Sometimes you try things and they don’t work out. The Brewers’ offseason signing of Neftali Feliz to be their closer always seemed a little superfluous, but it had a certain logic. The $5.35 million they paid for his services was less than what Joaquin Benoit and Koji Uehara got, and he was following up a comeback season with the Pirates. You could see the possibility of Feliz finding some consistency as the Brewers’ closer, and then they could always flip him at the trade deadline.

Feliz was 8-for-9 in save chances, but he was not consistent and certainly did not build up any trade value. When he coughed up a three-run homer to Mookie Betts in the top of the ninth on Thursday, Feliz was en route to his fourth loss. That was enough for Craig Counsell to make a change. He went on MLB Network Radio and said he was going to give Feliz “a break back there and get him right.” He also said Corey Knebel “has been outstanding,” but that doesn’t mean you should run out and pick Knebel up. Counsell told MLB.com he wants to use Knebel in a variety of situations, so essentially, the Brewers are going to a committee to close out games. Read the rest of this entry »

Neftali Feliz and LaTroy Hawkins both picked up their first saves of the season last night. Per ESPN’s live draft results, Feliz was drafted as the 25th reliever off the board on average and just inside the top 200 overall. Hawkins was drafted 38th among relievers and went at pick 226 overall. These are a couple of the names you wound up with if you chose not to pay for saves.

Maybe I’m wrong about this, but I assume the plan if you own guys like Feliz and Hawkins is to ride them out as long as they hold on to the closer’s job and squeeze as many saves out of them as you can. I ascribe to the “don’t pay for saves” philosophy and scrounge around late in drafts and on the waiver wire to acquire my saves. Typically when I get a guy who has the ninth inning job, I ride it out until he loses the job. But it occurs to me, as it may have occurred to you, that maybe it’s better to cash in that asset after a string of un-blown saves. Read the rest of this entry »

Any day now, Zach Sanders (@zvsanders) will come out with his end-of-season FAVRz/Fantasy Rankings. Look out for them.

For this post, I will provide three sets of rankings using that same approach (summed up z-scores) for our end-of-season “Bullpen Report: Expected Fantasy Rankings”. The Bullpen Report team should follow up with role reports for each division in the coming weeks as well.

The first set of rankings you will find almost anywhere: on the fantasy sites that you use, via player-raters, etc. It’s the standard 5×5 fantasy value (Wins, ERA, WHIP, SO and Saves). The second grid will be for 6×6 leagues (addition of Holds). The last grid will be for 5×5 and 6×6 leagues, but instead of standard ERA and WHIP, we’ll look at rankings if you were to use expected ERA (via SIERA) and adjusted (adj)WHIP through BABIP differential: I will explain below.

1) 5×5 Rankings (Wins, ERA, WHIP, SO and Saves) – actual 5×5 value in column 4; expected 5×5 value in column 5:

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• The dreaded “closer in a non-save situation” …and Casey Janssen strikes out 2! The Blue Jays are only 4.5 games back from the Wild Card and Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez was up to start the inning so manager John Gibbons appropriately went all out. Janssen struck them both out, even though he only induced one whiff in seven swings total for the inning. Still, 12 of of his 15 pitches were thrown for strikes/fouls.
• “Put it in the (anxiety-inducing) Books” says (thinks) Howie Rose. With Jenrry Mejia unavailable due to his back and not his hernia supposedly, Jeurys Familia relieved Vic Black in the 8th after he loaded the bases. While he walked Sam Fuld forcing in run, he struck out Andy Parrino and got Josh Donaldson to ground out to shortstop. He got away with two things in the innings: the third strike to Parrino was a bit outside and the breaking ball on a full-count to Donaldson was a bit of a hanger although IMO it needed to be a breaking ball. At least it was thrown for a strike. A Stephen Vogt double after a Derek Norris strikeout in the 9th was the only other damage to give Familia the 5-out save. In any case, I think if he can continue to locate the fastball running outside on a lefty, he could be effective to all handedness. I’m a fan of the 3-pitch Fastball-Slider-Sinker repertoire that induces enough swinging strikes (12.4%) and ground balls (56%). We’re seeing it already in the outcomes and on the pitch level: According to Baseball Pro’s Pitchf/x Leaderboard, Familia has the 12th fasted RP velocity on the Fastball; 7th best whiff rate (51.43%) and 9th best GB/FB rate (3.2) on the slider; and 6th best whiff rate on the sinker (22.37%) which balances the fact that it only induces a 3.33 GB/FB ratio on it. If he can control the BB-rate, he should be successful and consume closing duties for at least the remainder of this year based on Mejia’s ailments. P.S. I’m a Mets fan so I apologies for the longevity associated with this run-on.
• Mark Melancon picks up the win (+1K) with a perfect inning in the top of the 9th vs. the Braves due to a Justin Upton error on a routine fly ball that allowed Jordy Mercer to score on a sac fly in the bottom of the 9th.
• Neftali Feliz hasn’t let up a run since August 3rd (only 6 appearances since). On this day, he had a 100% HR/FB ratio as Marcell Ozuna and Jarrod Saltalamachhia both went deep.
• A Bullpen Report where I don’t get to talk about Ken Giles or Brad Boxberger is a report I don’t enjoy writing nearly as much. Luckily, Ken Giles struck out Chris Denorfia, Logan Morrison and Dustin Ackley – all swinging in the 8th. To date, for relievers (200 pitches minimum), Giles has the 6th fastest FB velocity (97.72 MPH) with a top 15 whiff rate (26.7%). He also has a top 15 whiff rate on the slider (50.6%).
• The 8-9 punch of Darren O’Day and Zach Britton continues to ensure wins for the AL East leading O’s. O’Day strikes out both batters he faces and Britton strikes out 1 in a perfect 9th. O’Day threw 8/10 pitches for strikes: 4 whiffs, 3 looking, and only 1 time did the bat make (foul) contact with an O’Day offering. But Zach Britton! Whose ballsiest forecast had him at a 2.00 ERA and 30 saves?! a 77+% (77!!!) ground ball rate (11% flies and 12% liners) backs up the elite .222 BABIP right now. Nothing else on him screams elite, but the balls in play breakdown verifies the 2.04 ERA through a sub-2.00 SIERA.

