or redraft leagues — is a popular play. But is it the right one?

To answer this, I just wanted to put him in the context of his peers. He’s only 82 plate appearances into his career, so I had to set the minimums low (80 PA). But here are the top ten rookies in slugging percentage since 1974:
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While the big league squad has been somewhat of an unadulterated mess, the Seattle Mariners do have some hope for the future, namely in the infield. Let’s take a tour, shall we?

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Justin Morneau has 26 home runs in his past 270 games played, which over 162 games would be a measly 16 long balls. For a first baseman, that just does not cut it. Yet still, Morneau is owned in 58% of Yahoo leagues.

While his RBI totals have not been bad and he still nets a 100 wRC+, the guy just does not have the skills he once had and is a drag on your first base slot if you throw him out there every week. He currently ranks 24 in wRC+ so even though he has been league average, everyone knows and understands the quality of first basemen around the league and that the fantasy worthwhile first basemen hit well above Morneau’s current levels.

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There’s a truth in baseball these days: prospects, rookies, and other young players garner much of the hype and excitement in the media. Whether it’s because they represent near-infinite potential or simply because they’re the fun new toys for everyone’s favorite teams, young players are the best. It’s hard not to get excited about the new, hot thing — whether it’s a smartphone or it’s a 7-raw outfielder making his ML debut.

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The combination of 40-man rosters and per-position game limits creates an interesting conundrum for owners on days with limited games played. Even when there are a more typical 12 games on a Monday or Thursday, rather than the four that were played last night, filling out a lineup can be difficult.

In most leagues, you either have a rather limited bench, leaving you with few choices to fill in for starters on off days, or you have no limits on games played (in head-to-head leagues, for example) allowing you to play anyone you can. But ottoneu forces you to think – do I really want to play my 8th OF and my 5th MI today? Just because they are on my roster, does that make them a good play?

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Yesterday, I unveiled the best pitcher expected walk percentage equation yet. By simply looking at the percentage of total pitches that are thrown for a strike and the rate at which the strikes thrown are put into play, we can get a pretty good idea of what a pitcher’s walk percentage should be. I was literally in the middle of typing up today’s post putting the equation to work on 2013 data to get an idea of which pitchers should have a higher or lower BB% when another light bulb went off.

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This morning’s Roto Riteup was prepared rough (caution, language).

On today’s agenda:
1. Zack Wheeler to start today
2. Reminder: Jose Reyes to be activated tomorrow
3. Speculation on Trevor Bauer
4. Three true outcomes: Ubaldo Jimenez
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• Joe Nathan is having a fine 2013. After picking up save number 25 last night he’s now supporting a 2.90 FIP. Nathan gives up a lot of fly balls (47.6% FB%) and he’s running a little hot with so few of them going over the fence (3.80 xFIP)  but he’s a solid reliever who will give you about a strikeout per inning on one of the better teams in the league. Behind Nathan in the Texas bullpen has been Tanner Scheppers but that soon may change with Joakim Soria on a rehab assignment, scheduled to return around the All-Star break. Soria last pitched in 2011 on the Royals and if he can find some of his former mojo, he and Nathan could form one of the premier set up and closer combos in the game.

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No pitchers going off the DL over the last few days, so I will just examine a few injury stories. Also, the PAIN and HURT leaderboards for younger players are posted.

• With about every pitcher who goes on the DL, I like to see if there were any glaring injury signs. With Jon Niese (torn rotator cuff), no signs really existed. His fastball velocity dropped 0.5 MPH from 2012 and his Zone% was down 0.9% points. While a declining velocity and Zone% are signs of a injury, these levels don’t usually raise any read flags. Of the 453 pitchers PAIN ranks, he was the 295 least injury prone.

Another factor I examine is his late game consistency (process is faster, it used to take over a minute to calculate and now it is almost instantaneous). Niese’s value has slow risen over the past three seasons.

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