Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – July 20, 2026

Justin Mason: Chat will begin at the top of the hour. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well! You can also join the Sleeper and the Bust discord! https://discord.gg/ar7XUV9T

Peter Castro: Hi Justin, Is Esmerlyn Valdez the real thing or is the Magician just a flash in the pan?

Justin Mason: The power is real, but other than that, no. He has a .220 xBA which is much more realistic considering his contact profile.

Justin Mason: I think this is a quad A type player on an unbelievable hot streak. Think Tyler Fitzgerald from a few years ago.

AU86: Lane Thomas or Dominguez ROS?  Redraft

Justin Mason: Dominguez

AU86: Marsee or Kwan ROS?  OBP league

Justin Mason: This is tough. Marsee if you need speed. Otherwise, Kwan

Mike: Is Raleigh cuttable in 12 team redrafts? Moreno would be a possible replacement

Justin Mason: I think he is. I don’t know if I could do it, but it is probably the right call.

AU86: 13 team mixed redraft using QS and K/9…please rank: Pfaadt, Liberatore, Urena

Justin Mason: Pfaady, Urena, Liberatore

JoeG414: In need of a Catcher ( One C Deep Roto)  Take a chance on Tyler Stephenson ? Sure I missed out on the homers in Coors ; but his hard hit rate has been up as well as his  Avg/Ops over the last three weeks.  Other Cold options are Yainer Diaz, Teel, Rushing, Heim. Thanks

Justin Mason: I think I would go with Stephenson while he is hot and stream the spot when he cools down.

Mike: Lane Thomas has been impressive lately. Is anything he’s doing standing out to you, or is this just a hot streak?

Justin Mason: This is probably a hot streak, but the underlying numbers over the stretch are good. Its too small of a sample to come to any conclusions that its real, but I would ride the hot streak for now. I think the difficult part will be when he is dealt at the deadline, he likely becomes a platoon player where ever he lands.

Christopher Gore: Hello! I have some roster crunch decisions to make soon due to injured pitchers returning! in a points league, pls rank the following ROS:

Christopher Gore: shoot! User error! ROS, points league, pls rank: Jake Bauers, Cags, JJ Bleday, Esmerlyn Valdez! Thx!

Justin Mason: Cags, Bauers, Bleday, Valdez

jimleylandpalmer: Would you rather use a spot in a 10tm H2H on Austin Reilly or Wilyer Abreu?

Justin Mason: Abreu

jt1229: 14 tm 6×6 h2h RoS @ C: S.Basallo or F. Alvarez?

Justin Mason: Basallo

Mike: Are you roserting Carrigg in 12 team leagues? he’s been solid when he plays, but the rockies, for whatever reason, have turned him into a PT player recently

Justin Mason: I dont see a ton in the profile to get overly excited by personally. He has been extremely aggressive in and out of the zone and that will come back to bite him.

bdubs: Buxton likely returns this week so I need to drop one of: Ramos, Ewing, Eldridge. Who to drop considering Ave, SB’s, HR’s, RBI’s?

Justin Mason: Ramos

ajstopes: Does Pasquantino have any hope of bouncing back this year?

Justin Mason: There isn’t much in the numbers to suggest he will, but I did draft him in my second half league because I loved him coming into the season and he was super cheap in the draft. That is mostly wishcasting based on what we saw last year though.

jjconnor23: Super high on Eldridge … can he be a poor man’s Jim Thome ?

Justin Mason: I think he can be. I have been pleasantly surprised by how good the contact skills have been. They probably regress some, but if he hits .250 in the Majors, that is a ton of power to go with it.

Mike: who you got rest of season at 1B? Stowers or Royce Lewis?

Justin Mason: Lewis

Robert: Ottoneu YTD. I AM IN 1st. I am offered Soto, Skenes, Tatis, Tucker and Yamomoto for my Konnor Griffin. Yamomoto and Griffin are nicely salaried and are 2027 keepers. Soto and Tatis would be considered for 2027 Keeper. Flags Fly Forever? Or Do not trade a Konnor Griffin. Thank you.

Justin Mason: Flags fly forever

Salty: Is there a way on the site to compare a player’s exit velocity and barrel percentage over a shorter period (say L15 or L30) vs the full season?  Or is it simply to run a custom report over the shorter time period, get those values, then compare them to full season?  Was thinking of using this in regards to A Riley or maybe more broadly, Machado, who’s been better over the last 30 days.

Justin Mason: I think you have to run a custom report.

Ken K: Hi Justin thanks for the chat. Flaherty (at CHC, KC) or Weathers (PIT, at PHI) in a 5×5 roto. Which two step do you like better this week and which guy rest of season?

Justin Mason: Flaherty. He’s been sneaky good recently.

markbern: Ryan Jeffers or Francisco Alvarez?

