Edwin Encarnacion had a breakout that few predicted and he carried many a fantasy team with Pujolsian-like production for bargain basement prices. Since this is kind of what we do — that is, try to sniff out those back-of-the-draft goodies — one has to wonder if we all should have seen this coming.

Perhaps the reason Encarnacion gnaws at me so much is because I wrote his FanGraphs+ profile last year, and had this to say:

“…(B)ut if Encarnacion is going to play every day and he gets into the 550 at-bat range, you can bank on 20+ home runs, 70 RBI, and he should provide at least a respectable batting average. About 45% of his batted balls are fly balls, and his home run per fly ball rate dipped to 9.4% in 2011 whereas his career average is 11.9%. Should he see an uptick in HR/FB and his isolated slugging returns closer to his .200 career level (.181 in 2011), there’s certainly potential for more home runs here.”

So yeah, 20+ cough cough. At least I said “+”.

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He’s not dead yet! Lance Berkman is returning to Texas, where he spent his first 11 1/2 seasons with the Astros. Yesterday, it was reported that manager Ron Washington plans to bat Berkman third in the lineup, which would replace Josh Hamilton’s spot in the order. So we now have a soon to be 37-year old hitting third in a strong lineup and playing half his games in a top hitter’s park. I don’t know about you, but I can guarantee you that it is going to be difficult to resist the urge to draft him possibly one last time in my fantasy league. Whether that would be a smart move though is the question of the day.

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This offseason, as transactions unfold and news breaks on the big league level, we’ll take a look at how the ripple effects shake out on the prospect side, focusing primarily on 2013 fantasy impact, with an eye toward the future, too.

This week: Baseball’s best first base prospect gets suspended, and two top young hot cornermen currently remain depth chart victims.

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You’ve probably grown accustomed to long prospect profiles in my Friday morning spot, but I will be changing the layout of my posts until the start of the season to give you more practical fantasy advice for the upcoming season. I won’t be talking about draft position, ottoneu, or auction prices, rather I’ll breakdown which prospects can help your team in each of the traditional fantasy categories. Each week I’ll give you No Doubt, Overrated, and Sleeper picks.

Today, I’m starting with BATTING AVERAGE. Remember, I’m not evaluating a player’s prospect status. I’m discussing their ability to affect a single statistical category in 2013 relative to expectations.

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As our very early mock draft moved into rounds 6-10, we saw an expected run on starting pitchers. With the true aces like Justin Verlander & Clayton Kershaw well off the board, this is where you’ll see the second-tier guys coming down, the type of pitcher you don’t want to overdraft but that you also can’t really live without. Jack Moore kicked off the sixth round with Cliff Lee, and by the time the first of my two swing picks at 6.11 came up, Madison Bumgarner, CC Sabathia, Jordan Zimmermann, Adam Wainwright, & Chris Sale had gone as well. I finished off the round with Jered Weaver as my second pitcher behind Stephen Strasburg – yes, he’s a bit overrated, but it’s hard to argue consistent wins and ERA in fantasy, especially with that offense supporting him – and then with guys like Johnny Cueto, Matt Moore, & Roy Halladay still on the board, I kicked off the seventh round with a potentially high risk/reward pick: Kris Medlen. Read the rest of this entry »

Brandon Belt is entering a critical year. A former top prospect, it would be fair to say that Belt hasn’t lived up to the hype during his one and a half seasons in the majors. As we know, it’s not entirely his fault. Despite Belt’s billing as an impact prospect, he hasn’t been utilized in a full-time role all that much. But entering his age-25 season, Belt will go into the season with no competition for the San Francisco Giants’ first base spot. Playing for a team that has shown little patience with his struggles in the past, Belt is going to have to prove that he has what it takes to make it as a big league first baseman.

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While the movie Office space made the phrase, “somebody’s got a case of the Monday’s” a modern day staple of the American workplace, I think it’s time someone in the fantasy baseball community made the adjustment and coined the phrase, “a case of the Januaries.” Because let’s face it, this month sucks, plain and simple. The GM winter meetings have come and gone, the majority of free agents have already signed, Spring Training isn’t for another month and a half, and the baseball news feeds are pretty much barren. The derivative distraction that is fantasy football is finally over and…well…neither the NHL nor the NBA come close to that glorious six months of MLB deliciousness. I’m bored. And boredom brings on depression. And depression brings on…the Januaries. Read the rest of this entry »

Average draft position, or more commonly referred to as ADP, has become an important piece of information for snake drafters over the past couple of years. We here at RotoGraphs mention it in our articles all the time when analyzing players in the pre-season as we try to get a handle on where fantasy players are getting drafted. But, there are still fantasy owners out there who believe that ADP is useless and completely ignore it during their drafts. I think that’s a huge mistake.

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In our ridiculously early draft, I picked Victor Martinez in the 10th round. I like the idea of picking up Martinez on the cheap, but I wasn’t exactly sure what his value would be after missing all of 2012. I will attempt to get an idea of his value going into 2013.

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With a fair amount of attention paid to my Michael Bourn man-crush piece and so many of you saying how you prefer to grab power early and wait on speed, I decided to put your methodology into action and see where it took me. In another industry mock draft that took place just last night, I painfully resisted the urge to take Bourn, picked around the available speed and made a few different choices. While I cannot divulge the full results of the mock draft out of respect for the site that will be using it as part of its upcoming draft kit, I can discuss a few things in relation to my selections and this particular topic. Read the rest of this entry »