Is There Hope For Brandon Belt?
Brandon Belt is entering a critical year. A former top prospect, it would be fair to say that Belt hasn’t lived up to the hype during his one and a half seasons in the majors. As we know, it’s not entirely his fault. Despite Belt’s billing as an impact prospect, he hasn’t been utilized in a full-time role all that much. But entering his age-25 season, Belt will go into the season with no competition for the San Francisco Giants’ first base spot. Playing for a team that has shown little patience with his struggles in the past, Belt is going to have to prove that he has what it takes to make it as a big league first baseman.
First basemen who have posted similar numbers to Belt’s at the same age do give some reason for optimism. Belt hasn’t been awesome during the last two years, but some very talented first basemen struggled just as much as Belt early in their careers. When sorting by wRC+, some players with similar value to Belt include Todd Helton, Derrek Lee, Justin Morneau and Rafael Palmeiro. Some of those players were, at one point, considered some of the best players at their position over a decent stretch of time. And Morneau might have been even longer if he hadn’t sustained that terrible concussion, but that’s another article. There are some busts on that list, of course, so it’s no guarantee Belt will get better. But, at the very least, the list does give us some evidence of talented first basemen struggling early in their careers.
What about the players who have employed a similar approach at the plate. When narrowing our search to focus on players with similar walk and strikeout rates, we see some interesting names appear.
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bob Robertson | 987 | 11.20% | 20.20% | 0.242 | 0.301 | 0.278 | 0.361 | 0.520 | 0.389 | 142 |
| Fred McGriff | 979 | 14.20% | 25.80% | 0.266 | 0.322 | 0.270 | 0.376 | 0.535 | 0.397 | 147 |
| Dave Kingman | 882 | 10.40% | 29.70% | 0.252 | 0.246 | 0.216 | 0.302 | 0.468 | 0.346 | 114 |
| Ike Davis | 750 | 11.90% | 22.50% | 0.189 | 0.325 | 0.271 | 0.357 | 0.460 | 0.355 | 123 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 764 | 10.50% | 24.00% | 0.209 | 0.337 | 0.278 | 0.353 | 0.487 | 0.361 | 121 |
| Brandon Belt | 681 | 10.90% | 23.90% | 0.159 | 0.329 | 0.259 | 0.344 | 0.418 | 0.332 | 112 |
| Derrek Lee | 782 | 10.20% | 24.70% | 0.193 | 0.309 | 0.258 | 0.336 | 0.450 | 0.340 | 100 |
| Justin Smoak | 886 | 11.40% | 22.10% | 0.157 | 0.265 | 0.227 | 0.316 | 0.385 | 0.309 | 93 |
The first thing that jumps out on that list is the number of current players at the position with the same skill set. Belt, Ike Davis, Paul Goldschmidt and Justin Smoak have somewhat similar numbers, and have put them up during the same era and at similar ages. Since we’re dealing with players roughly the same age, that makes it tough to predict how Belt will perform. Bob Robertson and Fred McGriff also present problems, as both guys were much better than Belt at the same age. And while Dave Kingman has nearly the same wRC+ as Belt, the different in strikeout rate is too much to compare, in my opinion. That leaves one of the guy mentioned initially, Derrek Lee.
Both Belt and Lee displayed similar numbers during their age-23 and age-24 seasons. The only area where we see a large difference is slugging percentage, where Lee’s .450 was a good deal better than Belt’s .418. And that is a legitimate concern, as Belt’s lack of power has been troubling at this stage in his career. Lee managed to hit .282/.346/.474 during his age-25 season, with 21 home runs. Those numbers were actually a downgrade for Lee, who hit much better the previous year. Belt has yet to accomplish those heights as a player, making it tough to use Lee’s age-25 season as a great predictor for Belt. Plus, even if it’s reasonable for Belt to match Lee’s average and on-base percentage, he won’t be nearly as valuable if he doesn’t develop his power.