Justin Mason: Alvarez

uncwa: Any interest in R. Blanco, coming back from TJ? How about post-trade McCullers?

Justin Mason: No interest in either tbh

Yakety Sox: I’m in a very deep dynasty pts league with (Josh) Jung and Karros helming 3B. Jung seems better from a pure talent perspective, but is often injured. Karros seems to have at least figured something out over the last 6 weeks but I’m not totally ready to buy this new level. If you had to bet on one over the next few seasons, you’re going with ____?

Justin Mason: Karros. Jung just cant stay healthy

Whaleman: Valdez is absolutely on fire.  Walks, K’s but hits bombs.  Hitting streak too.  You still don’t like him?

Justin Mason: His contact skills are just too bad. 71% Z-contact is atrocious. For context, the worst Z-Contact in the league (qualified) is Rafael Devers at 76% and league average is 86% this year. When a player is under 80% I start to question whether they can survive at the Major League level. Are there players that can make it work under 80%? Sure, but not at a 71% level.

Salty: Re: Skubal – I had asked Paul a couple of weeks ago if he thought the Tigers would buy or sell (he said buy at that point).  Considering how well Flaherty and Melton have pitched, Tork hitting better, Gleyber and even Jobe maybe coming back soon, is all this talk about Skubal getting traded just hot air?  And do you think 6 to 1 are good odds for the Tigers to take that division?

Justin Mason: I think that the Tigers have to test the market and see what the offers are unless they within three of the division or wild card before the deadline. If they hit a hot streak here over the next two weeks, I could see them hold. They are only 4.5 out of the WC and 6 out of the division. I think there is a world where they just go for it.

Joel Churnin: Was that Robbie Ray’s last start as a Giant? i Hope so…14 team H2H points redraft league. Can you rank these OF hitters rest of season? Daylen Lile, Lane Thomas, Kody Clemens, Heriberto Hernandez, Jasson Dominguez…there are other guys available but Im trying to shy away from guys who K a lot like Jo Adell and Cam Smith (points league killers) or Platoon guys like Lars Nootbaar because they are less valuable in a points league as accumulators.

Justin Mason: I think he gets one more as a Giants and then is traded by the weekend.

Hernandez, Dominguez, Lile, Thomas, Clemens

ajstopes: Thoughts on Bieber? Is he trending a little better after the last start or is that just fools gold?

Justin Mason: Fools gold

jamield: 12 team mixed h2h; gotta drop one:injured M Garcia, or Canzone  Whoes gonna be tter ROS?

Justin Mason: Garcia

Justin Mason: is the drop

phillyg: I have a IL filled with; Rodon, Harrison, Jobe, E Cabrera, Sevy and Strider in a keeper league. Anyone outside of Harrison warrant Dropping Brandon Young?

Justin Mason: I would drop Severino

Ragbrai: Alcantara and King, safe to stay put and I should trade for in an NL league? Or good chance they are traded and with my luck out of the league?

Justin Mason: I dont think either are dealt at the deadline

Ragbrai: I picked up Ford in WAS, does he get enough bats between cathcing and DH to be relevent? I dropped Del Castillo so I feel the bar is low for improvement.

Justin Mason: I dont think he is relevant outside of really deep OBP leagues.

cjbaseball16: Made this trade in. My AL roto. Thoughts? Traded Gunnar, Gelof, Rutschman, Ward, got back Langrliers, Soderstrom and Jeremy Pena.

Justin Mason: For this year, I think its fine. Dont love it if its a keeper because I think Gunnar will bounce back in the future.

Al: Any chance Sebastian Walcott gets a cup of coffee in the big leagues this year?

Justin Mason: probably not.

cjbaseball16: If Miller is traded who do you think ponies up? Think Pitt and Mil could use him and have the pieces, but of course X says the yanks get everyone.

Justin Mason: Mason Miller? I dont think he’s dealt

Justin Mason: If he is, its because someone was willing to take on the Xander contract along with it. If that scenario, the Yankees make the most sense. Boston could too.

cjbaseball16: More likely to be traded Goodman or Langrliers?

Justin Mason: Goodman, but i dont think either are

David: what do you make of garrett mitchell? plate skill stats are bad but savant page is homicide red. high babip justified by elite hard hit and baserunning metrics? you interested or terrified?

Justin Mason: streaky hitter with loud tools. Injury issues and contact profile will keep him inconsistent. He is the type of guy you stream while hes hot.

Ragbrai: Do you think Tucker turns it aroud for the second half? What can I expect for stats?