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Before I begin, please allow me to congratulate both Craig Kimbrel and Jeremy Hellickson for winning their respective league’s 2011 Rookie of the Year awards.  It was the first time since 1981 when Dave Righetti (NYY- AL) and Fernando Valenzuela (LAD- NL) won that each league’s award went to a pitcher in the same season.  Both seemed deserving of such esteemed honors, although one brings on a greater debate than the other.  Kimbrel, with a record 46 saves by a rookie, finished with a 2.10 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an eye-popping 127 strikeouts in 77 innings of work.  Hellickson, starter of 29 games and winner of 13, finished the season with a 2.95 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and notched 117 Ks in a rookie-leading 189 innings.  I could talk about peripherals and who was more deserving and what not, but that’s neither here nor there right now.  What is important is how winning this award affects the value of each player in 2012 fantasy baseball drafts.   All too often, players are drafted based on name and hype and winning the Rookie of the Year award certainly helps build both.  So before you go breaking the bank to acquire this year’s crop, allow me to point out that you should probably keep your expectations low.

Read the rest of this entry »

Today marks the first day of a new feature we will be trying out here at RotoGraphs. In an attempt to keep you, the fantastical reader, informed, we will be looking at some of the stories around baseball that have an effect on your fantasy team. Because this piece is ultimately being read by you, your opinion is requested. Please chime in using the comments and let us know what you would like to see from this piece.

After a wild trade deadline, the Rangers now have Neftali Feliz, Mike Adams, and Koji Uehara in the back of their bullpen. This trade has a few fantasy storylines, so let’s make it more digestible:

Read the rest of this entry »

To close out our series of looks at the values of players in ottoneu Pick Six, we look today at pitchers.  As before, the numbers below are based on weighted averages of THT’s Oliver and BPro’s PECOTA (more weight to Oliver b/c it includes this season’s data).  The numbers are FP (FanGraphs Points per IP), though keep in mind that for starters this number is divided by four to keep starters from being the only thing that matters in pick six.

Starting Pitchers

Elite Five (they cost a fortune, but they’re worth it)

Tim Lincecum, 5.33 FP/IP, $48
Josh Johnson, 5.21 FP/IP, $38
Felix Hernandez, 5.04 FP/IP, $49
Cliff Lee, 5.04 FP/IP, $43
Roy Halladay, 5.01 FP/IP, $52

Johnson’s injury risk has kept his value down in traditional ottoneu, but when he’s healthy (currently has shoulder ouchie), he’s the best value of this group.  But you can’t go wrong here: more than any other pitchers in baseball, these guys should give you lots of productive innings per start.

Read the rest of this entry »

As much joy as the game of fantasy baseball brings to most of us, it can also bring an enormous amount of frustration and anxiety.  They say you shouldn’t keep that sort of stuff bottled up inside you, unless, of course, you enjoy the taste of bile and all the other stomach acids that a bleeding ulcer provides.  You need to get it out.  But what are you going to do, bitch to your girlfriend?  Try to gain sympathy from your fellow owners?  Doubtful.   Her level of care is reciprocal to your level of interest in her best friend’s latest relationship disaster and deep down, your fellow owners are wishing this kind of stuff on you. Read the rest of this entry »

After a few weeks of steady movement, the closer roles in the American League are holding steady.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: Aardsma is still ‘The Man’ in terms of overall save total with eight. He blew his first save of the year this past week, but the right-hander was successful in two other attempts. All his runs allowed on the season have come in the one game against the White Sox. Everyone has an off-day now and then; Aardsma is still a top AL – and mixed league – closer option.

