Selling High on Bad Closers
Neftali Feliz and LaTroy Hawkins both picked up their first saves of the season last night. Per ESPN’s live draft results, Feliz was drafted as the 25th reliever off the board on average and just inside the top 200 overall. Hawkins was drafted 38th among relievers and went at pick 226 overall. These are a couple of the names you wound up with if you chose not to pay for saves.
Maybe I’m wrong about this, but I assume the plan if you own guys like Feliz and Hawkins is to ride them out as long as they hold on to the closer’s job and squeeze as many saves out of them as you can. I ascribe to the “don’t pay for saves” philosophy and scrounge around late in drafts and on the waiver wire to acquire my saves. Typically when I get a guy who has the ninth inning job, I ride it out until he loses the job. But it occurs to me, as it may have occurred to you, that maybe it’s better to cash in that asset after a string of un-blown saves.
The problem with closers like Feliz and Hawkins isn’t just that they’re at high risk of losing their job and becoming useless to fantasy owners. It’s also that they really hurt you in the other roto categories. Let’s put the auction calculator to use one more time and look at the 30 closers projected to provide the most fantasy value via the save and compare it to their roto contributions as a whole (this obviously hasn’t been updated since the Kimbrel trade).
| Player Name | mW | mSV | mERA | mWHIP | mSO | Dollars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Holland | ($4.00) | $6.50 | $3.20 | $2.20 | ($3.30) | $13.20 |
| Mark Melancon | ($4.10) | $6.50 | $2.70 | $1.30 | ($4.50) | $10.50 |
| Zach Britton | ($4.20) | $6.50 | $0.80 | ($1.50) | ($4.80) | $5.40 |
| Aroldis Chapman | ($3.60) | $6.40 | $6.80 | $6.00 | ($1.00) | $23.20 |
| David Robertson | ($4.20) | $6.40 | $1.60 | $1.10 | ($3.30) | $10.20 |
| Joaquin Benoit | ($4.30) | $6.30 | $2.00 | $1.40 | ($3.60) | $10.40 |
| Trevor Rosenthal | ($4.10) | $6.30 | $2.10 | $0.80 | ($3.40) | $10.20 |
| Craig Kimbrel | ($4.00) | $6.20 | $4.80 | $3.90 | ($2.30) | $17.30 |
| Fernando Rodney | ($4.20) | $6.20 | $0.80 | ($0.40) | ($4.20) | $6.70 |
| Koji Uehara | ($3.80) | $6.10 | $3.20 | $3.50 | ($3.80) | $13.70 |
| Glen Perkins | ($4.20) | $6.10 | $1.50 | $1.00 | ($4.10) | $8.90 |
| Steve Cishek | ($4.30) | $6.10 | $1.50 | $0.30 | ($4.00) | $8.40 |
| Huston Street | ($4.40) | $6.10 | ($1.10) | ($0.90) | ($4.90) | $3.40 |
| Neftali Feliz | ($4.40) | $6.10 | ($1.80) | ($2.80) | ($4.80) | $1.00 |
| Cody Allen | ($4.20) | $6.00 | $1.20 | $0.50 | ($3.50) | $8.70 |
| Drew Storen | ($4.30) | $5.90 | $0.10 | ($0.40) | ($4.70) | $5.20 |
| Addison Reed | ($4.40) | $5.80 | $0.50 | $0.80 | ($4.20) | $7.20 |
| Hector Rondon | ($4.30) | $5.60 | $0.50 | ($0.30) | ($4.20) | $5.80 |
| Jonathan Papelbon | ($4.60) | $5.60 | ($0.30) | $0.00 | ($4.60) | $4.70 |
| Santiago Casilla | ($4.50) | $5.50 | ($0.10) | ($1.90) | ($4.90) | $2.70 |
| Joe Nathan | ($4.40) | $4.70 | ($1.30) | ($1.90) | ($4.70) | $1.00 |
| LaTroy Hawkins | ($4.40) | $4.70 | ($2.30) | ($3.00) | ($5.50) | ($1.90) |
| Brett Cecil | ($4.10) | $4.30 | $1.40 | $0.20 | ($3.70) | $6.70 |
| Jake McGee | ($4.00) | $4.00 | $3.70 | $2.90 | ($3.30) | $11.80 |
| Dellin Betances | ($4.10) | $3.80 | $2.30 | $1.30 | ($3.00) | $8.90 |
| Kenley Jansen | ($4.40) | $3.60 | $3.60 | $3.60 | ($3.70) | $11.30 |
| Francisco Rodriguez | ($4.40) | $3.50 | ($0.50) | ($0.80) | ($4.20) | $2.20 |
| Jenrry Mejia | ($4.50) | $3.40 | $0.20 | ($0.80) | ($4.30) | $2.60 |
