Help Me Win LABR Mixed League!
The fantasy baseball industry has two primary high-profile expert leagues. The League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) was formed in 1994 by John Hunt of USA Today’s Baseball Weekly, before it became Sports Weekly. In the past, it has only included an AL-Only and NL-Only league. Then in 1997, the “bearded one” Ron Shandler, publisher of the Baseball Forecaster and founder of Baseball HQ, created Tout Wars with an AL-Only and NL-Only version, with a mixed league added in 2005. This league was of course made famous by the book “Fantasyland”. This year, Steve Gardner and USA Today have decided to expand LABR to include a mixed league. I am excited to announce that I have been invited to participate in the inaugural LABR mixed league, which I have obviously accepted.
Our draft is the earliest I have ever had for a real league. It is this Sat night at 7 PM EST. Yes, this is what us fantasy baseball nerds do on our Sat nights. It is a 15 team league, with very standard rules. The starting roster is the typical 14×9 and adds a 6-player bench, with unlimited DL slots. We use weekly transactions and have a $100 FAAB to pick up free agents. Though the other expert leagues are all in-person auction drafts, this one is an online snake draft. The participants and draft order are below:
1. Mike Podhorzer – FanGraphs.com
2. Tom Trudeau/Craig Glaser – Bloomberg Sports
3. Fred Zinkie – MLB.com
4. Drew Silva – Rotoworld.com
5. Tim Heaney – KFFL.com
6. Bobby Colton – SportsGrumblings.com
7. Todd Zola – Mastersball.com
8. Steve Gardner – USA TODAY
9. Derek Van Riper – Rotowire.com
10. Doug Anderson – RotoExperts.com
11. Rudy Gamble/Grey Albright – Razzball.com
12. Ray Murphy – BaseballHQ.com
13. James Quintong – ESPN.com
14. Clay Davenport – ClayDavenport.com
15. Jonah Keri – Grantland.com
Yup, I actually have the first overall pick! Although that’s great and all, from past experience it sucks having two picks in a row. I usually scramble to even come up with one pick, now I have to figure out which two players I want every single time. I am still finishing up my projections and dollar values and won’t know who I value most until they are complete. I am fairly confident I know who that player is and who I will be drafting first though.
So now I ask you two questions:
-Who do you think I should pick #1?
Remember, this is a 15 team league. Contrary to popular opinion, position scarcity is typically less of a factor the deeper the league, as replacement levels between positions are closer. I know this is true in Only leagues, but have never calculated values for a mixed 15-teamer, so I am not 100%. Last Player Picked though has the top catcher, Mike Napoli, and top second baseman, Robinson Cano, only losing a buck in value going from 12 to 15 team. So although I was technically correct, there is little difference. The more important point is that the values of players at scarce position don’t increase as some might believe.
-Are there any particular strategies you would advise given the level of competition?
In a league full of owners who know what they are doing and know their SIERAs from their FIPs, luck becomes a bigger factor. Any unique ideas that could potentially allow me to zig as others zag would be welcome.
I will be discussing the league throughout the season and will post about the draft as soon as I am allowed to. The results will be published in the annual USA Today fantasy publication along with the other LABR leagues, so I might have to be close-lipped until then.
Wish me luck!
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Kemp says he’s going 50/50. I believe him.
Good luck! I recommend ample bourbon, with Jose Oquendo highlights playing in the background, to put you in the drafting mood.
I usually go with Luis Guzman audition tapes and root beer.
Congrats, and go with Miguel Cabrera as your #1.
As for zigging when others zag…my only thought is snapping up elite starters or closers earlier than usual. You’re looking at the #30/#31 picks, and depending on who’s available (and how the other guys draft), pouncing on Felix / Lee / Lincecum if they’re still around could give you a big head start on pitching. With so many other experts, I’d have to think you’re less likely to get big-time-sleepers (Alvarez, Parker, Minor, et al.) late in the game.
Best of luck!