Belt has shown an ability to hit for power in the minors, but he’s had difficulty carrying it into the majors. There’s been a lot of talk about the Giants trying to make him change his swing, which could have been a contributor to Belt hitting just seven home runs last season. He might be able to turn himself into a useful real-life first baseman even with below-average power for a first baseman, but he won’t be fantasy relevant until he flashes the ability to club 20 home runs. There’s evidence that similar players have gone on to be successful, but the lack of power adds another obstacle Belt must overcome in order to emerge.
Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.
I am so sick of reading the accusation that the Giants have not been patient with Brandon Belt or that they have not handled him properly!
He got rushed to the majors to open the 2011 season due to an injury to Cody Ross and probably some irrational exhuberance on the part of Giants management. He looked totally lost at the plate and was sent down to AAA with some specific mechanical things to work on. He was brought back up and promptly broke his hand. He was brought back again late in the season after the injury healed and he had played some rehab games in the minors. He actually hit quite well as the 2011 season wound down.
In 2012, he played in 145 games and 472 PA’s. He was the regular first baseman for most of the season except on days when Buster Posey played first base, something the Giants can hardly be blamed for wanting to do in order to rest Posey’s legs, yet keep his bat in the lineup.
There have been occasions where they gave him a day or two off after an extended series of terrible AB’s followed by even worse body language. I look at those days off as positives. The Giants have always brought him back after time off for specific reasons and specific tasks he was asked to work on.
Contrary to popular opinion, I believe the Giants have handled Brandon Belt very well and have been extaordinarily patient with him.
I am optimistic that we will see continued improvement in 2013 with a possibility of a breakout season.
I don’t think Belt will ever be a typical power hitting first baseman. The things he (potentially) does well are not traditional 1B attributes: defense, good base running, and patience at the plate. Approach wise, I think Belt is more valuable as a player who can get on base, and run and play his position well, rather than a perennial 20 plus HR guy.
The problem is, those skills are easier to come by than power and have little fantasy relevance. There’s nothing special about Belt’s average, his power is nonexistent, and his steals aren’t worth more than a second glace on the waiver wire. His peers, Ike Davis and (especially) Paul Goldschmidt, do what he does, and better.
Belt is, seemingly, a classic example of a toolsy player who had a fluke minor league season and was mistaken to be more advanced than he was. He’s no “first basemen of the future”, he’s a placeholder until a legitimate impact prospect or major league starter comes around.
I still think there is 25+ HR’s in Brandon Belt that we could see as soon as 2013.
Sorry DrB. He’s been handled poorly and with little support. Ever wonder what would have happened had Pablo not hurt himself doing the splits? Bochy had given up on Brandon. But for an injured Panda, he was going to get another prolonged benching or demotion. It’s a “popular opinion” because it was so.
You are going to judge an entire body of development based on speculation about something you think might or might not have happened? I just don’t accept that!
At the beginning of the season, after being promised the starting 1B job, he would sometimes go 5-6 games without starting. THAT can mess with someone’s head.
What can mess with someone’s head is going 5-6 games striking out 50% of the time. He only went 5-6 games in a row off once or twice. The time off was needed to clear his head and work on specific mechanical adjustments.
‘I am so sick of reading the accusation that the Giants have not been patient with Brandon Belt or that they have not handled him properly!’
Hear hear.
I agree with both posts. I feel that Brandon belt has been better as of late. Just look at his 2nd half in 2012 and the defence he is showing honestly has me excited. I look forward to seeing Brandon belt and Brandon Crawford develop. Crawford also had a pretty good 2nd half and those defensive plays in the playoffs. I can see both Brandons winning a gold glove sometime during their respective careers.
I think this is a dishonest assessment of Belt. First baseman or not, the guy had a wRC+ of 118 last year despite sporadic playing time, since his manager’s an absolute cretin. And that was with absolutely NO power at all – even if the guy only slightly ups his power (as he seemed to toward the end of the year) we’re looking at a fairly above average player. Also, his line drive rate in the second half was 29.7%. Anybody else believe in that BABIP?
So Bochy has won 2 World Series in the last 3 years and he’s a cretin? I think you might be pointing your finger the wrong direction here. Also, I would not call 476 PA’s worth of PT “sporadic.”
I would add that those 2 WS that Bochy won were with one of the best young homegrown cores of players in baseball, so don’t even think about coming back with a “Bochy can’t develop young players” accusation.
