Archive for February, 2012

Hanrahan’s Altered Approach and Fantasy Implications

On Wednesday I explained why Joel Hanrahan is a bit undervalued in comparison to John Axford. The next step I decided to take is to evaluate Hanrahan’s fastball to elaborate on why his success last year should continue this season as well. After all, Hanrahan had 269 innings in his career before the 68.2 he threw last year. Standard thinking would force one to believe his 209 ERA+ season was an outlier, as his career ERA+ is just 106.

However, as I explained in the article earlier this week, Hanrahan altered his approach on the mound. He turned into a fastball dominant pitcher, moving away from the fastball-slider combination he had utilized for the majority of his career. At least some credit must be given to Ray Searage, the Pirates pitching coach, and the rest of the group that decided this would be a much more effective way for Hanrahan to pitch.

Hanrahan’s Heater Freq. MPH Strike Ball BIP Whiff GB
Career 68% 96.11 61.65% 37.13% 17.29% 6.78% 7.67%
2010 61% 96.74 61.64% 37.07% 15.66% 6.32% 7.33%
2011 83% 97.82 63.62% 34.97% 19.88% 7.72% 10.18%

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Ben Duronio RotoGraphs Chat


First Time Ottoneu Owner – Draft Strategy and Rationale

On Tuesday night, we completed a second FanGraphs staff league Ottoneu draft, and after eight long hours — spread over two nights — I had my very first squad. I thought it might be fitting to have my first ever Ottoneu draft coincide with my first post at RotoGraphs, so feel free to skewer my decision-making but please keep in mind I was a first-timer.

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Mike Minor: Major Sleeper

Mike Minor is a forgotten man. The lefty is overshadowed by young studs like Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and Arodys Vizcaino within the Braves’ organization, and a career ERA closer to five than four in the majors over the past two seasons seemingly supplies ammo to those who panned Atlanta for playing it safe with the seventh pick in the 2009 draft. Fantasy folks certainly aren’t impressed, as MockDraftCentral’s latest ADP numbers have Minor going 308th overall, behind damaged goods like Carlos Zambrano and Francisco Liriano and just ahead of the Aaron Harangs of the world.

While it’s easy to recall the “low upside” label slapped on Minor when he came out of Vanderbilt and point to his unimpressive big league ERA as confirmation, that assessment ignores his superb minor league track record and promising peripheral stats in the majors. Minor, locked in to a back-of-the-rotation spot with the Braves, looks like one of the biggest sleepers in the game entering spring training.

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Chone Figgins and the Battle for Relevancy

Elsewhere, I’ve decried both the unfairness and the uselessness of the Mendoza Line. The TL;DR version is this: Mendoza was a bit player for the vast majority of his career, so naming the failure line after him for his one season as a regular –1979 with the Seattle Mariners — isn’t the most sporting of choices. As for its uselessness, it didn’t come up last season, but in 2010, Carlos Pena actually finished below the Mendoza Line with a .196 average. In doing so, however, he still managed a .732 OPS; hitting some 40 points better, but finishing with an OPS of .609 was Jose Lopez. Positional considerations aside, who would you rather have? Read the rest of this entry »


Help Me Win LABR Mixed League!

The fantasy baseball industry has two primary high-profile expert leagues. The League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) was formed in 1994 by John Hunt of USA Today’s Baseball Weekly, before it became Sports Weekly. In the past, it has only included an AL-Only and NL-Only league. Then in 1997, the “bearded one” Ron Shandler, publisher of the Baseball Forecaster and founder of Baseball HQ, created Tout Wars with an AL-Only and NL-Only version, with a mixed league added in 2005. This league was of course made famous by the book “Fantasyland”. This year, Steve Gardner and USA Today have decided to expand LABR to include a mixed league. I am excited to announce that I have been invited to participate in the inaugural LABR mixed league, which I have obviously accepted.

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$1 Option: Adam LaRoche

The Nationals spent a good portion of the offseason trying to woo Prince Fielder to the nation’s capitol even though they already had a pretty good first baseman in place. That first baseman is Mike Morse, not the $16M man Adam LaRoche. LaRoche missed all but 43 games of 2012 due to a torn labrum and rotator cuff in his left shoulder, an injury that completely sabotaged him at the plate (.258 wOBA in 177 PA) during his first year in Washington.

The 32-year-old LaRoche is now close to nine months out from surgery and working his way back in Spring Training. He told Mark Zuckerman that swinging the bat is not a problem (though he has yet to face live pitching), but he still hasn’t cut it loose when throwing. Since Morse can play the outfield, the Nats will have no problem fitting both men in the lineup if they make it through camp healthy and deserving of regular playing time.

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Top 100 Fantasy Prospects for 2012: 80-61

From Dave Sappelt to Liam Hendriks.

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Seven Lessons from an ottoneu Auction

After part one of the auction for the Second FanGraphs Staff League, I took some time to look back at the strategy I set up going into the auction, and to re-strategize for day two, based on where I was.

And looking back, I’d have to say I executed pretty well, although not always in the ways I expected.

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Kicking Rocks: Lip Service

You’re gonna have to learn your clichés.  You’re gonna have to study them, you’re gonna have to know them. They’re your friends. Write this down:  “We gotta play it one day at a time…I’m just happy to be here and hope I can help the ballclub…I just wanna give It my best shot and, Good Lord willing, things’ll work out.”Crash Davis

While the influx of baseball chatter and interviews is sincerely welcomed at this time of year, we, as fantasy owners, must maintain a clear head and corral that child-like jubilation that a new baseball season brings.  You’re going to hear a number of comments regarding players and teams from both coaches and general managers, as well as from the players themselves.  You’re going to hear things that get you excited about a particular player and if you don’t take things with a grain of salt, you could get swept up in the pomp and circumstance of spring training, lose sight of what’s actually in front of you, and fall victim to the hype.

So with that, let’s look at some common phrases you’ll hear and how you might want to react to them. Read the rest of this entry »