Rylan Edwards’ Bold Predictions for 2017

RotoGraph’s Bold Predictions pieces make for an undoubtedly fun series to be a part of. The challenge is finding that sweet spot between bold and insane which, to my understanding, results in about 3 correct predictions out of 10. Last year, my first, my boldness led me off the deep end as faith in such luminaries as Aaron Hicks, Chris Heston, and Chris Bassit went unrewarded. Hard to believe.

But given that our job at RotoGraphs is to give our readers advice as to how they should manage their fantasy teams, it’s only fair that I put my money where my mouth is and base my predictions, to the extent possible, on players I’ve recently endorsed. So, with that said, let’s get bold!

Bold Prediction #1: Mike Zunino finishes as a top 12 catcher

Living in the Northwest, I’ve followed Mike Zunino throughout a professional career that took him from Everett to Tacoma and eventually Seattle. That’s before the club sent him back to Tacoma again. And then back up to Seattle. Then down to Tacoma one more time before finally enjoying a short but productive stint with the big club that locked him in as the Mariners’ starting backstop entering 2017.

In part, I like Zunino for what he does well, prodigious power coupled with strong defense at a premium position. But mostly, I can’t help but feel sorry for the guy because of the way the organization has handled him, unfairly placing upon him its colossal expectations while bouncing him back and forth between levels. Last year however, it seemed as if something finally clicked. Starting the season in AAA, Zunino found the ability to take a pitch for a ball instead of trying to yank it over the left field fence. His walk rate jumped to nearly 11%, while he cut his strikeouts and hit for his trademark power.

Upon his promotion to the Majors, Zunino continued to walk and hit bombs, even increasing his walk rate and ISO, though his strikeout rate rose above his career average. Statcast liked what he did too as he barreled up the ball at elite rates, ranking in the 99^th percentile in Barrels per Batted Ball Event and 96^th percentile in Average Distance. Now, this isn’t too say he didn’t overachieve with a 23% homer-to-fly ball rate but nevertheless he made excellent contact. It’s still unclear exactly how sticky these stats are yet, especially over small sample sizes like Zunino’s 192 plate appearances, but including AAA, Zunino’s heightened performance spanned more than 500 plate appearances. So, I’m buying in.

Depending on the input system, our auction calculator projects Zunino as the 17^th or 18^th most valuable catcher this season and NFBC drafters are taking him 20^th at the position. For him to reach top-12 status, he’ll need to leapfrog players like Francisco Cervelli, Cameron Rupp, Tom Murphy, Yadier Molina, and Beef Welington. Zunino clearly possesses the power to do so; it’s a question of whether his newfound selectivity sticks to amass enough plate appearances, runs, and RBI.

 

Bold Prediction #2: Justin Bour hits 25 homers

Justin Bour enters 2017 as the Marlins’ starting first baseman and for the first time, he doesn’t appear to have a platoon partner. In fact, the front office has explicitly stated that it plans “to challenge him more and expose him more to left-handed pitching.” Great! Except for this one little fact:

Now, I realize that 25 homers in today’s inflated offensive environment may not seem that bold especially given that prorating Bour’s 2016 season over 600 plate appearances results in 28 bombs. But remember that he posted his impressive .264/.349/.475 batting line having faced lefties in just 9% of his plate appearances last season. If Bour comes to the plate 600 times in 2017, something he’s never done in his brief career, he’ll have to face lefties far more often and won’t be nearly as productive per plate appearance as he was last season.

Bour also still hits way too many grounders, something he’ll need to improve upon if he hopes to leave the yard more often. Luckily for fantasy owners, that’s something he appears to be working on, having decreased his ground ball rate from 53% in 2014 to 48% in 2015 to 44% in 2016. I really like Bour as a deep league play this year but he possesses upside to be a mixed league relevant corner infielder if just a few things break his way.

 

Bold Prediction #3: Carlos Martinez finishes Top 5 in NL Cy Young Voting

This might be a little ambitious considering that by WAR, Carlos Martinez was only the 12^th best pitcher in the NL last season. He finished with a 3.04 ERA, good for 13^th among NL starters who tossed at least 100 innings. This is despite the fact his K%-BB% ranked 37^th and his FIP and xFIP were both considerably higher than his ERA. This prediction is not just a bet that Martinez continues to build off of two excellent seasons but also that his contact management is a repeatable skill. And I believe that it is for two reasons.