Justin Mason: I think he does. His track record is just too good for him to fall apart like this at age 29.

jt1229: 14 tm 6×6 h2h rank the following pitchers with categories being ERA, WHIP, W, K & QS: G. Cole, K. Bradish and N. Eovaldi,

Justin Mason: Eovaldi, Cole, Bradish

BirdsFan: Good day sir!Scrapping around for starters.  12 team NL-only 5×5. Brewers Org helps optimize pitchers so wondering if McCullers becomes starter & worthy of bid   Please rank Gasser, McCullers, Rangle, Pfaadt, A Andrews.

Justin Mason: Pfaadt, Gasser, Andrews, Rangel, McCullers

beyou02215: I am still filling Acuna’s open OF spot in a 12 team 5×5 roto.  I tried Adell but 1-25 his last handful of games. I have Garrett Mitchell plugged in there now.  Other than those two, can you think of any under the radar OF who you LOVE this week who might be (widely) available?  Thanks!

Justin Mason: Tolbert, Loftin, Coninie, Isaac Collins?

Chase Shiflet: 12 tm 6×6 dynasty auction league. 6 teams make the playoffs and I’m retooling for next year since I’m in 9th. I’m trying to trade my 1 dollar Nick Martinez, 1 dollar Foster Griffin, and 2 dollar Max Muncy for 1 dollar Owen Caissie and 1 dollar Zyhir Hope. Does this feel fair?

Justin Mason: I think its worth offering, but I am not doing it if I am the Hope manager

jt1229: 14 tm 6×6 h2h, who is better RoS as EH with categories being: OBP, HR, R, TB, RBI & SB -> M. Busch or R. Lewis

Justin Mason: Busch

Justin Mason: Send more questions!

co_southpaw: Currently in 1st in our OBP/QS keeper league. Thinking about dangling Roman Anthony who is $23 next year for Chris Sale to bolster my chances for a repeat title. Am I underselling Roman’s future value?

Justin Mason: I am ok with that. I like Anthony, but flag fly forever, and its not like he will be extremely cheap next year or anything

phillyg: Does Tong get any run in the Bigs after the trade deadline or is he better to cut bait on and try to move for anything of value?

Justin Mason: I think he will once the Mets sell. No reason for them not to get some more big league experience.

Justin Mason: Need more questions…

vinzk: Pls rank following in 12-team standard 5x 5: Montero, McDonald, Young, Kremer, Thornton. And would you drop A Vaughn before any of these?

Justin Mason: Young, McDonald, Montero, Thornton, Kremer. I would probably drop Vaughn only for Young.

Ragbrai: How easy or hard is it to make up points in ERA and WHIP?

Justin Mason: It’s much easier than people think to make up ERA and WHIP. I recommend making a spreadsheet of your team with the stats and then adding a good month’s worth of pitching stats to see how much it moves because it is very dependent on you league depth.

Peter Castro: What are your thoughts on Cole Young for next season? Where is he worthy of being kept in a 30 round 15 teamer?

Justin Mason: I see him as a pretty good accumulator long term. I dont expect there to be a ton of power, but he could hit 20 with a good average and chip in speed

jamield: thx Justin; Is Thortnon NYM worth a flyer?  would you start him this week v MIL?

Justin Mason: I think he is worth a flyer but I dont love the matchup this week

Broken Bat: rank Hunter brown – Flaherty – Cavelli ROS.

Justin Mason: Brown, Cavalli, Flaherty

Johnny5Alive: Conundrum. Out of it in NL only dynasty and I have McLean on an expiring contract. I’m not getting what I consider good offers. Do you just take whatever you might keep next year on a situation like this or ride it out even though you can’t keep him for like sanctity of the league or whatever

Justin Mason: Take the best offer.

andyh1818: Cole Young is a top __ 2B rest of season?

Justin Mason: 15

Hazmat Corntail: I dropped Bohm for Colt Keith after the glowing review in a recent pod; are there any mitigating concerns over his usage? He still can’t hit LHP

Justin Mason: I still love the guy. He is a strong side bat so you have to be able to utilize him that way

Mike B: Thoughts on how to handle Miz? 12 team, 6×6 cat league OPS and I am in first place by a wide margin so would you just hold or try to move for something? What would you try to move for if you could?

Justin Mason: unless you are getting a stud hitter back, I wouldnt move Miz

yochuckie: Pagan or Wells

Justin Mason: Pagan

David: have you laced up your shoes for a nasim nunez victory lap yet? white hot since since june.

Justin Mason: oh yeah, Im already mid-lap

David: do you have your eyes on any 2026 draftees that you think could make an impact in 2027? curiel maybe?

Justin Mason: I never expect anyone to come up and have an impact right away. Its just too hard of a jump.

Hazmat Corntail: Follow up to my Keith question: who would you rather in dynasty, Keith or Karros (who just got dropped in my league)?

Justin Mason: Keith

yochuckie: Sproat or Warren?

Justin Mason: Warren

bs3330a: Trying to decide if trading a $22 Murakami makes sense in an AL 5×5 $260 keep 10. Where would you ballpark his value for next year?

