Mariners’ Playing Time Battles: Hitters

After 7 disappointing years under Jack Zduriencik (which followed 5 soul-crushing seasons under Bill Bavasi), new Mariners’ GM, Jerry Dipoto, raced up I-5 with a mandate to bring consistency and a fresh approach to the Emerald City. Faced with a number of holes to fill, the former Angels exec has already made a series of moves signaling a shift in the Mariners’ philosophy towards defense and on-base ability, a welcomed change from that of the last regime’s affinity for low on-base, immobile power hitters who strike out a lot. Huzzah.

Dipoto has made significant strides this offseason in remaking the lineup, particularly at catcher, first base, and centerfield where last year Mariners hitters combined for -1.5 WAR.

Sinking the Mariners
2015 WAR MLB Rank
Catcher -1.9 30th
First Base -0.7 28th
Centerfield 1.1 26th

Outfield

While Nelson Cruz’ 4.8 WAR was the 5th highest mark among right fielders, his dilettantish take to defense has likely relegated him to full-time DH duties. So Dipoto, in an effort to become more athletic in the outfield, brought in Leonys Martin and Nori Aoki. Now flush with players who, while capable, each possess significant faults, the Mariners’ playing time battles start in the outfield.

Martin plays a superb centerfield. This  is important because he doesn’t hit for power nor does he hit lefties. In fact, he doesn’t really even hit for average, having never hit above .280. What Martin does well is play defense and steal bases, 20% of which have actually come with a lefty on the mound. So even if new manager, Scott Servais, plays him against southpaws, he still has value on the base paths. Steamer project 21 steals in about ¾ of a season’s worth of plate appearances which, given Seattle’s renewed focus on defense and athleticism, sounds about right to me.

Seth Smith enters 2016 as the Mariners’ starting right fielder. An above average bat versus righties, Smith is only a shade better than Martin against lefties, creating another outfield platoon. He’s certainly worth owning in daily-update leagues where you can sit him against lefties and particularly, OBP leagues, where his patience plays well.

Most days, Seattle will be starting three left-handed outfielders with newcomer Nori Aoki starting in left. But unlike his other outfield battery mates, Aoki actually possesses reverse platoon splits, sporting a career 118 wRC+ against like-handed pitchers. While he hasn’t manned center in two seasons, he’s penciled in as Martin’s backup, so he’ll likely play center and possibly right field against lefties.

This opens the door for two of the more intriguing names on the M’s roster, Franklin Gutierrez and Boog Powell. Finally overcoming a nasty case of IBS and ankylosing spondylitis, Guti reminded Mariners fans of slightly better old times. No longer capable of the same preternatural ball hunting feats in center that defined his early career, he’s now an above average corner outfielder.

But something funny happened last season at the plate. Guti hit .292/.354/.620 with 15 homers in just under 200 plate appearances. Obviously, his 35.7% HR/FB rate is unsustainable and his BABIP is due for some regression too. But Guti posted the highest LD% of his career and his Hard% would have been tied with Miguel Cabrera’s for 8th in MLB last season had he qualified. He also showed some of his best plate discipline in years. While he’s certainly due for some regression, I’m not yet ready to write last season off as a complete fluke.

Now injuries are another matter. He hasn’t played a full season since 2010 and I don’t expect that to change this year. But if he does hit, expect him to find ABs somewhere, initially versus lefties against whom he possesses a career .200 ISO and .360 wOBA, and should he stay healthy, perhaps against righties too.

Acquired in the trade for Nate Karns, Boog Powell figures to start 2016 in the majors. He brings an advanced approach to the plate, combining high walk rates with manageable strikeouts. While possessing excellent speed, Powell has been caught stealing 42% of the time in the minors. He’ll need to improve on the base paths before the M’s cut him loose.

Powell is considered a plus defender and sits 3rd on the depth chart in center. He didn’t really exhibit consistent or strong platoon splits in the minors, which given his defense and the current outfield’s struggles versus lefties, bodes well for his playing time, even if in a reserve role.

Shawn O’Malley nor Stefen Romero figure to play much of a role this season even if they break camp with the club. Neither hit for much power nor possess elite plate discipline. O’Malley has shown flashes of speed on the bases in the minors but, like Romero, he’s too buried on the depth chart to have a fantasy impact.

First Base

First base is a timeshare between Adam Lind and either Jesus Montero, Gaby Sanchez, or Dae-Ho Lee. The always underrated Lind hit .291/.380/.503 against righties last year but moves from one of the great parks for lefty homerun hitters to one that’s merely average. Plan accordingly. Lind is not a starting first baseman in standard leagues but is certainly worth a bench spot. Capable of filling in admirably for an injury, he can also play a significant role in deeper leagues.

Montero’s skill set is hardly unique and tragically familiar to Mariners fans. He swings way too much, misses far too often. He doesn’t walk, doesn’t play defense. Had he qualified last year, Montero would have been the proud owner of the league’s 2nd highest chase and 3rd highest whiff rates. Alarmingly absent either of the two aspirational cornerstones of the new Dipoto Era, athleticism and on-base ability, Montero has little to offer fantasy owners.

Gaby Sanchez spent last year in Japan playing for the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles for whom he hit .226/.328/.392 with 7 homeruns over 232 plate appearances. His NPB batting line eerily resembles that of his last season in the majors, when he hit .229/.293/.385 with 7 homeruns over 290 plate appearances with the Pirates. Signed to a minor league deal with Seattle, there’s really nothing to see here.

33 year-old KBO and NPB veteran, Dae-Ho Lee, also joins the Mariners on a minor league contract. Lee hit 31 homeruns last season in Japan and enters camp vying for the short side of the first base platoon. Despite his impressive 2015 batting line, Lee arrives without much fanfare, likely due to his advanced age and inability or unwillingness to showcase the elite bat flipping skills of some of his more notable and youthful contemporaries.

Catcher

There’s not much of a playing time battle behind the dish quite yet but it’s not hard to foresee one arising. Chris Iannetta, catcher of choice during Dipoto’s reign in an Anaheim, joins him in Seattle. We know all we need to know about Iannetta at this point – solid walk rates and strong batting lines against lefties. Disappointing power and below average versus righties.

As far as playing time goes, he may have turned a corner with regards to pitch framing, making him more valuable defensively. But catcher defensive metrics what they are, it’s difficult to take any sudden improvements to the bank. He’s likely due some positive BABIP regression but still not worth owning in standard or one-catcher leagues as he could lose some ABs against righties to backup, Steve Clevenger.

Clevenger, acquired from Baltimore this winter for Mark Trumbo, featured a plate discipline profile last season in limited playing time that hints at some potential upside. His contact and whiff rates both rated better than average, keeping his strikeouts low, but he was a little looser out of the zone than he had been prior to last season. Not surprisingly, his walk rate dropped significantly. Steamer sees a rebound there, however at the expense of some power.

Mike Zunino, enters the season as the 3rd string catcher however will likely start the year in AAA. Recognizing his development may have been rushed, Dipoto made clear that after a challenging 2015, the organization will focus on Zunino’s development at the minor league level, even if it takes all season. Barring some injury or offensive epiphany, don’t expect the former prospect to be a fantasy revelation in 2016.





Rylan writes for Fangraphs and The Hardball Times. Look for his weekly Deep League Waiver Wire and The Chacon Zone columns this season.

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