Archive for Mike Zunino

RotoGraph’s Bold Predictions pieces make for an undoubtedly fun series to be a part of. The challenge is finding that sweet spot between bold and insane which, to my understanding, results in about 3 correct predictions out of 10. Last year, my first, my boldness led me off the deep end as faith in such luminaries as Aaron Hicks, Chris Heston, and Chris Bassit went unrewarded. Hard to believe.

But given that our job at RotoGraphs is to give our readers advice as to how they should manage their fantasy teams, it’s only fair that I put my money where my mouth is and base my predictions, to the extent possible, on players I’ve recently endorsed. So, with that said, let’s get bold!

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In the run-up to last season, I started a position-by-position series aimed at deep league owners and who, outside of the top 15 or 18 players at each position, they should target in drafts. I don’t know if it was helpful and I’m sure if I looked back at my picks, I’d find some duds in there. As I quickly found out covering my Deep League beat last season, finding studs amongst the bottom rung of players can often feel like an exercise in futility. But don’t tell that to deep league managers for whom there’s value in mediocrity. So, with that compelling introduction, let’s look at some mediocre catchers, eh?

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Mike Zunino reached the majors in 2013 with just 208 plate appearances in the upper minors on his resume. It’s not as if he raked his way to The Show, either. In 47 games at the Double-A level, he tallied a .238/.303/.503 line with a 105 wRC+. He also struck out a ton (28.4%) while walking at a low rate (6.7%). Alas, the M’s brass didn’t seem to care about his shortcomings at the dish.

Big leaguers exploited him, and he tallied a .214/.290/.329 line with a 77 wRC+ and a 25.4% strikeout rate. He spent the entire 2014 season in the majors and smacked 22 homers. That’s where the offensive positives end. His power was dragged down by a 33.2% strikeout rate and .199/.254/.404. He also grew more impatient and walked in just 3.6% of his plate appearances. Remarkably, things got worse for Zunino in 2015, yet he remained in the majors until the end of August. At that point, the Mariners finally sent him down to the minors for more seasoning.

His 47 wRC+ and 34.2% strikeout rate in 386 plate appearances in 2015 were dreadful, and not even his strong work behind the dish could make up for his truly dreadful offense. In general manager Jerry Dipoto’s second year with the Mariners, he and the rest of the M’s brass made the wise decision to start the year with off-season acquisition Chris Iannetta starting at catcher and 25-year-old Zunino starting at the Triple-A level.

Even after a fast start, the Mariners exercised patience and allowed the previously-rushed top-five pick the opportunity to hone his craft with the lumber in the minors, and he thrived (17 homers, 10.7% walk rate, 21.1% strikeout rate, .286/.376/.521 and 138 wRC+ in 327 plate appearances). His improvements in the minors resulted in a strong showing from July through the end of the season in the majors. What’s on the horizon for the still young backstop? Read the rest of this entry »

Lately, my articles have been pitcher-happy. This week, I have no pitchers to suggest adding. Instead, I’m turning my focus to a quartet of hitters who are 25 years of age of younger. Three of the hitters are currently in the minors, but now’s a good time to be proactive and nab them in deeper leagues as opposed to getting sniped by someone with a higher waiver claim or more FAAB dollars available when they are summoned to the parent club. Read the rest of this entry »

After 7 disappointing years under Jack Zduriencik (which followed 5 soul-crushing seasons under Bill Bavasi), new Mariners’ GM, Jerry Dipoto, raced up I-5 with a mandate to bring consistency and a fresh approach to the Emerald City. Faced with a number of holes to fill, the former Angels exec has already made a series of moves signaling a shift in the Mariners’ philosophy towards defense and on-base ability, a welcomed change from that of the last regime’s affinity for low on-base, immobile power hitters who strike out a lot. Huzzah.

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It has begun! May your leagues bring you much joy. What follows is one approach to auctions that should bring you future joy.

I participated in two auction drafts. In both, I decided to spend little on pitching. In The Fake Baseball’s Friends and Family League (TFBFFL), I spent almost the minimum on our (co-own the free team with Zach Sanders) rotation and bench. I spent $16.00 on 12 pitchers ($2 max), but the results were not horrible: Drew Hutchison, Homer Bailey, Carlos Martinez, Henderson Alvarez, Shelby Miller, John Lackey, Sean Doolittle, Carlos Rodon and Rafael Montero. I dropped Chad Qualls already for Zach McAllister. We have enough bats to upgrade.

In my next auction, I wanted two better pitchers, but I still gave myself a $40 cap. I wound up spending $45 on the following:

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Last week, I reviewed my NFBC Draft Champions League results. I think some of my speculative saves (Joel Peralta early on; Adam Ottavino later on) could come to fruition, and I am pretty bullish on the depth of my rotation. I have a sundry of sleepers that could provide supplemental value: Daniel Norris, Randall Delgado, Jaime Garcia, Rafael Montero, Trevor Cahill and Robbie Erlin.

With that said, some of the feedback was helpful. I agree that based on my closing situation (among other things), I can’t possibly compete for the grand prize unless I get very lucky. I also do not have enough sure-thing starters to punt saves altogether to at least ensure a league win.

I don’t agree with a lack of depth on offense. I have CI/OF flexibility and a sundry of power (Justin Smoak, Travis Snider) and speed (Billy Burns, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor) on the bench. My second catching slot is in question, but Caleb Joseph could provide some surprise value until Matt Wieters returns. I like Andrew Susac, but I need to hope for a Buster Posey or Brandon Belt injury.

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You have seen some Tout and LABR reviews for the past few weeks here on the site. We all can’t be so lucky to participate in such glorious leagues. On the other hand, we can all take part in NFBC leagues.

NFBC’s $150 NFBC Draft Champions leagues are a perfect format for me:

a) I have impending time constraints including my first child in June!

b) I didn’t have to ask my wife for permission to use our mutual bank account.

c) I was able to dwell on each pick if/when needed (8 hours to make a pick) and

d) There are no trades or free agent pick-ups once the draft is complete. This feature is my wife’s favorite, and I appreciate the preventative collusion measures. I am also much more interested in draft strategy and player projections/rankings/draft position than I am jumping on small sample sizes in-season.

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As I write this, Mike Trout is sporting a .556 batting average in Spring Training. I also had the pleasure of drafting him first overall in my NFBC Draft Champions league. To celebrate his feat and my luck, I am shooting for at least five of nine of the following bold predictions.

Here goes (extra ballsy right from the start):

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Fantasy baseball players, coming into this season, probably knew that Mike Zunino has shortcomings. Most of them have to do with his hitting. But some drafters were happy to target him as a dirt-cheap second catcher in two-C mixed leagues, for example. I wasn’t one of them.

I thought that those folks were excessively ambitious. There existed significant power in his Louisville Sluggers, but I didn’t believe that he’d go deep often enough to satisfy my hopes for one of my choices at the position. And I value power production most from my catchers. I’m more than willing to swallow a crap batting average for 20 bombs. I figured that his major contact problem and thorough lack of experience against even pro competition, period, would prevent him from threatening, perhaps even sniffing, that level.

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