A Bit of Appreciation for Mike Zunino

Fantasy baseball players, coming into this season, probably knew that Mike Zunino has shortcomings. Most of them have to do with his hitting. But some drafters were happy to target him as a dirt-cheap second catcher in two-C mixed leagues, for example. I wasn’t one of them.

I thought that those folks were excessively ambitious. There existed significant power in his Louisville Sluggers, but I didn’t believe that he’d go deep often enough to satisfy my hopes for one of my choices at the position. And I value power production most from my catchers. I’m more than willing to swallow a crap batting average for 20 bombs. I figured that his major contact problem and thorough lack of experience against even pro competition, period, would prevent him from threatening, perhaps even sniffing, that level.

Zunino, with a .194/.249/.398 slash line in 437 plate appearances, has actually been a good bit better than I expected. The .204 ISO, unlike some of his other marks, sticks out in a good way. (He’s one of only five players, minimum 400 PAs, with an ISO better than his AVG this season. Shockingly, the averages of three of them are below the Mendoza Line. The other two are Chris Carter [.236 AVG] and – time to adore him – Edwin Encarnacion [.264 AVG].) Rotisserie and head-to-head players can applaud Zunino’s 20 bombs; only 50 players have reached that mark this season, so far.

Given what Zunino has accomplished – seemingly not great, but perhaps not so bad, right? – I’ve seen some folks occasionally express disappointment with or throw criticism at him for the type of season he’s had. This might not – probably isn’t – a widespread sentiment. But it prompted me to wonder if I’d been overvaluing the power he’s displayed or I should start to think of him as a pretty overrated prospect, even at this stage of his career.

In fantasy baseball terms, Zunino has been a top-15 asset at catcher, I think. I use the Razzball Player Rater for in-season evals because (1) FanGraphs’ doesn’t have one of those – yet; (2) I don’t trust the season-to-date fantasy evaluations of the major commercial hosts, which I suspect to be based on archaic valuation methods or which appear to assign too much importance to batting average, in my estimation; (3) I know the Razzball guys, and the fella who designed their Player Rater is pretty good at data assessment; and (4) then I don’t have to make one, which would take me a lot of time.

Maybe those things makes me biased. I like to think that 20 HR is more valuable than the sub-.200 AVG from the smaller sample of catcher PT is harmful. I like to think that Zunino is the 14th-best C-eligible player, like Razzball says, and not 23rd or 25th, the way he is at Yahoo! or ESPN – relative to both popular hosts’ default formats, even.

Zunino’s defense almost assured him of the majority of the playing time behind the plate with the Seattle Mariners this year, it’s worth nothing. He’s in the top 50 in Def in 2014. Among catchers who have caught at least 1,000 pitches this season, he’s ninth in extra strikes generated per game (1.36); with a minimum of 5,000 offerings handled, sixth. He’s thrown out 30% of base-stealers, 5% better than league average. Assessments of defense are still far from science, but the University of Florida product is considered a total-package-type from that aspect.

Anyway, that stuff probably doesn’t provide you with enough to change your viewpoint if you label Zunino a disappointment because of his glaring faults. Those things don’t change the fact that he’s been a drag in batting average. The 33.4% strikeout rate and 18.3% are atrocious. Traits like those make a player smell like one with a doomed future.

First, however, critics could cut him a little slack. The Seattle Mariners rushed him to The Show, and they know that. Their expectations for his offense in the early stages of his career aren’t great. Lloyd McClendon in July helped to put Zunino’s fast track to the majors in perspective. Zunino, 23 years and 5 months old, had a total of 505 professional plate appearances, including his stint in the Arizona Fall League, before he made his major league debut. Barely a full season’s worth at one level … spread out at four different stops. Then, boom, he’s in The Show. As a regular catcher, for whom defensive responsibilities are the job by themselves.

Second, there’s a rarity factor to Zunino’s power production. The number of rookie catchers to hit 20-plus – even 15-plus – home runs in a season isn’t long. Zunino, who accumulated 193 plate appearances in 2013, doesn’t even qualify for the list, though, so why bother to point that out? He exhausted his rookie status in his age-22 campaign, which for each of the players on that list with at least 20 bombs is at least a year before their rookie seasons, with the exceptions of Earl Williams (1971), who spent nearly half of his PT at positions besides catcher that year. The names on that list are pretty good. Zunino would be on it had the Seattle Mariners just been a little more patient.

A slightly different perspective: On list of catchers who were under the age of 25 in a season, Zunino’s 20 homers tie him for 24th on it. There are still almost two weeks remaining in the 2014 campaign. There are some impressive names on that list, by the way.

Zunino has done this despite an immediate swing-and-miss problem. He’s done it having played half of his contests at Safeco Field, where after renovations to the outfield walls, the 2013 park factor for left field is 97. He’s hit 10 bombs in 230 plate appearances there. And, basically, for every Houston (105 LF PF, 19 PA, 2 HR) or Texas (106 RHB PF, 24 PA, 2 HR) on his schedule, there has been an Anaheim (95 LF PF 22 PA, 1 HR) or Oakland (96 LF PF, 31 PA, 1 HR).

I’m not saying that home runs define offensive value, we should be in awe of Zunino’s performance at the plate in 2014, or the odds are good that he’ll be a Hall of Fame catcher. I’m saying that if you’re knocking Zunino’s 2014 fantasy value or labeling him as an eventual, perhaps even soon-to-be, failure, then I think that you’re rushing to judgment. I’m saying that his 20 dingers this year did some fantasy owners a solid.

It’s fair practice to disapprove of players who aren’t disciplined, Zunino included. Those types of hitters don’t often succeed, at least in the long term. But he’s far from a finished product as a hitter, and his college and minor league records suggest that there’s certainly room to grow as one. His farm ISOs portend the possibility of a better bust rate than the average swing-and-miss machine. There’s some acknowledgment from the organization and the player that such development has been secondary to what the player can provide while donning the mask and mitt. Given those circumstances, then, his power production is kind of impressive, and he could become notably better within a couple of years.





Nicholas Minnix oversaw baseball content for six years at KFFL, where he held the loose title of Managing Editor for seven and a half before he joined FanGraphs. He played in both Tout Wars and LABR from 2010 through 2014. Follow him on Twitter @NicholasMinnix.

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Angel Dust in the Outfield
9 years ago

This article is basically 14 paragraphs of Mike Zunino’s mom saying he’s very handsome.

Steve
9 years ago

Someone’s jealous…

evo34
9 years ago

14 paragraphs to state that he is a top-15 catcher. I fear the length of a top-25 catcher article.