Dumping Justin Morneau
Justin Morneau has 26 home runs in his past 270 games played, which over 162 games would be a measly 16 long balls. For a first baseman, that just does not cut it. Yet still, Morneau is owned in 58% of Yahoo leagues.
While his RBI totals have not been bad and he still nets a 100 wRC+, the guy just does not have the skills he once had and is a drag on your first base slot if you throw him out there every week. He currently ranks 24 in wRC+ so even though he has been league average, everyone knows and understands the quality of first basemen around the league and that the fantasy worthwhile first basemen hit well above Morneau’s current levels.
It seems like, much similar to Dan Haren, that people are holding onto him due to his past. That past is far from relevant when you see how much he has struggled over his past three years. His average is okay, as is his on base percentage, but he just lacks the power he once had likely for a variety of reasons. This is now his third consecutive year with his HR/FB rate below his career average and his second of the three with a mark lower than 4%. Even if that does rise, the expectation that he will provide value with his power going forward should not be very high.
ZiPs has Morneau at seven home runs for the rest of the year, as does Steamer. Both also have him with a lower average going forward and reaching 70-80 RBI for the season. So what is the reason to hold onto him at this point? Hope he has a couple hot stretches and you can trade him? There simply is not much left to like about Morneau anymore.
It is sad, because he once was one of the premier talents at the position and was a model of consistency. Unfortunately, players age and deteriorate and their fantasy usefulness does as well. With that said, it is time to part ways with Morneau and look for a more worthwhile option. Here is a hint, there are plenty.
Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.
Well, I am not sure what leagues this might be meant for, but the 14-team keeper league I am in starts a 1B and CI. The next possible options on Waiver are Garret Jones, Chris Johnson, Colvin and a large number of other unstartables on pace for far less production than Morneau, soooo maybe that is why the ownership is as high as it is?
Garret Jones is typically a very good option if you have an extra bench slot to stream him and another lefty. This year he’s a bit off, but that is a small sample versus his normally productive PAs versus righties.
Right…a bench bat. He doesn’t get enough every day at bats. If you have to start 42 corner infielders in the league…how can you question Morneau being rostered and a starter? Hence the reason I questioned this piece.
Ryan Howard, Michael Young, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam LaRoche, Freddie Freeman, David Wright, David Murphy, Allen Craig, David Freese, Aramis Ramirez, Joey Votto, Todd Frazier, Anthony Rizzo, Nolan Arenado, Kyle Blanks, Yonder Alonso, Chase Headley, Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, Brandon Belt, Hanley Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Paul Goldschmidt, Martin Prado, Mike Napoli, Mike Carp, Chris Davis, Manny Machado, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind, Evan Longoria, Paul Konerko, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Joe Mauer, Mark Reynolds, Nick Swisher, Carlos Santana, Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, Mitch Moreland, Adrian Beltre, Albert Pujols, Mark Trumbo, Kyle Seager, Kendrys Morales, Michael Morse, Matt Dominguez, Brandon Moss, Josh Donaldson
that’s at least 50 CI guys I would take over Morneau in a heartbeat. And those were just the ones I thought of off the top of my head. I KNOW I missed some more as well. He stinks. Doesn’t give you power or batting average or speed or upside or good run totals. Nothing but .270/15/75. Sorry, just not very exciting.
Past: Justin Morneau has 26 home runs in his past 270 games played, which over 162 games would be a measly 16 long balls.
Present: For a first baseman, that just does not cut it. Yet still, Morneau is owned in 58% of Yahoo leagues.
Past: While his RBI totals have not been bad and he still nets a 100 wRC+,
Future: the guy just does not have the skills he once had and is a drag on your first base slot if you throw him out there every week.
Past: He currently ranks 24 in wRC+
Past: so even though he has been league average,
Present: everyone knows and understands the quality of first basemen around the league and that the fantasy worthwhile first basemen hit well above
Past: Morneau’s current levels.
Huh?
Past: I read this comment.
Present: Commenting on this comment.
Future: Forgetting this comment. God willing.
WHAT YEAR IS IT
There’s something to be said for a solid, dependable 100 wRC+. My 12 team H2H league has both a CI slot and a Util slot, and the 6×6 tiebreaker is AVG. As bench depth or an insurance fill-in, a guy you can pencil in for a .290 BA with a few walks is very valuable. I bench him for whatever flavor of the month 1B I can claim off the scrap heap (hello Adam Lind!), but when a guy like Moreland goes down for a couple weeks, I am always happy to have a guy who will at minimum give me an empty batting average.
I can see this applying in shallower leagues, but right now I’m using Morneau as a bit of a super Util. Would it make much sense to put in say Moreland and/or Lind vs Lefties in instead of Morneau vs a Righty? That was my dilemma today actually. I have to start 2 out of the 3, and was just playing to their splits.
I’d play Lind and Moreland against any pitcher over Morneau right now.
He’s still fairly useful in Ottoneu, especially if platooned only against RHP (.338 wOBA this year, .378 in ’12).
Finally dropped Haren… it was like a weight being lifted off my shoulders!
Thanks for the update!! I had trouble sleeping last night not knowing whether or not you would drop him. Please continue to update us about your team, particularly in the comment section of articles that have nothing to do with the player you are updating us about.
Thanks in advance.
Uh, Haren is directly compared to Morneau in this article. Glad to see SteveJobs has risen from the dead to continue parlaying his “genius” into worthless criticism of people who don’t deserve it. …good for you, Eric
And thanks for letting us know what you do and do not care about! Is there anything else that you’re not interested in that you’d like to share with us?
it appears that we have moved beyond not caring about people’s fantasy teams and onto not caring about people who don’t care about other people’s fantasy teams. INCEPTION
Seems odd to share personnel moves, seems even odder that anyone would get so bent out of shape about it. Don’t like someone’s comment, be an adult and move on?
I’m getting really close to dropping Billy Butler. Yet he’s 100% owned, so I guess I would be the first to do it. He’s also been less productive than Morneau. I don’t get it.
Actually, I think Twins fans would tell you that Morneau has been hitting the ball well as of late (including a home run a few days ago.) I’d say he’s a good buy low candidate if you are really hurting at first base. Also since he is likely to be traded at the deadline, he could end up at with a better home park. As it is now he’s routinely hitting cleanup for the Twins so you have to like his opportunities there even if the home park isn’t the best.
Is Morneau really that bad of an option? ZIPs projects him to hit .270 or so, which is above the league average, he ranks 14th among 1B in RBI while pretty much every other option is not easily attainable (Or is Adam Dunn, who is taking AVG murder to a higher level this year and has a sub-.300 OBP). He is 9th in AVG among 1B. And if he hit 7 HR the rest of the year (ZIPs/Steamer projections), that wouldn’t be so bad.
He isn’t a great option or one that should be considered in shallower formats, but in formats with…say…a CI spot or a CI + Util spot, or in leagues with a higher amount of teams, he certainly has use as a solid option there who’ll provide plus value in RBI/HR and a negative value in HR/R (With a push in SB due to 1B rarely having large SB totals anyway). There aren’t too many better common FA options (Kendrys Morales and Mitch Moreland, maybe? Although they both have 40%+ ownership rates, so they’re probably taken in some of those leagues…Brandon Belt? He has hit more HR but is more of a negative RBI-wise…)
Since June 19, Morneau has bopped 11 HRs. Very glad I held onto him.