| Rafael Soriano | ($4.40) | $3.10 | ($1.20) | ($1.50) | ($4.80) | ($0.30) |
| Luke Gregerson | ($4.40) | $3.00 | ($0.70) | ($0.80) | ($4.80) | $0.90 |
I’ve highlighted the names of the closers whose total value may not be worth the saves you’re getting. Hawkins is the most extreme example as his total roto contributions are projected to be negative despite a healthy contribution in the saves category.
In my experience, people looking to acquire saves will pay a a decent price to trade for a closer. If you own Hawkins and he strings together a couple of weeks without an implosion, see if you can acquire a useful piece elsewhere on your roster in exchange for Hawkins. You’ll be adding a player whose total contributions will be positive, and you’ll be getting rid of Hawkins while he still has value as perceived by others instead of unceremoniously dropping him to the waiver wire when he inevitably loses the closing gig.
In a few weeks time, I’d be willing to sell quite a few closers if they avoid disaster. Guys I’d deal include Hawkins, Feliz, Joe Nathan, Santiago Casilla, Francisco Rodriguez, Jenrry Mejia, Luke Gregerson, Jonathan Papelbon, Hector Rondon and Huston Street. For a good enough return, I’d also strongly consider dealing Drew Storen, Addison Reed and Zach Britton.
Again, maybe this is an obvious strategy, but it’s not something I’ve utilized before. It seems somewhat counterintuitive to emphasize acquiring saves on the cheap and then shipping them out the door once you acquire them. But if you’re a regular to this game of chasing saves, then you just keep doing what you do once you sell high on a bad closer. Go back to the wire and speculate on the relievers likely to pick up the job at some point. If you can, focus on those that can contribute positively in other categories while not providing saves.
Going back to the auction calculator, here are the names of the relievers projected to contribute positively on the whole despite not getting (m)any saves and who are reasonably close to a closing gig. They are listed along with their ESPN ownership percentages: Wade Davis (31%), Joel Peralta (0.9%), Ken Giles (65.5%), Sergio Romo (12.9%), Tony Watson (3.8%), Jordan Walden (0.5%), and Will Smith (0.2%).
You can find more of Brett's work on TheFantasyFix.com or follow him on Twitter @TheRealTAL.
I saw you lumped Hector Rondon in with a number of suspect closers. While I understand you’re casting a wide net and being fairly liberal with who you’re including, I think Rondon isn’t getting enough love. Is he a top-flight closer? No. But he had a genuinely very good 2014, striking out a batter an inning with an ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA all sub-3.00. No reason to think he won’t hold that job and perform well again this year I think.
Agree and as he is my sole closer in one league (I know – working on it), hoping for more of the same and that he stays healthy.
Fair enough. I almost put him in the second list of closers I might be willing to deal. No problem with holding on to him if you think he’s higher quality.
Last year I turned LaTroy into Alex Wood, while he was back in AAA. No one’s sleeping on what bottom-dwelling closers are, so this strategy works best if you target distressed goods.
In what universe is Wade Davis “reasonably close to a closer gig.” Standing between him and that role is Greg Holland, who is the fourth highest valued closer in MLB according to your auction calculator. So while Davis is stellar and will help fantasy teams, it’s doubtful it will be by providing saves.