I’ve seen many first pickers employ this approach and grab SPs in the 2nd and 3rd. Even done it myself. It’s very tempting after you’ve just seen 25 hitters come off the board and have a chance to grab two elite pitchers. You might even feel good for a moment. Then you see another 20+ hitters go off the board before your next pick…
I’d wait on pitching as long as possible. I’d even consider a strategy of taking hitters with my first 10 picks. Pitchers (and probably some steals) will be available on the waiver wire — anyone with a chance of being an above-average power producer is going to be drafted by a league with this many experts. Fill out your bench with SP prospects who have a chance of coming up by June.
With 28 picks between yours, you’re going to get slaughtered by any sort of run on a position. There’s some freedom in that though. You can’t get tied up with trying to guess who may slip another round or, really, how you think anyone else in the league is drafting. You’re drafting best available player. Period. If you DO care about scarcity, then Tulo’s got to be your first pick and you can’t wait past pick #3 if you want a top-level catcher (yes, that means you’re probably not getting a top catcher).
If you don’t care about scarcity, then flip the Pujols/Cabrera coin and dive on in.
IMHO.
I agree with David on Tulo. He’s hands down #1 if you care at all about scarcity.
Bring on the runs! I love seeing them. Owners panicking and paying the draft round equivalent of $20 for a $15 player. Nothing ruins a team’s draft more than getting caught in a run. And zigging when everyone else is zagging here is how you win.
So uh… who you takin’ first?
🙂 Brandon Wood….THIS is the year. Just watch.
14×9 is 5 OFs, right? I think that’s where scarcity is going to come into play, as the difference between the 50th and 75th best OFs will probably be larger than the 10th and 15th best SSs.
You are correct, along with 2 catchers.
Positional flexibility is as important as positional scarcity in deep leagues. I agree OF will fall off fast with 75+ OFs going.
You also need big power numbers in that slot.
There is only one person who gives you all 3 of big power, positional scarcity and positional flexibility….
Jose Bautista
Most people will think I’m crazy, but his numbers were similar to Pujols last year, and hit 13 more homers than Miggy. Kemp is interesting, but I think most of us see a fall back in average and homers from last year. He’ll still be producing, but you can make up the steals with your 4th OF and middle infielders.
The flexibility will open up your player pool when someone goes on the DL, which might give you a higher level replacement.
i agree with the 2 above (although bautista wouldn’t be my recommendation). position flexibility is that much more important in a 15 teamer. also, since you’ve got 28 picks to wait before you’re next pick, another poster pointed out that you’re more vulnerable to position runs, which i think is another reason the flexibility can help you in addition to the obvious injuries/lack of talent for replacement level players.
forgot to add, that’s why i’d pick miggy #1, get the 1b/3b eligiblity soon enough that adds to your flexibility
I pick Kemp for the top pick. His impact as a five tool player is undeniable. His versatility will allow you as the draft goes on to fill up certain holes as the draft goes deeper. I personally like to load up on power early plus add a little depth at certain positions. For instance, I would take a late flier on someone like a Ryan Howard later instead of reaching for a Paul Konerko in the fourth or fifth round. Really evaluate the depth of certain categories at each position. Shortstop doesn’t have a lot of power, so maybe a category like steals will be more valuable to other people in your league, so you might see a run on that at some point. This year, i feel you really need a top second baseman. A good value pick is Brandon Phillips. His ADP would suggest you could maybe get him fourth round, probably not, but he helps across the board. When i did my personal rankings, I really had trouble coming up with 20 second baseman. I love Ackley and Kipnis as late plays, but there wasn’t much else to talk about. My last strategy to recommend is to really emphasize protecting your WHIP. I say a Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, Strasburg staff with a top closer and some sleeper closers thrown in make a great staff. I feel you can get strikeouts and wins is a pretty close category anyways. My ten team roto league I finished first last season with 89.5 out of 100 using this strategy. Good luck!
if everyone is equal at the start, you need luck and differentiation. Pick guys that randomly sucked last yr and will go low–Dunn, Crawford, Hanley, Rios, etc.
Ron Shandler’s extreme regression drafting!