The Bruce Bochy bashing crowd is just grasping at straws at this point. Keep fighting the good fight, my man.
Bochy is good at bullpen and pitcher management. Nothing else. Hector Sanchez is under no circumstances a better choice than Brandon Belt. Ever.
2012 Playoffs
Hector Sanchez 4 G 13 PA (4 of which were in WS gm3 which Belt also started)
Brandon Belt 15 G 56 PA
For all of his tomfoolery in the regular season Bochy puts the best players out there consistently in the playoffs. He is not a cretin.
Ben,
Buster Posey was coming off an injury that could easily have been career ending. Nobody knew how his ankle would hold up over the course of the season. There was no way Posey was going to catch 140 or 150 games. It was not a choice between Belt and Sanchez, but a choice between Belt and Posey on days when Posey was not catching.
What Ben here is saying, though perhaps he don’t realize it, is that he prefers Belt over Posey, the reigning MVP, in the lineup.
Anyone expect DrB to not be doing what he’s doing? Dodger fans had the same hope for James Loney once upon a time. Slightly different skills, as Loney was never as patient and also didn’t K like Belt, but we were always hopeful back in 2008-09 that he’d figure out how to hit for more power and he just stayed James Loney.
For fantasy purposes, Belt is a last resort injury replacement on a team that has been laid to waste by injury and not much more.
Did I anywhere say I would be drafting Brandon Belt for my fantasy team? Being optimistic about the continued development of a player is not the same as advocating for drafting him for fantasy.
This is a fantasy blog…
And no. All I was commenting on was the shared sympathy for the shred of hope for a player that probably won’t turn into what the fan base hopes he will. 25 HR in SF is pushing it for anyone on that roster.
I do not think is a foregone conclusion that Belt will continue his development as a hitter, but he certainly looks like a hitter who is still in the process of development. Thus, I continue to believe that there is much more than a “shred of hope” that he will become an offensive asset and a player you might want on your fantasy team. Time will tell.
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To be honest, I think we are looking at a James Loney clone. At 6’5″ 220+ he should be hitting the ball out of the park, even at this age. To me his ISO of .333 is a fluke, he only had 61 PA. With over 200 PA in 2011, it dropped to .218. I think he has a lower floor than Loney because his K rate and his upside is D Lee (other than his 2 outlier seasons). .280 23HR
It’s pretty hard to hit balls out of the park when you look at fastballs down the middle of the plate and swing at breaking balls that hit your back foot, which is what Belt has done for much of his short MLB career. He is showing improvement in his pitch selection. He could be James Loney II, but I think it’s still too early to consign him to that just yet. He is still on a fairly steep learning curve.
Belt’s LD rate went from 13.8% to 25.6% in 2012, and he was hitting fewer ground balls. His HR/FB rate was 6%!!! That’s ridiculously low, so either his swing creates top spin, or 3Com is sucking up fly balls, or both, but I would be amazed if that rate holds steady in 2013. His BABIP was over .350 but he still has a high swinging strike rate which counters that. Yes he drew walks but still swings at too much junk; pitchers have figured out you don’t need to throw fastballs to get him to swing.
He might surprise a few people this year if he learns at the rate he needs to.
Ummm…. yah make that AT&T Park. Just realized I was 12-13 years behind on my stadium comment.
Really, everybody here complaining about Belt should read this article that is at a site that you all should know :^)
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/brandon-belts-turning-point/
This is why I don’t like generalists writing about specific team’s players. They often don’t know the details that can make the difference in trying to judge what is happening with a player, instead of just repeating a tired meme of “The Giants mishandles Belt”.
FYI, it was the Giants who saw the potential in Belt, they drafted him in the 5th round and all the experts questioned that of a weak-hitting firstbaseman, then went about changing his mechanics, which suddenly made him a top prospect and suddenly everybody else knew how to handle Belt better than the Giants. Please…
If you think that giving someone a job and then keeping him on the job when he’s not doing the job is the best way to motivate him to perform to the level needed, you are clearly are not manager material. You can only give him so much rope before you need to step in and take him out of the job. Even Lou Gehrig didn’t have lifetime job security.