Justin Mason: I think his value will be way too high next year. His contact skills are really bad and there will be massive regression.

Ragbrai: What does Milwaukee to at 3B? Is Ortiz/Hamilton enough for this year? Do they have bigger needs like pitching? DO you think they do something in the off season or are they content with the duo option?

Justin Mason: I think they have to make a trade for someone there at the deadline. I cant imagine they spend a ton of money there so someone like Matt Chapman is out, but I assume they will bring someone in.

Hazmat Corntail: unless I’m mistaken, Ginkel is a FA after this year, could you see him being a trade candidate that provides sneaky value in leagues with Saves and Holds?

Justin Mason: I could definitely see it if the Diamondbacks decide to sell, but I think they will try and go for a playoff spot this year.

slicedfriedgold: In a 12 team OC, I’m in first, and I’m #1 in saves, #4 in wins, and middling in ratios and strikeouts. Would you start Max Meyer @SD this week over one of seven game Bryan Baker/Louis Varland? (I already benched David Bednar for a two start pitcher)

Justin Mason: Start Meyer

andyh1818: I know this isn’t a prospect chat, but Kade Anderson has a 25% K-BB projection from oopsy .  Which projection do you like best for him when he does get the call?

Justin Mason: I think he competes for a rotation spot out of camp next year

yochuckie: Dynasty Rank, Cavalli, Harrison, Henderson, Detmers and Soriano

Justin Mason: Harrison, Henderson, Detmers, Cavallo, Soriano

Chase Shiflet: RE: my dynasty auction league trade for caissie and hope. Do you think adding Dzierwa is fair to make the deal work?

Justin Mason: worth a shot

OddBall Herrera: Jackson Merrill – is he going to coast along as a 4th outfielder type or would you be buying low in a dynasty

Justin Mason: I would be willing to buy low depending on what that cost actually is.

baallgame: who do think the most likely call ips ROS?

Justin Mason: Max Clark, Joshua Baez, Culpepper, Jenkins

Hazmat Corntail: Byron Buxton was just activated

Justin Mason: Back in the lineup!

Jeffrey Scarborough: Is Crochet a drop in redraft 12 team league?

Justin Mason: yes

sactown 2: Need to drop one for streaming spot-E. Suárez, JJ, DeLauter or Benge? Thanks

Justin Mason: DeLauter

phillyg: My league has our trade deadline this sunday and I’m trying to forecast who will be kept on the roster for next year, do you think it’s better to lean into locking up guys and target just a couple positions in the draft next year or leave yourself more flexibility/roster spots to see what’s going on in the spring

Justin Mason: I always default to talent. Lock up the best guys.

Ragbrai: How would you classify Winn as a fantasy player? Seems the hype was bigger than the production we are seeing. Nothing great, but somewhat serviceable.

Justin Mason: boring accumulator.

Ragbrai: Does Weaver get traded and if so is he more likely to become a closer some where or just a very good setup man?

Justin Mason: he will likely be moved, but still a set up guy

Ragbrai: Roberts should be back in NY either today or shortly. What does his ROS look like?

Justin Mason: injury prone?

Hazmat Corntail: How are you looking at Brooks Lee these days? Buying the extra power, or was that a temporary thing and he still is what he is?

Justin Mason: flash in the pan. more of a deep league accumulator that is eligible at different spots.

Ragbrai: In our NL league we switched this yer from S to S+H, with H = to 1/2 of a save. Do you think they should both be worth the same or is our current way the right way? Do you even like Hs?

Justin Mason: I don’t really like holds as a stat, but if youre going to use them, I prefer Saves + 1/2 Holds

Ragbrai: Injury prone? Points Awarded!! Are we allowe to do that?

Justin Mason: Sure! Point awarded!

yochuckie: Can Curtis Mead keep this up? His random benching(s) has me wary

Justin Mason: I think his defense will always be an issue that send him to the bench at times, but I do believe in the offensive skill set.

DHYS Title Town: Any potential future closer stash candidates stand out to you? How early are you willing to secure the rights?

Justin Mason: I think now is the time to start gambling on it. Daniel Lynch in KC, Morejon in SD (just in case Miller is moved which I dont think will happen), Brennan Bernardino in Colorado. Not a ton of great options this season to be honest.

sactown 2: Is Jump worth a p/u for road starts?

Justin Mason: I think so

jt1229: 14 tm 6×6 h2h, RoS 3B: Riley or Jung ?

Justin Mason: Riley

Hazmat Corntail: In general, how many poor starts are you willing to give a SP before you bail?

Justin Mason: depends on the underlying skills. 3-4 usually.

Justin Mason: Thats my time!

Justin Mason: please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well! You can also join the Sleeper and the Bust discord! https://discord.gg/ar7XUV9T