MASH Report (6/24/13)

No pitchers going off the DL over the last few days, so I will just examine a few injury stories. Also, the PAIN and HURT leaderboards for younger players are posted.

• With about every pitcher who goes on the DL, I like to see if there were any glaring injury signs. With Jon Niese (torn rotator cuff), no signs really existed. His fastball velocity dropped 0.5 MPH from 2012 and his Zone% was down 0.9% points. While a declining velocity and Zone% are signs of a injury, these levels don’t usually raise any read flags. Of the 453 pitchers PAIN ranks, he was the 295 least injury prone.

Another factor I examine is his late game consistency (process is faster, it used to take over a minute to calculate and now it is almost instantaneous). Niese’s value has slow risen over the past three seasons.

Season: Late game consistency
2011: 30.3
2012: 35.1
2013: 50.2

The lack of a consistent release point has probably caught up with Niese, particularly his shoulder. Here is a release point graph of his last start.

While no obvious injury signs existed, years of throwing hard and inconsitently eventually caught up with Niese.

• The Washington Nationals have to be the worst team in baseball when it comes to handling everything to do with injuries. Davey Johnson’s belief’s seems to be behind the play hurt attitude of the club. Now Bryce Harper is in the middle of it. Harper want to return 100% while Johnson wants him earlier.

Harper:

“I’m full speed, every single day. It’s going to be hard playing at 70 percent if they want me to play at 70 percent. I’m not going to do that. I want to come back 100 percent and get back as quick as I can.

Johnson:

“I trust players too. They know more about their body than the medical staff. But when you come back from injury, are you ever 100 percent? No. The body has a wonderful ability to heal itself. The more you get the blood flowing, the more you have to heal.”

The Nats and their players need to get on the same page quickly when it comes to dealing with injuries.

• Reader John asked if I would take a look at Michael Pineda this week. Here is my best effort.

First, his latest fastball speed has been clocked averaging 92 mph with a max near 95 mph. This velocity is about 2 mph slower than he threw in 2012 before the shoulder injury. It will drop his value some.

Second, he has thrown decent in 8.1 IP of rehab with 1 ER (3 Runs), 7 K and 1 BB. He is able to get High-A hitters out. OK, I would hope so.

Finally, as Mike Axisa notes:

The 30-day rehab window expires on July 8th, so at that point the Yankees will have to activate Pineda off the DL and either add him to the big league roster or option him to Triple-A. If he spends roughly 2-3 weeks in the minors following rehab, the team will push his free agency back from 2016 to 2017. Seems like a no-brainer.

If the Yankees don’t really need him, he will likely see time in AAA once off the DL.

So with the information available right now, owners should expect velocity based declining returns and a possible AAA stint before a MLB call up.

• Shane Victorino’s back is hurting again. Don’t own hitters with back injuries.

• Josh Beckett is still out with a “Strained left groin; right hand fingers numbness”. W -w-w-w—wait. Strained groin, numb hand. Com’on Josh your not 15 any more, loosen your grip a little.

HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (hitters 27-years-old or younger today, no PA min.)

Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through and injury.

Rank	Name	Age	HURT	PA (2010 to 2012)	PA (2013)
1	Pete Kozma	25	193.2	104	269
2	Ike Davis	26	159.6	1334	207
3	Rob Brantly	23	158.4	113	174
4	Tyler Moore	26	157.2	171	102
5	Alex Avila	26	127.2	1318	188
6	Jhonatan Solano	27	121.2	37	34
7	Jurickson Profar	20	120.0	17	107
8	Jason Heyward	23	106.8	1730	220
9	Carlos Peguero	26	93.6	212	7
10	Fernando Martinez	24	87.6	175	35
11	Brett Wallace	26	85.2	792	26
12	Giancarlo Stanton	23	82.8	1498	144
13	Lonnie Chisenhall	24	81.6	374	113
14	Matt Dominguez	23	81.6	161	279
15	Danny Espinosa	26	76.8	1428	167
16	Billy Butler	27	75.6	2030	293
17	Logan Schafer	26	75.6	30	127
18	Justin Sellers	27	74.4	189	77
19	Tyler Flowers	27	73.2	297	195
20	Blake DeWitt	27	70.8	769	4

• Billy Butler is showing up on this list. The main item bringing him down his a significant drop in his ISO (.197 in 2012 and .122 in 2013). Sadly, the Royals are my team and I have known Butler is struggling, but I have heard nothing of a possible injury. I will let you know if I find anything out.

PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex) Rankings (pitchers 25-years-old or younger, no IP min)

Any player with a PAIN value over 100 (red) has the traits of a pitcher likely to be hurt.

Rank	Name	Age	PAIN	IP (2013)	IP (2012)
1	Jeff Locke	25	232.8	89.1	34.1
2	Wily Peralta	24	122.1	87.0	29.0
3	Matt Moore	24	104.5	80.2	177.1
4	Paco Rodriguez	22	88.9	26.0	6.2
5	Cody Allen	24	66.2	32.0	29.0
6	Justin Grimm	24	66.0	72.2	14.0
7	Phillippe Aumont	24	64.9	13.0	14.2
8	Robert Carson	24	63.5	18.0	13.1
9	Carter Capps	22	62.1	29.2	25.0
10	Kelvin Herrera	23	58.2	27.2	84.1
11	Jordan Walden	25	52.7	23.1	39.0
12	Hector Santiago	25	47.7	65.1	70.1
13	Mat Latos	25	47.2	103.1	209.1
14	Brett Anderson	25	45.7	29.0	35.0
15	Rex Brothers	25	42.4	32.1	67.2
16	Jarrod Parker	24	39.2	97.0	181.1
17	Jordan Lyles	22	37.3	63.2	141.1
18	Craig Kimbrel	25	35.4	28.1	62.2
19	Rick Porcello	24	30.6	76.0	176.1
20	Drew Smyly	24	28.4	46.1	99.1

• Mat Latos makes this list with an almost 1 mph drop in velocity (has been trending upward recently) and a Zone% dropping close to the magical 47%. Additionally, his release points are all over the place in his last start:

His stats are not as extreme as some other pitchers, but Latos owners should be monitoring him as the season goes on to see if his PAIN rating goes up or heads down.

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
Red colored entries are updates since last report.