This morning, we published the results from rounds 6-10 in the early RotoGraphs mock draft. Apparently, I was asleep at the wheel because I missed the request for drafters, which is why you don’t see my name as a participant. Though it is unfortunate to miss another chance at experiencing the best part of every fantasy season, at least I can remain an unbiased observer. As the resident American League starting pitcher analyst, let’s go through those pitchers who were selected at this point in the draft, including where they were picked in last year’s RG mock, of which I did participate.

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When I look for deep stolen base sleepers, I typically look for a few telltale signs. Obviously, the player has to not be very well-known. However, I don’t think that’s necessarily as obvious as it might seem, as someone like Juan Pierre could very well be a stolen base sleeper.

But we’re looking for deep sleepers. We’re talking possible big league debut types, or guys who play on crummy teams that will run a lot. Guys hitting in front of the pitcher in the National League. Guys you just flat out don’t know much about. Let’s have a look. Read the rest of this entry »

Looking at the recent ridiculously early mock draft from a stony selection of the Rotographs raconteurs, I was A) quite pleased that I didn’t participate and subject myself to the scrutiny of the learned readers here and B) struck by the fact that third base continues to give me the heebee jeebees.

Third base has generally been my beat over the last twelve months for Rotographs and the implications of the 2012 season haven’t helped me rest well when thinking about the hot corner. While this year might welcome Chase Headley to the fantasy super-duper we also saw the departure of Jose Bautista due to eligibility, Kevin Youkilis due to Kevin Youkilis, Alex Rodriguez to the girl in the fourth row, and Michael Young to relevance.

And this gives me pause.

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After establishing himself as a strong fantasy performer over his first three full seasons, Matt Kemp turned on his nitro boosters and took his play to an entirely new level in 2011. That performance, which included just a home run short of 40/40, made him a top five pick in fantasy leagues last year. Unfortunately, a left hamstring strain cost him two months, but he still had himself another fantastic season while he was on the field. Fantasy owners haven’t forgotten what a full season of Kemp could provide — our own Alan Harrison took him fifth overall in the early RotoGraphs mock draft, but he wasn’t the only one to select Kemp among the top 10 players in recent mocks. He went sixth and seventh in two other industry mocks and sports an ADP of six on Mock Draft Central. But, are fantasy owners forgetting a key issue?

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As you have probably seen, we here at RotoGraphs have been doing a very early slow mock draft over the last few weeks. So far I’ve learned two things:

1. Second base gets really, really ugly after the first seven or so players come off the board.
2. There’s more question about Ian Kinsler’s value than you’d think.

There’s little argument that Robinson Cano is the consensus top second baseman available, and Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Brandon Phillips, Jason Kipnis, Ben Zobrist, & Aaron Hill are generally seen as the cream of the remaining crop, in various orders. But once you get past that group, it thins out quickly. Do you want to be the one hoping Marco Scutaro can repeat his shocking late-season resurgence, or seeing if Rickie Weeks can rebound from an atrocious campaign, or praying Dan Uggla can find his lost power, as I was? Read the rest of this entry »

The text came in on January 1, 2013 at 12:01 AM.

“Happy New Year! Michael Bourn in the 4th round? Dubious.”

“Happy New Year! Last of the true burners. Still a good value in roto-based leagues,” I responded.

“Juan Pierre in Round 20,” was what followed. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, the Cubs officially inked Edwin Jackson to a four-year contract. Good for Edwin, now he has a chance to actually be with one team for four seasons. In just 10 seasons in the Majors, he has been with a whopping 7 different teams! Let’s see how the move from Washington to Chicago might affect him.

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Our astute reader Jonathan noted the following about our recent mock draft at Rotographs:

Zim bought in quite a bit on down seasons 2-5

Yes, Jonathan, you are right. After gladly grabbing Cano with the 7th over all pick, I took the following down picks:

2nd Round: Hanley Ramirez
3rd Round: Justin Upton
4th Round: Adrian Gonzalez
5th Round: Jacoby Ellsbury

I decided to party like it was 2012 all over again by trying to balance down side with the hopes of huge gains.

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In our Ridiculously Early Mock Draft — still ongoing — my first two picks ‘around the turn’ were Troy Tulowitzki and Adrian Beltre. But Evan Longoria went one pick later and I was ready to take the down on their luck pair. A year ago, that duo would have been deemed a coup, most likely — a right side of the infield filled with sixty home runs and twenty-plus stolen bases and a good batting average. This year, the picks were met with critique.

As the “Two Month Tulo” moniker from that comment suggests, most of the problem is health-related. Though the Tulo and Longo are 28 and 27 years old respectively, there’s a sense that perhaps the projections are too plate-appearance heavy for two guys that have succumbed to major injuries in multiple seasons over their young careers to date. Health does seem like a skill, but because of the way projections work, it’s a skill that should be factored into every projection you see.

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With fantasy football coming to a close, no NHL and limited interest (for me, at least) in the NBA, mock draft season for fantasy baseball is in full swing. While some might think it early, now is probably the best time to start gauging interest in some of the players you were hoping to target this year. One player in particular that I am watching is Cleveland second baseman Jason Kipnis. I owned him in several leagues last year and would like to pick him up again for this season. His 14 home runs and 31 stolen bases should easily put him in the top 10 second basemen discussion, but with a .257 average and a brutal collapse, relatively speaking, in the second half, the hope is that his price tag won’t be too inflated. Read the rest of this entry »