The first is that Martinez possesses elite ground ball-inducing stuff. Last season, he ranked 4^th in baseball among qualified starters with a 56.4% ground ball rate. In 2015, he ranked 8^th at 54.5%. As a hitter, it’s hard to hit balls over the fence when you’re pounding the ball into the ground more than half the time and this is reflected in Martinez’ microscopic HR/9 over the past two seasons.

The other reason is that Martinez was the only pitcher in the league with three offerings that moved both horizontally and vertically more than average while also stealing called strikes at above average frequency. This suggests that it’s difficult for hitters to judge and square up balls in the zone. This doesn’t mean they won’t hit the ball hard when they swing, but it does mean they’re taking strikes more often, forcing themselves into pitcher’s counts against someone who boasts huge velocity and a deep repertoire.

I’ve already followed my own advice and bought in big this season, trading for him in two Ottoneu leagues. Carlos Martinez is an ace pitching for a team projected to contend for a playoff spot. He received fewer Cy Young votes than Tanner Roark last season so top-5 may be a stretch but isn’t that the point?

 

Bold Prediction #4: Aaron Nola strikes out 175 batters and finishes the season with an ERA under 3.

In his ascent through the Minor Leagues, Aaron Nola never flashed big strikeout stuff. Then last season, over the course of 111 innings, he struck out 121 Major League batters. With a deep arsenal and excellent control, Nola steals a ton of called strikes. In fact, his 55.7% Zone-swing percentage was the lowest among starters who tossed at least 100 innings last season. Like Martinez, Nola also boasts multiple offerings that move across both axes more than average and benefit from better than average called strike-to-ball ratios.

I’m betting that a return to health results in more innings and that the natural progression of a 23-year old already equipped with excellent command and stuff leads to a better swinging strike rates on his secondary offerings. Additionally, his ground ball rate, particularly on his curve, stifles homers helping his ERA despite pitching in a tough ballpark.

 

Bold Prediction #5: Jackie Bradley Jr. finishes 2017 as a top 10 OF in OBP leagues

Depending on the system, our auction calculator currently projects Jackey Bradley Jr. to be, at best, the 40^th most valuable outfielder in 5×5 leagues that use OBP instead of batting average. Hinky! Last season, Bradley Jr. was the 12^th most valuable player in that format meaning that to achieve top 10 status, he’ll have to leapfrog players like Mark Trumbo and Ian Desmond (doable) while fending off the likes of Yoenis Cespedes and Gregory Polanco (less so).

JBJ hit a career high 26 homers in 2016, scored 94 runs, and knocked in 87 more. He also walked in 10% of his plate appearances. Now, that represents a drop from his 2015 walk rate. Last season Bradley Jr. became less selective, chasing more often (though still below league average) but also posting career high contact rates both in and out of the zone. A return to his 2015 levels of selectivity combined with his 2016 contact rate could be a boon for both his average and OBP. Now, it’s possible that his growth offensively is negatively correlated with his previous passivity but I’ll venture to say that swinging at fewer balls off the plate will ultimately help his cause rather than hurt it.

 

Bold Prediction #6: Gregory Polanco is a top 10 OF in Mixed Leagues

This might be a hedge of my previous prediction but I’m all in on Polanco in 2017. Before injuries began to take their toll last season, Polanco was in the midst of a breakout, posting a 128 wRC+ with 12 homers and 9 stolen bases through the first half. More importantly, he showed significant progress against lefties, against whom he hung a 106 wRC+ and .224 ISO. For reference, in 2015 his wRC+ was just 46 and his ISO .087 against southpaws.

At this point, the biggest challenge Polanco faces is a balky shoulder and knee, potentially limiting his ability to hit for power and steal bases, respectively. Still, entering his age-25 season, he’s already amassed over 1500 Major League plate appearances and shown steady progress along the way. The list of comps is also pretty damn encouraging.

 

Bold Prediction #7: Hector Neris saves 30 games

I know, I know, Jeanmar Gomez is the closer in Philly. But he scuffled hard towards the end of last season and even when he was racking up the saves, the underlying skills were poor giving the impression he was holding onto the job by the skin of his teeth. Hector Neris meanwhile, dominated, pitching 80 innings during which he struck out 31% of the batters he faced on his way to a 2.58 ERA. His 15.4% swinging strike rate ranked 11^th in the league. By comparison, Gomez vomited up a 4.85 ERA, striking out just 15.8% of the batters he faced.

Gomez likely enters the season with one of the league’s more tenuous grips on the ninth inning and has a beast breathing down his neck. I anticipate this will be one of the first closer controversies we see in 2017.