It’s is helpful to target relievers on teams whose closers seem likely to falter. In Texas, for example, Keone Kela would be available in all but the deepest leagues – he’s a young fireballer who has already been placed as the 7th-inning set-up man.
By reasonably close, all I meant was that they’re one of the next guys up. Injuries happen, and all that is standing between Davis and a closing gig is an injury. I’m not saying Holland is an injury risk, I’m just saying it’s possible.
What isn’t possible? Why speculate?
I think “reasonably close to a closer gig” is fair. Davis is all-but-guaranteed the closer job if Holland gets hurt. A lot of closer handcuffs don’t have that guarantee.
Davis got saves last year, holland had injury issues and to be fair could easily burn out
And Holland has been on the reduced velocity chart since the end of last year. Just saying
Davis was one of 69 pitcher with at least 2 saves last year (he had three) and I have little doubt he will pickup a few this year as a setup man.
As for injury risk,he rested 10 days for a sore triceps last year but was still among the most effective closers in baseball. I’m not sure his risk is all that elevated compared to other closers. I guess we can see his velocity as he pitches this year; last season he velocity was barely down from the prior two years and above the two years prior to those.
Davis is a good pickup in any deep league regardless of saves. In deeper leagues, though, he’s long gone, so the task is finding relievers whose are much less known but who may have opportunity because the closer on their team is weak or a very heightened injury risk.
Hi, my name is Andrew Miller!
While I appreciate the analysis you’ve provided, I think it’s got some inherent flaws.
I think your analysis using dollar value is too simplistic. Those with not enough saves will have dramatically different player valuations compared to those with too many saves. For example, if LaTroy’s saves can get me a few places in the standings, he’s more than worth the slight cost in replacing him with a high K/low ERA Will Smith-esque reliever.
Likewise, trade value and dollar value are very different things. As Jerry said, LaTroy is not going to net you much in a trade. Huston Street, on the other hand, will probably net you someone tasty. In your valuations above, Street = LaTroy + $5. I would be willing to wager that the return on a Street trade would be > LaTroy’s return + $5. Therefore if you have faith in those above valuations and you have too many saves, it may be preferable to trade a better closer than a worse one.
It’s part of the reason I add to the statement “Don’t overpay for saves” the addition: “but closers make wonderful in-season trading chits”. I think this type of analysis would be greatly improved by considering the trade value aspect.
I use the dollar values for simplicity’s sake, yes. But I think the point is that maybe LaTroy’s saves don’t get you a few places in the standings. It’s easy to think they do because t’s easy to see the positive impact of the saves. But the negative impact he’s having on ratios and strikeouts isn’t so easy to see. Over the course of a season, I’m positive LaTroy will cost you a point or two in the other cats. And that’s kind of the whole point here. People values those saves more than they may be worth. And that’s why some of these guys may be worth dealing.
You’re right on the dollar values. They’re simplistic and not universally applicable. But I’m just using them to form a framework for the post.
I won 2 championships with Frieri and Balfour as my closers – never did offer them in a trade because I’m sure I would have been laughed at. Needless to say, my fingernails never grew out for those two years.
I realize that the answer is completely driven by league context, but what type of a player would you be looking to acquire for this class of closers?
Yeah, it’s a very league specific thing. But what I’d do is look at my roster and find a weakness I’d like to address. Then I’d look at the rosters of people with fewer closers and see if they have someone reasonable that would address my weakness.
Closer + weak MI for mediocre MI.
So youd rather own walden than jepsen or farqhuar if speculating saves?
Settle down on Rondon … his FIP was 2 runs less in ’14 than ’13; his ’14 HR/FB is completely unsustainable and is likely to double, if not triple; and he’s never really shown consistent control like he did in ’14 (unless you want to count low minors as a starter — I don’t)
Over Farqhuar, yes. Jepsen is a little bit of a different animal since that pen is less settled right now.