Kevin Gregg | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: Gregg finally allowed his first walk of the season and it came at a really bad time (it led to a Toronto loss). He was, though, a perfect 2-for-2 in save opportunities over a four-game stretch this past week. He struck out seven batters in 4.2 innings of work. The cutter continues to do wonders for him.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: No signs of cracks in the foundation just yet. Rauch has seven saves in nine appearances on the year. This past week, he made two appearances and went 1-for-2 in saves. That blown save was his first of the season and he ended up recording the win.

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: Soria appeared in three games this week but he had just one save opportunity, which he converted. In 3.2 innings, he struck out six batters. Soria is a strong closer option, but Kansas City needs to get the lead to him.

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: It was a quiet week for Rivera. He appeared in just one game and it wasn’t even a save opportunity. The Yankees club is going to keep on winning so the save opportunities will come. Rivera has already shown this season that he’s still not slowing down.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: On the flip side of Rivera we have Papelbon. The Red Sox closer was a busy man this week with four saves in as many appearances. The right-hander had a bit of a hiccup against the Orioles (3 H, 1 R), but he still got the job done. Overall, the strikeout rate remains low and the walk rate is high; the .195 BABIP-against is really helping him right now, so be wary of his recent success.

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: The save opportunity can be an elusive beast and Bailey has yet to tame it this season. Despite not allowing a run in eight appearances so far this season, the sophomore closer has just two saves in as many opportunities. He came out throwing strikes this past week; of his 25 pitches thrown, 19 were strikes (76%).

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: The second-year closer has seen a huge drop in his strikeout rate so far this season (7.88 compared to 12.13 K/9 in ’09) but he’s still a perfect 5-for-5 in saves. He was a perfect 1-for-1 this week in two appearances. With the Rays club playing well, Soriano should be provided plenty of opportunities.

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: First the good news: Valverde has seven saves and a 0.82 ERA. Now the bad news: His BABIP-allowed is .133, his FIP is 4.74, and his strikeout rate is 4.09 K/9. If you want to take a positive spin to the numbers, then you’d point out that Valverde is succeeding despite modest numbers. The pessimist will simply say that’s his been lucky and that his luck is bound to change. This past week, Valverde appeared in four games and saved two in as many attempts. Although his strikeout rate is down, the Tigers closer has had a lot of success with his splitter and his ground-ball rate is currently 73.3%, which bodes well for his success (although it doesn’t help his fantasy owners in the K-department).

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: Jenks’ strikeout rate of 14.00 K/9 is no doubt welcomed by his owners. The 6.00 BB/9 rate, though, is not so nice. Overall, Jenks has four saves on the year and has yet to blow a save. This past week, he was 1-for-1 in opportunities and appeared in three games. He was roughed up in his non-save appearances with four runs allowed in 2.0 innings.

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: Fuentes was solid this past week. He saved two games in as many tries and did not allow a run in three appearances. He even struck out four batters in three innings.

Jim Johnson | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: The 6.23 ERA jumps out at you, but his xFIP is 3.21. Johnson has also done a nice job of limiting the walks (2.08 BB/9) and the homers (none). He appeared in three games this past week and did not have a save opportunity. Johnson was also roughed up by Boston for two runs in 2.0 innings on April 25. The hard-throwing Alfredo Simon was recently recalled and recorded a save in his first game. He could cut into Johnson’s save opportunities.

Neftali Feliz | Texas Rangers
The Comments: Feliz was human this past week and his ERA jumped to 5.91, although his xFIP is much better at 3.62. The youngster was used heavily and appeared in four games despite having just two save opportunities (He went 1-for-2). During that span of games, Feliz allowed 10 hits and six runs in 4.0 innings.

Chris Perez | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: Well, the xFIP is ugly at 6.95 and the walk rate is atrocious at 8.10. His K/BB rate is 0.50. It’s kind of a miracle that Perez is 4-for-5 in save opportunities. The Indians might have to look at another option soon unless Perez can throw more strikes.

Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers

Though the change may be temporary, Feliz has taken over closing duties from Frank Francisco.

