Prospects Help: Batting Average
You’ve probably grown accustomed to long prospect profiles in my Friday morning spot, but I will be changing the layout of my posts until the start of the season to give you more practical fantasy advice for the upcoming season. I won’t be talking about draft position, ottoneu, or auction prices, rather I’ll breakdown which prospects can help your team in each of the traditional fantasy categories. Each week I’ll give you No Doubt, Overrated, and Sleeper picks.
Today, I’m starting with BATTING AVERAGE. Remember, I’m not evaluating a player’s prospect status. I’m discussing their ability to affect a single statistical category in 2013 relative to expectations.
No Doubt. Wil Myers.
Myers offers fantasy owners something Oscar Taveras and Jurickson Profar do not, security. While all three are equally superb – and Profar is superb and an awful position – it appears that only Myers will have a chance to earn playing time out of spring training. Yes, the Tampa Bay Rays have payroll constrictions that will almost certainly keep Myers in the minors through April. But, if the Rays intend to contend they would be foolish to keep him at Triple-A Durham for past May. So long as he maintains his selective approach, I do not foresee Myers struggling upon arriving at Tropicana Field. Myers has the best hands in the minor leagues, and if you aggressively pursue him he will undoubtedly help your batting average in head to head and rotisserie leagues.
Overrated. Oscar Taveras
Initially I selected Taveras as my No Doubt talent, but while Oscar Taveras has the best pure hitting ability in the minors, I decided to go with certainty (Myers) over upside. The decision was predicated on one major reason, playing time. I’m concerned that Taveras’s Major League playing time in 2013 is contingent on teammates’ injuries. In 2013, the Cardinals had the second best outfield in the National League with Matt Holliday (5.1 WAR) and Carlos Beltran (3.6 WAR) flanking center fielder Jon Jay (4.1 WAR). Jay posted impressive statistics in consecutive years and General Manager John Mozeliak would be crazy to replace him with the unproven Taveras. If Taveras is going to make it into your weekly or daily lineup, he’ll need to play every day. While an injury is far from an outlandish possibility, it is clear obstacle. Taveras is a great prospect, far better than I thought he would become, but be wary of him of overpaying for someone who may spend a lot of time at Triple-A.
HM: Nick Castellanos, Anthony Rendon
Sleeper. Positional Battles!
Ok, that’s not a player. I’ve struggled with how I should address this paragraph. We’re discussing 2013 so deep keepers are irrelevant. I want to discuss players who will actually see the field in 2013, but I’m not sure what would be informative for you. So please feel free to give me some suggestions on how to approach this section.
A few talented prospects could vie for a full-time role. For example, Kolten Wong is blocked by Daniel Descalso and Matt Carpenter. Wong just recently torched the Arizona Fall League and could provide your squad with a nice batting average boost. But, there are also lesser players to consider. The Mets’ outfield is barren, Nolan Arenado isn’t blocked, and Alex Castellanos could squirm is way into the Dodgers lineup too. Position battles create uncertainty and that gives you an opportunity to exploit.
Formerly of Bullpen Banter, JD can be followed on Twitter.
The Fans are currently projecting Myers to have a .261 batting average. .261 would be a negative affect on your fantasy team. What are you expecting?
And .261 might be a little on the optimistic side. Myers is a fantastic prospect over the long-term, but he had far from elite contact rates the last two minor league seasons. The strikeout rate and extraordinary BABIPs both suggest early struggles once he reaches the major leagues. Adam Eaton would have been a better choice for being a highly likely asset in batting average. Nolan Arenado would be a great one if you believe like I do that the Rockies’ other 3B options were lucky last season and will crash to earth. Who knows when he’ll get promoted, but I think it could be before June.
Arenado is mediocre and overrated.
I wish more people in my fantasy leagues shared your mistaken belief.
Taveras might have the best shot at playing time early in my opinion! Those Cardinal OF’s are not the healthiest of bunch, and Holliday and Beltran aren’t getting any younger, so they could get injured early on. Jay missed a lot of time the second half of the season.
I’m at work with limited internet access. IIRC the average OF in a 14 team league hit .270. I see Myers around .280-.290.
I see a near 25% K rate and less than a .370 BABIP. I don’t think he hits nearly that well.
Dan,we can disagree on his
Strikeout rate.
The injuries are possible, I just don’t advise you to expect one to happen.
In 2013, the Cardinals had the second best outfield in the National League with Matt Holliday (5.1 WAR) and Carlos Beltran (3.6 WAR) flanking center fielder Jon Jay (4.1 WAR.
I would like to hire you for some gambling propositions, young time traveler.
Ha! Thanks. I’ll edit it as soon as I can.
To be positive in a category don’t you have to be good at said category – not just play? I mean why not pick Brett Jackson. He’s going to play a lot. I feel pretty confident in saying Myers won’t break .270
My prospect picks that balance expected ABs AND skill:
O. Taveras – don’t overthink it. He’s an injury away and hardly has half the K rate of Myers. If we’re talking HRs, I’m behind you, but no way on BA. ~ 350 ABs.
N. Arenado – same skill set as Pacheco. bat on ball in BABIP inflating park ~300 ABs
C. Yelich – would be a big jump and don’t expect more than 200 ABs but little doubt on the BA skill
D,I don’t pretend I’m the only one with answers as some prospectors do. From what I’ve seen Myers has the ability – due to his great hands, bat speed, and a strong selective approach – he’ll got for a high average. Playing a lot does matter not matter if he is below average, but I don’t expect him to be.
I may be a fool, but in this case I am also ignorant. What does HM mean?
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Iqouxang:
please just go away — like, to the flea market or something. Your pushiness is rude.
Oh, iqouxang. Sigh. You had me at HELLO!!!
Anyone else want to beat Iquoxang over the head with his fake Air Jordan’s?!
Sorry – just had to get it off my chest
I’m not sure I could disagree more on Taveras being overrated and Myers being the no doubter. I look at Myers and see Jay Bruce with less power. I look at Taveras and see Adam Jones. Both are good players but the overrated/underrated label comes from the perception of each player. Myers is incredibly overrated in most circles these days because his pending callup was the talk of propsect world during the back half of last season. He’s been tearing up the PCL of all leagues. Casual fans have no idea who Taveras even is. How on earth could he be overrated?
It seems that your analysis focused on this year alone, in which case it makes more sense, but even so, Myers is probably the most overrated prospect in the entire minors given the unrealistically high expectations surrounding him at the moment. Oscar could easily be had in the last round of a nonkeeper.
AJ hi the nail on the head there, I got a good look at Myers in spring training last year and he will struggle with the K’s and is overrated just based on all the hype of his call-up last year. Taveras is not nearly known about like Myers and yet he will be the better major leaguer.