Seven Lessons from an ottoneu Auction

After part one of the auction for the Second FanGraphs Staff League, I took some time to look back at the strategy I set up going into the auction, and to re-strategize for day two, based on where I was.

And looking back, I’d have to say I executed pretty well, although not always in the ways I expected.

Leaving day one, I had the following players: $22 Brian McCann, $35 Mark Teixeira, $24 Pablo Sandoval, $18 Shin-Soo Choo, $26 Hunter Pence, $4 Melky Cabrera, $27 Ryan Zimmerman, $6 Justin Morneau, $40 Tim Lincecum, $21 C.J. Wilson, and $16 Mat Latos. So I set out my remaining needs by position, my target players and the prices I wanted to pay. Below is a chart showing what I wanted and what I got:

Position Target Expected Price Actual Price Player Signed Price
C Ramon Hernandez $1 $1 Geovany Soto $8
C Devin Mesoraco $6 $8 Ryan Lavarnway $3
1B Ike Davis $6 $9 Anthony Rizzo $5
2B Jason Kipnis $10 $12 Jason Kipnis $12
SS Alexei Ramirez $10 $12 Jimmy Rollins $10
SS Stephen Drew $10 $6 Jhonny Peralta $12
MI Scott Sizemore $5 $3 Ian Desmond $4
OF Jason Heyward $20 $27 Andre Ethier $11
OF Logan Morrison $15 $16 Logan Morrison $16
OF Lucas Duda $4 $9 Carlos Quentin $4
OF Mike Carp $1 $3 Nolan Reimold $1
OF Brandon Belt $4 $8 Jeff Francoeur $4
SP Matt Cain $20 $22 Matt Garza $14
SP Cory Luebke $8 $11 Cory Luebke $11
SP Brandon Beachy $10 $11 Chad Billingsley $5
RP Jonny Venters $3 $9 Kenley Jansen $8
RP Huston Street $3 $4 Hong-Chih Kuo $1
RP Grant Balfour $2 $3 Rex Brothers $1
RP Vinnie Pestano $1 $7 Jesse Crain $1
RP Addison Reed $1 $3 Fautino De Los Santos $1
RP/SP Lance Lynn $1 $2 Felipe Paulino $2
RP/SP Dan Runzler $1 $1 Dan Runzler $1
RP/SP Marco Estrada $1 $2 Tom Gorzelanny $1
Pros Jurickson Profar $5 $6 Michael Choice $1
Pros Danny Hultzen $2 $3 Trevor Bauer $3
TBD       Kelly Johnson $8
TBD       Jacob Turner $2
TBD       Jake Peavy $2
TBD       Robbie Erlin $1

And this was my pre-auction plan:

  • Be patient
  • Avoid closers and grab relievers with SP eligibility
  • Pay up for guys with good doubles power
  • Pay up for top prospects
  • Target your sleepers and grab them late

And all-in-all, I think I executed pretty well, but there are definitely a few lessons learned, and hopefully you can all benefit from my experience.

1) Don’t be OVER-patient. Some of the guys I ended up passing on barely out-stripped the value I had set on them. I know most people say to know your price and not go over, but if I could have had Beachy at $12 instead of spending $7 combined on Billinglsey and Peavy to try to replace him, that would have probably been a better choice. Same thing with Matt Cain. Garza worked out okay, but Cain at $22 isn’t bad at all. Being over-patient also leads to my second point…

2) Don’t go on tilt. Check out this chain of MI events:
At 6:49, Alexei passed my target price and I decided to be patient. At 6:54, concerned that SS was getting thin, I paid $10 for Rollins, who I didn’t really want at that price (although I don’t think it is a bad price, per se). Then I got frustrated. I didn’t want Rollins, I was worried Drew would get too expense, and then I would have two over-priced injury risks at SS. So, two minutes later, at 6:56, when Jhonny Peralta came up, I decided he was worth $12. An hour later, Drew went for $6. Two minutes after that, I grabbed Ian Desmond to be my cheap MI backup, not really thinking that I now had three SS and no 2B. Which lead to Kelly Johnson coming up at 8:35 and me panicking that I would screw up 2B like I did SS, and grabbing him, even though the guy I wanted (Kipnis) was still out there. Twenty minutes later I got Kipnis, too. So now I have a deep, solid $46 MI. If I had reached for Alexei and then not lost my composure, I could have had the four guys I wanted for $33, which would have left plenty for me to add Johnson, Peralta or Desmond and STILL have spent less than I did on MI. I am fine with my MI, but I could have used those extra $12 to grab Beachy or Mesoraco, or even to have during the season.

3) Big-name relievers aren’t all bad. Jansen is exactly the type of guy I usually avoid, because people overpay for big time relievers, but at $8, he was half the price of most of the relievers who went on day one, and with the slight stumble my rotation took compared to expectations, I am glad I splurged there. Besides, when I realized that Venters cost more than Jansen and Pestano cost almost as much, I was quite happy I made that move.

4) Don’t pass on guys cause you “don’t like them.” Francoeur, Cabrera, and Desmond all fall into a group of players I just plain don’t like. That said, I had them all priced much higher than what I paid for them. We’ll see how that plays out, but right now I think that my willingness to pass on Duda and Belt, who I love, and instead take discounts on those guys, allowed me to spend on Jansen, and go the extra dollars on Morrison, Kipnis, and Luebke.

5) Know your foe. I should have been smarter about Belt, Duda, and Heyward. Stat-heavy fans (like, say, a group of FanGraphs writers, perhaps?) love those guys. Eno Sarris gives Duda so much love that anyone even in the vicinity of a FanGraphs article is excited about the guy. And sure enough, they all went for more than they typically would, but not more than I could have guessed, had I really thought about it.

6) Have a backup plan. When Heyward went way over my target price, I nearly went on tilt like I did at MI. Luckily Ethier fell into my lap, and Quentin stayed way lower than I would have guessed. But I didn’t have a backup plan to speak of, and it almost sunk my OF and rotation before they got going. I was sure I would get Heyward and Cain, positive I would have Duda, as well. None of it happened, and it almost got lucky. If you have targets, have a fill-in option, as well.

7) Don’t pass on a value outside your plan. I sort of planned for this by leaving four spots open, but I also shifted my plan at catcher when Soto stopped getting bids. I have Geo as a top-10 catcher, and while I only needed a backup, grabbing him here gives me a solid trade chip. If Lavarnway plays and hits, you better believe I will shop Soto or McCann to plaster any gaps that need plastering. Ramon Hernandez would have been a capable backup, but would not have been nearly as useful in a trade as Soto.





A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.

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Trey Baughn
12 years ago

On the day One review, I thought your league heavily overspent on several players ($41 Castro, etc.), but it looks like everyone realized that and did a good job holding the line on Day Two. Looks like there are some really nice bargains here. Davis ($9), Belt ($8), Ethier ($11), Garza ($14), and Street ($4) all look like good values, especially compared to what we saw in our league last year. Even the prospects look nice. Having both Hultzen and Bauer and $3 each should pay off nicely…

Trey Baughn
12 years ago
Reply to  Chad Young

I does make sense, but I was refering to their “actual” prices, which still look very good. An $8 Belt and $9 Ike Davis look like steals for whoever got them.

Trey Baughn
12 years ago
Reply to  Chad Young

Chad, is there a link to your league’s entire draft we can view?