One of two core players picked up in the July 2007 Mark Teixeira swap (Elvis Andrus being the other), Feliz beings mid-to-upper-nineties smoke, a hard high-70’s curve and an occasional mid-80’s changeup out of the ‘pen. The 22 year-old (in May) struck out 10.6 batters per nine innings in the minors. He has 11.8 K/9 in 34.1 big league frames, with 2.62 BB/9 and a 3.11 expected FIP. Feliz is adept at getting hitters to chase out of the zone, with a 30.1 outside swing percentage (25 percent MLB average).

Feliz’s long term role has yet to be determined, but there’s little doubt that he can be an effective, high-leverage reliever for the Rangers in 2010.

Chris Snyder, Arizona Diamondbacks

With Miguel Montero (torn meniscus in right knee) hitting the DL and likely headed for surgery that could sideline him for a significant amount of time, Snyder becomes the everyday backstop for the D-Backs.

Snyder is no stranger to health issues, as the 29 year-old was limited to 202 plate appearances in 2009 with a back injury that required surgery. His line (.200/.333/.352) and wOBA (.304) look ghastly, but he drew a walk nearly 16 percent of the time and still managed a .152 ISO. A .237 BABIP dragged down his numbers considerably.

Yeah, Snyder can’t beat a Molina in a foot race (career 1.0 Speed Score) and he pops the ball up a lot (career 14.7 infield fly rate), two traits that deflate BABIP (his career mark is .274). But if he’s healthy and gets a few more bounces to go his way, Snyder could be a nifty NL-only option: ZiPS projects a .239/.341/.438 line the rest of the way.

Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit Tigers

Bonderman has broken many hearts over the years. He has one of the largest splits between ERA (4.77 career) and xFIP (4.00) among starters, the result of a career .316 BABIP and a lower-than-usual strand rate (67.7 percent). Bonderman scarcely pitched at all over the 2008 and 2009 seasons following a procedure to correct Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. It’s enough to make you wanna throw a chair.

While one start doesn’t tell us much, Bonderman did look good while taking on the Indians on April 10th. In five frames, he struck out five and walked two, surrendering one hit and one run. Bonderman pounded the zone with his fastball and slider, throwing 59 of his 91 pitches for strikes (64.8 percent). Stamina and durability are big issues, but Bonderman is owned in just four percent of Yahoo leagues. He’s worth a look.

Chris Young, San Diego Padres

It’s been a rough couple of years for Young. He took an Albert Pujols liner off the face in 2008, while also struggling with a right forearm injury. In 2009, Young underwent right shoulder surgery that limited him to just 76 innings. As an extreme fly ball pitcher in a park where long drives die at the warning track, he’s in the best possible environment. But Young’s velocity has dipped from the high-80’s to the mid-80’s, and his walk rate has increased considerably. His percentage of pitches within the strike zone has plummeted, as has his swinging strike rate.

Now, Young heads back to the DL with shoulder tightness. Precautionary or no, Young’s stuff has declined over the past few years to the extent that he would be a liability in less hospitable ball parks. He shouldn’t be on your radar unless/until he can show more than mid-80’s “heat” high in the zone.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Texas Rangers

It’s difficult to remember now, but Salty was once the key piece in the aforementioned Teixeira bounty. But in 874 career major league plate appearances, the switch-hitter has authored a .251/.313/.388 line, with a .306 wOBA. Saltalamacchia has handled fastballs at an average rate, but off-speed stuff has flummoxed him: -2.4 runs per 100 pitches against sliders, -0.97 runs/100 versus curves and -1.37 against changeups. Not surprisingly, Salty has seen a rather low proportion of fastballs (55.4 percent).

Saltalamacchia underwent surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome late last season, and he was recently placed on the DL with upper back stiffness. He won’t turn 25 until May, but the former top prospect is a flawed player at the moment. In Salty’s stead, Taylor Teagarden will try to prove that he can avoid being eaten alive by big league pitching. ZiPS (.215/.291/.369) thinks he’ll remain a tasty dish for opposing hurlers.

Ben Sheets, Oakland Athletics

Again, we’re dealing with small sample sizes here. But Sheets hasn’t shown crisp stuff with the A’s. The long-time Brewer, who missed the entire 2009 season with a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow, has a 4/7 K/BB ratio in 11 frames. Sheets has averaged 91.2 MPH with his fastball, compared to 92-93 MPH in past years. His swinging strike rate is 4.7 percent (8-9 percent MLB average), and his contact rate is well above average (88.1 percent, 80-81 percent MLB average).

It’s entirely possible that Sheets’ early struggles are forgotten in the coming months, with his fastball hitting its normal velocity and his performance improving greatly. The problem is, we just don’t know if that will occur at this point. If you own Sheets, don’t dump him for pennies on the dollar. But keep an eye on his fastball and curve in the coming weeks to see if they start to round into form.