The problem with a number of these guys is that you are relying on projection systems to value relievers. Take Gregerson and his sub-3.00 ERA (sometimes by a lot) year after year after year… but projections have him around 3.60. Saves are also so context-dependent given how one’s draft happened to go. Sometimes if you do have a legitimately negative value RP it is still worth it if his saves will get you out of a large pack (e.g. 4 save points while his bad 55 innings only drop your ratios by one).
But the main thing is that I don’t think you should rely on projection systems when it comes to coming up with a dollar value for RP… they always assume way too much regression when we know that RP regularly have significantly better “luck” stats.
I’m just using the projections to show some pitchers are providing little value, no value or negative value in the non-save categories. Or maybe rather that certain closers are definitely providing value in the non-save cats. The specific numbers shouldn’t carry too much weight.
Thanks for the reply, and I do get your overall point. Just to use the same example, though, Gregerson should not be expected to be negative value in ERA, a non-save category.
I moved on from Mejia already, I sold him for cents on the dollar maybe, but I have zero faith he regains the closers role. Familia was arguably a better pitcher last year and considering the injury history and concerns about his durability I fear this wont be the last DL stint for Mejia this year.
I may get burned, but I think Familia runs with that job and keeps it this year, Parnell could pose a threat, but I think they will treat him with kid gloves for the first month he is back or so at least.
Familia wasn’t nearly as good last season as his ERA suggested. He also has a history of command issues, and while his walk rate was acceptable in 2014, being 7th worst among relievers in first strike percentage and being 26th worst in zone percentage suggests that his walk rate may have been a result of lucky sequencing and is unlikely to be repeated. If he gets a few saves under his belt, he would be a prime candidate for Mr. Talley’s selling suggestion.
I can see that, though I generally believe if you an get something of value for a RP, you should probably take it. I’m just not convinced that Mejia get’s the job back in the short term if he can get healthy.
I think the strategy is worth pursuing, but it works more on paper than it does in a league.
Some pitfalls
1.Your save totals will suffer as you are playing non-closers
2.Early in the season, many owners are less willing to trade
3.In the most popular 10-12 team leagues, the player you will receive in return is often not going to be much better than what you have.
Couple points that should be clarified:
These numbers are completely inaccurate for AL/NL- ONLY leagues, where the replacement level for a win is closer to -$1, rather than -$4. It’s only in mixed leagues where a waiver wire player can kick in 10/11 wins.
The saves value is also much higher in ONLY leagues, 40 saves is worth about $12 alone in ONLY leagues…
You’re also discounting the Variability of Middle Relievers versus Closers. Closers, if they produce league average stats, will still have value, and not lose their jobs. Middle Relievers will return NOTHING on investment, if they produce at league average or worse. And they DO. The top 30 non-closer Middle relievers, have the same or worse attrition as the 30 closers.
The worst Closers are still worth $10ish, if they get 30 saves, and the best MR are around $5-6 in ONLY leagues. (Some MR will end up higher, but few, and it’s random, ask Rex Brothers)
So the decisions just aren’t that clear as saves get more scarce.
Maybe I should have said this explicitly, but yes, past shallower mixed leagues, this may not apply.
Not sure KRod gets so little love, by xFIP and K rate he is near elite. Last year’s fluky high HR rate shouldn’t persist. Seems pretty similar to Rodney in that he has decided to stop walking people and deal with the occasional HR.
So sell high on half the league’s closers? Gotcha. Top notch analysis.
I enjoyed the article, contrary to the tenor of some of the comments. Hawkins is an obvious guy, but I like doing this with non-obvious candidates like Reed, Street, and Rondon.
But really, this is just a combination of two rules of thumb:
1. Don’t overvalue saves
2. Sell high early in the season
Where I think this strategy may have been more relevant is in your draft prep. You can perhaps justify a 4th and 5th closer over a 6th or 7th SP, knowing that you will likely have an opportunity to move the closer early on. Packaging a 6th or 7th starter to upgrade at another position rarely works.
Neftali Feliz is no scrub Conrad. His velo is back and he induces weak contact with the best of them. Projection systems underrate him big time.