Draft Strategy: Waiting on SB – An Ode to the Readers
With a fair amount of attention paid to my Michael Bourn man-crush piece and so many of you saying how you prefer to grab power early and wait on speed, I decided to put your methodology into action and see where it took me. In another industry mock draft that took place just last night, I painfully resisted the urge to take Bourn, picked around the available speed and made a few different choices. While I cannot divulge the full results of the mock draft out of respect for the site that will be using it as part of its upcoming draft kit, I can discuss a few things in relation to my selections and this particular topic.
The draft was a 23-round, 12-team, mixed league 5×5 draft with an 18-man starting roster (C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 3 OF, 2 UTIL, 2 SP, 2 RP, 4 P) and five bench spots. With just 12 teams and only eight pitching slots, I knew I could easily wait on drafting starters and went with my old “no pitchers within the first five rounds” method. Probably could have even waited six or seven, but that’s another story. So knowing I wasn’t touching speed or pitching early, I focused on power and, even though it was just 12 teams, some position scarcity as well.
I wasn’t exactly sure how long I would wait, but I targeted a few guys whose ADP was fairly “high” and that I saw go relatively late in previous drafts. Maybe people tend to forget about him or they just don’t have confidence in his ability to either retain the job all year or repeat last season’s success, but I sort of like Padres shortstop Everth Cabrera and threw him into my queue. Not only does he have a 245 ADP on Mock Draft Central and a 225 ADP in NFBC play, but he also received a bit of an endorsement from Bud Black who said the job was his to lose since prospect Jedd Gyorko was likely to be at the keystone.
Another player, who also happens to be a favorite of mine and maybe a bit of an Achilles heel in fantasy is Cabrera’s teammate Cameron Maybin. His stolen bases took a significant drop last season, but he still swiped 26 and had 40 just the year before. He’s one of those guys I continue to draft with a sigh and say “someday,” but really, I do believe that he has the tools to succeed and return to the 40-plus stolen base range this season. He’s got a 143 ADP on MDC but then a 231 ADP over in the NFBC. Given his name, the hype he once had and where he’s gone in the handful of mocks I’ve already done, I figured I would have to lean towards the MDC side on this one. Not to mention, in another industry mock I did, there was plenty of positive chatter from some very respectable names when I snagged him in the 14th round.
While I had grabbed a couple of guys capable of swiping maybe 10 bags each in my earlier rounds, I didn’t want to risk losing out completely on a potential burner. With outfield thinning out, I grabbed Maybin in the 13th round. It’s possible that I could have gotten him a round or two later, but I really didn’t see anyone else on the board that I truly coveted and couldn’t wait. As for Cabrera, he was easy pickings in the 19th round as there were still a handful of shortstops that were surprisingly still available in the later rounds. In the 20th I found Starling Marte available, and he too is capable of 12-15 steals.
So all in all, the method of waiting on steals went ok, in my opinion. I’ve got solid power, a respectable pitching staff, and if this mock were to turn into an actual league, I would definitely remain competitive in the steals category. I would, however, have to fill in with some waiver guys like a Jarrod Dyson or Tony Campana later on in the season to make a jump as the category always seems to be quite movable each year, but that’s definitely doable, provided I wouldn’t have to drop someone I like off my bench. But that’s too difficult to predict at this point. Once the draft kit comes out (I’m told first week of next month) and my entire team is revealed, we can re-visit and get some more thoughts on the matter.
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over 10 years on a variety of websites. In addition to his work here, you can also find him at his site, RotobuzzGuy.com, Fantasy Alarm, RotoWire and Mock Draft Central. Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for more direct questions or comments, email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com
a couple more OFs who could steal 25+ bases, with NFBC ADPs: michael saunders (249), drew stubbs (251) and will venable (329)
Like Stubbs a lot. The Ks are obviously bothersone but as a Tribe fan I’m hoping for a return to at least a .250 average this year. The steals are great though especially if you can get him in the late rounds.
The other reason to eschew steals is that a significantly higher percentage of the league-season total comes from undrafted sources than does the percentage of home runs.
The main reason I ignore them is that they aren’t strongly correlated with the other stats. But that’s almost an argument in favor of preferring a leadoff like Bourn to an 8 hole like Revere.
HR are obviously closely linked to R and RBI production. High HR players generally bat no lower than 5th, so you make out well with PAs too. SB’s are loosely correlated with AVG, and correlated with runs only if the player also bats at the top of the lineup (which is a boon for PA obviously).
So power bats generally produce in 3-4 categories. Speed guys produce in 1-3 categories.
jdbolick more or less nailed it. Steals not contributing to other stats means nothing at all if you are evaluating players properly because you’ll have already taken that into account. The truth is almost every player coming into the league has speed, very few have power and the majority do not have AVG or bat in the middle of lineups to get R/RBI. Speed by far is the easiest category to make up mid season and you are going to get it on accident whether you want it or not.
Not sure if anyone ever says this but we really do appreciate follow up pieces like this, particularly when it comes to different draft strategies.
Agreed!
I’ve advocated power, power, and power early (or at least a 5 cat guy) because steals can be had for cheap.
But I feel like you can pluck 20 homer guys off the wire just the same, so I’m not sure it really makes a difference what you focus on. I think the argument would be that the premiere power guys will be more consistent with their power year to year than SB guys are. But I’m not even so sure of that.
Last year you coulda plucked Altuve or Chris Davis late in the draft. Everth Cabrera or Josh Reddick. There’s always sleeper talent if you know where to look. I think what made/makes Bourn retain his value has been his SB consistency. You can bank on 40-50+ SB year in-year out……until the year he doesn’t do it of course.