I wholeheartedly agree with this. Adam Dunn is this year’s MVP… At least in terms of value (There is no where to go but up (or AAA)).
OK nevermind, take Braun
Umm yeah, wow! Seriously glad the decision was made today and we weren’t still left wondering during the draft. Now some lucky owner couldn’t get away with drafting him several rounds in.
Last player picked is a douche, fyi.
Very excited to follow along. I think based on the ZIPS projections released today that Tulo is the clear pick at #1. He’ll create an enormous advantage over at least 12 teams based on his position.
Any chance we could get a running draft diary? Good luck!
You don’t want a heavy injury risk like Tulo and you are correct that positional scarcity is overrated, especially with a 1st round pick. I personally really don’t want to walk out of the 1st round with no SB or a lower AVG imo. So I’d pick Kemp or Braun first. Braun if you want a safer pick, Kemp if you want the higher upside.
Braun/Kemp
Mr. POD;; if I was in your position I’d take a SP(or power “IF” available) & Lawrie on the 2/3 turn….as far as 1st pick I’d go with either Kemp or Braun….4/5 is where I like 2 “bookend” the best position’s’ available cause then you kinda dictate &/or make them wonder what you’ll do @ 6/7 which might open up some interesting options…. have fun & good luck
oops “IF” meaning Beltre or Zim along with Brett
Hi Mike,
glad you asked. set your targets ( http://sportsdraftdaily.com/2012/02/2012-nfbc-15-team-category-targets/ ), and try to draft a balanced team.
Miggy is your first pick because of the 1b/3b coming. and he is a monster.
if you think you need to punt a cat, saves should be the first to go. don’t finish last, but no need to draft three closers to make a run at first, either. 70-75 should be an easy target and cost little.
this is a link to a great write up on in-season team management; http://sportsdraftdaily.com/2012/02/dynamic-inertia-nfbc-in-season-review/
though with only $100 faab, your bids will be a lot smaller 🙂
against that group, i would try to draft a solid base, then, after the closer run, reach for big upside…heyward, belt, mayberry, l martin, sands, lavarnway, nicasio. whomever wins will have to play well and get lucky.
you will need to play the ‘2-start/week’ strategy to keep up in w’s and k’s, so plan for that pre-draft. come out of the draft w at least ten starters.
good luck
and thanks for posting all your pod projections, they are very helpful.
spitball
In a league with this many participants (and you being on the wheel), it almost doesn’t mean anything to say you want to “zig” when others “zag”; especially when dealing with experts. There’s going to be who knows how many different strategies, and chances are there won’t be many picks where someone panics on a position run. That means for the most part, the only thing you can do for sure to be different from them is to make bad choices.
You can take SP early, but if you only take one then you aren’t really doing anything particularly different than what many others will likely do. If you take 2 SP with your rounds 2 and 3 picks in a year with so much SP depth, that seems like a mistake.
You could take a Closer sooner than others would, but again, that seems like a mistake.
Maybe valuing SB more? Maybe that’s a way you can Zig without being dumb?
3B is deep this year. The additional flexibility Cabrera provides is always useful, but not as important. In fact, I think the bottom of the Top 15 at 1B is worse than the bottom of the Top 15 at 3B.
Do you want to have a good team, or do you want to have a team that’s riskier but with more potential? That makes a big difference when determining if you want to put up with Tulo’s risk first pick (and anyone else’s later).
Actually, I do think there’s another (small) way you can zig when others zag – catcher. I do NOT advocate taking one early. But I think taking your second one soon after your first one might be a good idea. If you’re in a 2 C league, your second catcher contributes to the team just as much as your first catcher, but gets taken from the same pool of players. Having a solid contributor there where other teams have a black hole is as valuable at 2nd C as it is at any other position. Obviously, sometimes there will be a better option than taking your 2nd catcher, but the default seems to be that once you get the first one, you wait a million rounds to grab your second one.
