Be Careful Overvaluing ROY Winners

Before I begin, please allow me to congratulate both Craig Kimbrel and Jeremy Hellickson for winning their respective league’s 2011 Rookie of the Year awards.  It was the first time since 1981 when Dave Righetti (NYY- AL) and Fernando Valenzuela (LAD- NL) won that each league’s award went to a pitcher in the same season.  Both seemed deserving of such esteemed honors, although one brings on a greater debate than the other.  Kimbrel, with a record 46 saves by a rookie, finished with a 2.10 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an eye-popping 127 strikeouts in 77 innings of work.  Hellickson, starter of 29 games and winner of 13, finished the season with a 2.95 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and notched 117 Ks in a rookie-leading 189 innings.  I could talk about peripherals and who was more deserving and what not, but that’s neither here nor there right now.  What is important is how winning this award affects the value of each player in 2012 fantasy baseball drafts.   All too often, players are drafted based on name and hype and winning the Rookie of the Year award certainly helps build both.  So before you go breaking the bank to acquire this year’s crop, allow me to point out that you should probably keep your expectations low.

Here’s a look at Rookie of the Year winners from 2000 – 2010 with their award winning season’s stats followed by the totals from their sophomore campaign.

Rookie Season
Batters	Year	AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
Rafael Furcal	2000	.295	87	4	37	40
Ichiro Suzuki	2001	.348	127	8	69	56
Albert Pujols	2001	.329	112	37	130	1
Eric Hinske	2002	.279	99	24	84	13
Angel Berroa	2003	.288	92	17	73	21
Bobby Crosby	2004	.239	70	22	64	7
Jason Bay	2004	.282	61	26	82	4
Ryan Howard	2005	.289	52	22	63	0
Hanley Ramirez	2006	.292	119	17	59	51
Ryan Braun	2007	.324	91	34	97	15
Dustin Pedroia	2007	.317	86	8	50	7
Evan Longoria	2008	.272	67	27	85	7
Geovany Soto	2008	.285	66	23	86	0
Chris Coghlan	2009	.321	84	9	47	8
Buster Posey	2010	.305	58	18	67	0
Pitchers		W	S	K	ERA	WHIP
Kazuhiro Sasaki	2000	2	37	78	3.16	1.16
Jason Jennings	2002	16	0	127	4.52	1.46
Dontrelle Willis	2003	14	0	142	3.31	1.29
Huston Street	2005	5	23	72	1.73	1.01
Justin Verlander	2006	17	0	124	3.63	1.33
Andrew Bailey	2009	6	26	91	1.84	0.88
Neftali Feliz	2010	4	40	71	2.73	0.88
Follow-Up Season
Batters	Year	AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB
Rafael Furcal**	2001	.275	39	4	30	22
Ichiro Suzuki	2002	.322	111	8	51	31
Albert Pujols	2002	.314	118	34	127	2
Eric Hinske**	2003	.243	74	12	63	12
Angel Berroa	2004	.262	72	8	43	14
Bobby Crosby**	2005	.276	66	9	38	0
Jason Bay	2005	.305	110	32	101	21
Ryan Howard	2006	.313	104	58	149	0
Hanley Ramirez	2007	.332	125	29	81	51
Ryan Braun	2008	.285	92	37	106	14
Dustin Pedroia	2008	.326	118	17	83	20
Evan Longoria	2009	.281	100	33	113	9
Geovany Soto**	2009	.218	27	11	47	1
Chris Coghlan**	2010	.268	60	5	28	10
Buster Posey**	2011	.284	17	4	21	3
Pitchers		W	S	K	ERA	WHIP
Kazuhiro Sasaki	2001	0	45	62	3.24	0.86
Jason Jennings	2003	12	0	119	5.12	1.66
Dontrelle Willis	2004	10	0	139	4.02	1.38
Huston Street	2006	4	37	67	3.33	1.10
Justin Verlander	2007	18	0	183	3.67	1.23
Andrew Bailey**	2010	1	25	42	1.47	0.96
Neftali Feliz	2011	2	32	54	2.74	1.16

**injured

If for some reason color coding needs to be explained, then allow me to tell you that red indicates a regression, green is an increase in overall production and blue is, statistically, a lateral move. 

While there are definitely some seriously talented players listed here, you can’t deny the fact that regression in the second year is much more common than improvement.  Yes, even the great Pujols regressed during his sophomore season, although anyone would be lucky to own his regressed stats, right?  But for whatever reason it may be — Coghlan’s unsustainable .365 BABIP, Jennings’ high HR/FB in Coors Field, Crosby’s high K% and low AVG — several of the winners had flaws in their game that indicated a downturn was coming.  Perhaps the adrenaline from playing their first full year helped mask some of the negatives, but if you sifted through the data enough, there were plenty to be found.

Now obviously there are no tangible predictors for injury.  Sometimes, as in the case with Posey, you never see them coming and it’s always too late when you do.  However, when you’re talking about hamstrings or broken fingers from aggressive slides, knee tweaks, whatever, sometimes it’s the hard-nosed, gritty play that does a guy in.  The pressure the following year that stems from winning an award like this is usually pretty high for a young player.  You want to come into camp strong the following year.  You’ve already set the bar high and now you’re putting pressure on yourself to do even better.  You push yourself more, you might play through a hammy tweak you shouldn’t play through, you play a harder edged game and  all of that opens yourself up to getting hurt more easily.  Such was the case of several listed above.

Yes, that run of players from ’05 through ’09 was pretty special.  Players like Longoria, Ramirez and Howard were on a level far beyond most of their peers even coming into their first season.  Greatness was already expected and the award just confirmed what we already knew.  But so many of the others didn’t so much come from nowhere, but the expectations of them were not nearly as high as those who were rated at the top by Baseball America and other scouting publications.  When you watch a player come up through the system, you can tell who’s got it and who doesn’t.  Longoria had it.  Hinske did not.

So when you’re deciding where to draft Kimbrel and Hellickson this year, you have to ask yourself whether or not they “have it” as well.  Kimbrel’s basic and peripheral stats look incredibly consistent from his time in the minors, even with a higher than usual BABIP.  However, one can’t help but think about Feliz’ declining K% in his sophomore year and wonder if Kimbrel might go the same route.  And Hellickson, well, you’ve heard the debates and have looked at his stats.  If he truly had the edge because of innings pitched, then the low K% and nasty FIP can’t be ignored for next season.  I’m not saying to necessarily avoid these guys next year.  Just don’t overpay because “award winning” comes attached to their name.