When you pluck a 20 HR guy off the waiver wire, it might be someone like Darin Ruf who will bat 7th and get subbed out or platooned with some frequency.
In my argument above, I take power because it means I’m getting 3 or 4 categories of production. However, if I’m on the waiver wire, the typical power bat will give me only HR’s while a steals guy could still contribute R and AVG.
also, just because you CAN find a SB waiver gem, doesn’t mean you will. someone else might. it’s just like when people tell you to wait on saves–that assumes you don’t play with a bunch of freelance writers who have nothing better to do than sit around and snatch up every guy who twitter even mentions is within sniffing distance of the 9th inning. let’s call it the waiver wire fallacy.
Power that isn’t going to really hurt your other categories always goes first, gotta get some of that before you grab a Bourn-esque player. Your restraint is admirable, as is your willingness to try something different. I wish I could say for certain that I would abandon my preferred style to try out something different. Huzzah.
Positional strategy is something to keep in mind, IMO. If Troy Tulowitzki and his injuries are not your cup of tea, it probably pays to use SS as one of your main sources of steals. In addition to Everth Cabrera, you can probably get Alcides Escobar fairly late and Jean Segura very late. It’s not a bad idea to target Altuve at 2B later in the draft. An up-the-middle combo of Escobar and Altuve should get you between 60 and 70 steals between the two and you can concentrate on power at all other positions early in the draft.
I hate planning around getting something like that later in the draft. Other owners could have the exact same plan and leave you with a broken draft.
This is also why I prefer auctions. If my strategy revolves around me winning Altuve and Segura, then I can position myself as king of dollar days and auto-win them. Or nominate them early and pay a little extra.
Yeah, you don’t have to deal with that in an auction, but I like to think of it as both styles bring different strategy challenges.
So, if someone grabs and Altuve or Segura early, that means someone else who most people think is better falls to you. It’s not like extra shortstops are going to be drafted in utility positions, so it’s likely to be just 1 SS per team.
Also, if your draft plan falls apart, you can always fall back on picking up steals in season.
Last year I picked up Desmond Jennings off the FA market and teamed him with McCutchen and Cespedes, who I already had, to be competitive in steals in my H2H league.
I don’t really have any leagues shallower than 36 MI (usually about 40 get drafted), so this doesn’t hold up for me.
In a 4 x 4, 20 team auction league, if Reyes goes for $45 and Andrus $36, what does E. Cabrera go for?
Those $ are similar to my league. Obviously much depends on the league and how Cabrera hits in the Spring. If he’s batting leadoff and hitting like he did at the end of the year, I would guess as high as $18.
It doesn’t matter because your league is clearly terrible already~. But yeah I’d rather have Cabrera at like $10 than either of those guys.
I’m not sure how you can tell their league is terrible. The high prices are a result of the Winner’s Curse. Any 20 team league is going to be rife with overpaid players.
a big part of the reason for waiting on SB is that they become available throughout the season. it is hard to quantify this when drafting. usually, I target to be projected somewhere around middle of the pack in SB and at the top of the other categories.
How are you guys getting the NFBC ADP?
by being in an NFBC league
Here’s my issue with the ‘wait for steals’ approach. It actually leads to an UNbalanced team because you purposefully hoard more power early and have to get speed later…which is usually LOW-QAUALITY speed. (Meaning sacrificing avg or rbi to the extreme.)
Yes, Campana gave me a boatload of steals in very short order last year (injuries wrecked my season). But while he did that I was losing ground in other categories, and my ‘power guys’ would have to more than match the same roster spots around the league.
I’d much rather approach early picks taking a guy like Votto over Fielder even though he has less power. If you get 8 sb from just 5 extra roster spots, that’s 40 bags that other teams are trying to ‘make up’ with one guy. Ben Revere could do it, but that’s 0 home runs from an OF slot.
The ultimate risk is consolidation imo. You draft Stanton and Revere to get your 50/50 and I’ll take Justin Upton and Choo to get the same output with likely better average, RBI, Runs. Plus, if I lose one of my guys to injury there are far more replacement options than if you lose one of yours.
Taken to the extreme, for illustration sake, I’d much rather have a team of 20/20 guys than a slew of 40/0 guys balanced with 0/40. And that’s what I hear with the whole ‘speed is available late’ strategy. Seldom do you get optimal rbi/run totals when driving your strategy on hr/sb. That’s what 17 years of fantasy baseball has taught me.
Excellent points Jimbo. Sure, cheap speed can be found, but at the sacrifice of 3, or maybe even all 4 of the other categories from that roster slot. When i’m drafting, I’m looking for my average player to provide whatever is necessary to win the league in each category based on prior season’s results. For my leagues, they are generally 12 or 14 team, 5×5 with 10 starting hitter slots and 200 start maximums from pitchers (approximately 6-7 starters needed). The average offensive player that I need is usually around 25 HR, 16-17 SB, and a .280 AVG. Balanced run production in the mid 80’s on average is needed, but I think, generally, if you manage the HR, SB, and AVG categories well during your draft, the R and RBI categories will fall into place. My favorite strategy is to try and focus on offensive players that have the potential to give you solid production in 4 or 5 categories. I’d actually rather let Cano slide and draft Pedroia one or two rounds later because he gives me more balanced production. That way, I don’t have to make up for the lack of SB by drafting someone like Ben Revere who is really only a lock to give you 1 category, 3 in a best case scenario.
I got Everth Cabrera at $5 and was very happy with that filling a position and stat need for just $5 is awesome