It’s similar with OFers. People often think “okay, I’ve got a couple OFers, so I’ll wait before grabbing my next one” while they fill other positions. But 4th OF is just as much a full position as your first SS, with the same contributions to your team. The additional value you get from your 4th OF compared to their 4th OF matters just as much.
Disagree on Cabrera, as I think he should be the clear #1 with the positional flexibility coming up. Completely agree as far as waiting on the first C a bit and then grabbing a second C fairly quickly, and similarly with OF.
I could see Cabrera as #1, but I don’t think it’s clear cut. Basically every projection shows Pujols putting up 5-10 more HR and SB. Does positional flexibility with a deep position more than make up for that? I don’t know.
Add one more to the ‘Take Miggy’ list.
Position scarcity and zigging and zagging aside, there is one rock solid play in the top 5, and it’s the guy who’s played 150+ games every years since he was 20 mashing 30 + bombs and 100 + RBI’s.
Pujols may need to adjust, Kemp might regress, Tulo may get injured, and Batista (IMO) is less certain than Miggy.
At the 2/3 turn your also open to taking another 3B (Wright, Beltre) or a !B/OF (Stanton/Hamilton/Tex). That’s some power hitting early in your draft.
Miggy didn’t hit 30 HR in ’06, and Pujols has only barely been under 150 games. Just sayin’…
Pujols may need to adjust – or the league may need to adjust to HIM. Hard to say. From what I can tell, his new ballpark is slightly more pitcher friendly in general, but might give him a couple more homers.
Cabrera and Pujols are both amazingly consistent. In Cabrera’s 5 best HR seasons, he hit 33, 34, 34, 37, and 38 HR. In Pujols WORST HR seasons, he hit 32, 34, 37, 37, and 37 HR.
It doesn’t really matter who you take first. You can’t win an expert league like LABR or Tout on Draft Day. You can lose it, but you can’t win it. Take the players you have confidence in and don’t try to outsmart the draft by trying to guess who everyone will take in front of you. Be aggressive with your FAAB during the season and it’ll all be good.
Very true. You’ll never have major regrets at the end of the season if you stay conservative.
Trace, is there any chance of you rejoining Tout Wars? You had some great seasons in 2004 and 2006.
Thanks, SS. I’m not sure I would call it conservative. What I mean is that if you really like a player, don’t wait to take him because you think he’ll be there in another few rounds. It’s a pyrrhic victory to predict a player will have a great year and then watch him bring the title to someone else because you thought he’d be available in round 6 or 7 instead of just taking him in round 5. Depth in the free agent pool is a strength of mixed leagues so the reward vs downside for taking risks in the draft is much greater than in AL/NL-only leagues. Along those same lines, usually only about half of “first round players” end up being worth a first round pick.
As for Tout, I doubt I’ll participate again but I might come up for the weekend to hang out.
I’m thinking Skip Schumaker would be a nice choice as the #1 overall pick. Positional flexibility can be very important in these leagues. I also heard that Matt Kemp was seen with Rihanna the other day. That can’t be good.
Hard to argue against Miggy with #1 with that 3rd base eligibility. Couldn’t fault you for taking Braun, Kemp, or Tulo though.
There is another relevant experts league…Ron Shandler’s XFL (XPerts Fantasy League). It is a 15-team keeper league with 40-man rosters, an auction Draft in November (23 players) and a supplemental Draft in March. Established in 2003, you can see details at fantasyXperts.com
Mike: Grab Braun. Take Kershaw if available; perhaps a second stud starter. Grab hitting with next six picks, feeling free to reach early for Sandoval or Jennings. Grab your closers and fill in with solid hitters and upside pitchers like Jansen, Minor, or Luebke. Good luck!
If you want to zig, draft out pitching and steals. Draft starters in the beginning, get a good base stealer at every position, and make sure you get five closers. You may not win the season, but you’ll be a tough out in the playoffs.
Mr Podorzer :
votre n° 1 est PUJOLS
bravo tres bon choix
vos pitchers : PINEDA / J GARCIA / J SANTANA / H BAILEY / ED VOLQUEZ / PAULINO
y a t il trop de risques dans cette rotation ?