On top of that, there is barely any mention about the fact that the Giants had been asking Belt since the start of the 2012 season (at minimum, potentially since 2011) to make certain key changes to his approach and mechanics, changes he refused to follow until around mid-last season. That is a huge part of any discussion about Belt as a prospect or as a fantasy player. Any Giants fan staying on top of the local writers blogs would have known all the details. He finally started listening to the Giants somewhere mid-season, something he refuses to acknowledge in interviews, but the local press has discussed the Giants opinion on this enough to know that he was just blind to suggestions (apparently once he became successful in the minors, as he was open to their changes when he was a nobody).
Another problem I have is people tend to focus only on the players last season, as if that defines the total sum of him as a player. He had 9 homers in 187 AB in 2011, a great 21 AB/HR rate. It is common prospecting rule that once he exhibits the skill, he owns the skill, only that he needs to repeat that skill now. So he clearly has power, he was just messed up last season.
His main problem seems to be melding his power with his good hitting. After struggling his first two months of 2012, he hit .289/.365/.447/.812 the last four months. While he still didn’t have HR power, I would take that at 1B for him, along with stellar defense, that’s no Loney baloney.
In addition, Belt would be good for anyone’s roto-bench. He should hit for some power – probably. He has been struggling to find his swing, and really, battling himself, if you have been following him closely enough. But as I noted, he had 9 HR in 187 AB in 2011, so he can muscle up when he’s going good, he’s just struggling to bring together his power to go with his on-base abilities. Still, after struggling hard his first two months, in his last four months he hit .289/.365/.447/.812 with 7 HR in 311 AB, not great HR power, but I would view that more as his downside (double digit homers playing mostly full-time) and the 21 AB/HR rate he had in 2011 as his upside. He’ll probably fall in-between.
On top of that, he also steals bases pretty well. He ran well in the minors and continue to do so opportunistically in the majors. Barring any injury, he should continue to get in the teens in steals.
So if you can use a mostly full-time starter, who can play both LF and 1B, hit low to mid double-digits in HR and steals, with upside of 20-30 HR, plus good BA, OK runs, and OK RBI, he would be a good add to your bench for when your starters are sitting, or if you lost out on good 1B by focusing on other positions, he wouldn’t be a bad choice to have around for 1B for you.
He’s also a good sleeper for keeper leagues. His upside is a Joey Votto type player who hits a lot of homers, hit for a good average, lots of runs and RBIs, steals a pretty good amount of bases for a 1B (some roto players – like me – once all the high SB players are gone, construct a lineup of 10-20 steal players to cumulatively get a high amount). I think that potential is still there, not because I’m a Giants fan, but because he has demonstrated this skill in the minors, and while he hasn’t put it all together yet in the majors, he has shown snippets of all those skills at various times in the majors, meaning that if he can put it all together, he’ll reach this potential.
One very positive sign is that his contact rate improved greatly as the season went on, and for long periods (30+ game stretch) he maintained his contact rate above 85% later in the season, before dipping down again. I would remind Giants fans that Matt Williams struggled with this for 3 seasons before he became the consistent homerun hitter he is today. Not that Belt is necessarily similar, just that it is not unusual to see a player struggle over a number of season starting his career, before putting it all together.
I think the Giants have handled Belt about right. Sometimes life dictates someone loses (in this case Belt) in order to keep a better bat (Posey) in the lineup. Many Giants fans failed to recognize that, thinking it was Hector vs. Belt, but no, it was all about keeping Posey in the lineup. Does anyone really have a problem with that?
Also, many fans don’t appear to keep up with the news about Belt. Giants management talked about his struggles and his interviews indicated a mustang refusing to listen or to acknowledge that he needed the changes. His interviews make it seem like he finally figured it out on his own. But the writers did a good job of keeping the readers informed about why he was not being started regularly at that time. As he got better, he got more playing time, and when he got pretty good in their eyes, they began starting him in LF to keep his bat in the lineup when Posey was starting at 1B. That’s where they left off at the end of the season and why the Giants are talking a lot about playing him in LF in order that they can keep his bat in the lineup when Posey is starting at 1B.