 

Bold Prediction #8: 2017 is the year of the multi-inning relief ace

Last season, Chris Devenski burst onto the scene with 83.2 relief innings, over which he struck out 83 batters on his way to a 1.61 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. On its surface, his line isn’t all that significant. Undoubtedly, it’s a great performance and particularly because it came over a lot of innings. Devenski ranked 3^rd in relief innings behind Brad Hand and Erasmo Ramirez. But while Hand and Ramirez required 82 and 63 relief appearances to get there, respectively, Devenski needed just 43, averaging 1.95 innings per appearance. Among pitchers who tossed at least 60 relief innings, only Vance Worley averaged more than two innings per appearance.

By WAR, the un(der)heralded Devenski ranked 9^th among relievers. And it seems teams have caught on. As Jeff Zimmerman alluded to in his piece on relief aces for The Hardball Times, Devenski and Michael Feliz in Houston, Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen in Cincinnati, and David Phelps in Miami, among others, are all slated to be used in multi-inning roles this season. Each of these pitchers, including Worley and Ramirez, have started professionally and experienced various but, in aggregate, mostly middling levels of success doing so. They’re just the type of pitcher to excel in multi-inning relief situations and I think they’re going to have a big fantasy impact in 2017.

So how do I quantify this? I’m not sure but I’m going to take a stab anyway. My bold prediction is that 5 or more of the top 30 relievers will  have averaged at least 1.25 innings per relief appearance. For context:

• A pitcher who averaged 1.25 innings per relief appearance last season would rank in the 73^rd percentile in that stat so we’re talking about just a few relievers who would even qualify. The average for all relievers was 1.08 innings per relief appearance.
• Of 2016’s top 30 relievers as identified by our auction calculator, not a single one averaged 1.25 innings per relief appearance. In fact, the closest anyone came was Dan Otero at 1.13 innings per relief appearance. The average for this group was 1.00.

So, I’m banking on the multi-inning relief ace becoming a large enough trend in 2017 to provide a sufficient sample of pitchers to qualify and that those pitchers won’t lose effectiveness pitching 25% more innings per appearance. To be honest, I don’t know if this prediction is bold, sheepish, or wholly irrelevant.

 

Bold Prediction #9: Tyler Flowers finishes 2017 as a top 15 catcher in mixed leagues.

This might look very similar to my Zunino prediction but I admit I’m struggling for originality here. Tyler Flowers is a Statcast darling who, since last season, has flattened out his strike zone and exhibited far more selectivity at the plate. Last season, Flowers walked in 8.9% of his plate appearances, a 32.8% improvement over his career numbers up to that point. He also laid off pitches up-and-in, which he previously loved, helping him avoid the pop-up and evenly spray the ball over the field.

I don’t see a lot of BABIP upside here. In fact, while his skill set lends itself to elevated BABIPs, we should expect it to decrease some. Flowers’ problem is that he swings and misses far too often, striking out in 28% of his plate appearances. Nevertheless, he’s now cut down on both his whiff and chase rates for three consecutive seasons so there may be more improvement in store.

Flowers is going 27^th at the position in NFBC drafts and is projected by our auction calculator to be the 29^th most valuable catcher so a top 15 finish would be pretty remarkable. But given the quality of his contact, the steady improvement in his plate discipline, and the lack of competition for at bats in Atlanta (sorry, Kurt Suzuki), I’ll venture to say Flowers puts it all together for a career year in 2017.

 

Bold Prediction #10: Congratulations, Yoenis Cespedes, 2017’s NL MVP!

La Potencia will get there by hitting 40 jacks and posting a .300/.370/.550 line! Now, don’t include that as part of my prediction as that line represents career highs across the board. That he wins MVP is bold enough. But Cespedes has steadily improved his plate discipline over the course of a career that’s seen extraordinary peaks and frustrating valleys. To see him add that aspect to his game while maintaining his reputation as one of the premier mashers of tightly-stitched cowhide has truly made him one of the most exciting players in MLB to watch and root for.

The most homers Cespedes has ever hit was 35 in 2015 for the Tigers and Mets. Due to a variety of minor maladies last season, he fell short of that mark, making it to the plate only 543 times after having averaged 661 plate appearances the previous two seasons. While he’s tearing up the exhibition season right now, Cespedes has also been held out a couple games for quad soreness, which caused him to miss some time last season. Still, he’s been remarkably consistent at the plate these last two years, posting back-to-back .251 ISOs and some of the highest exit velocities in baseball. Possessing the best plate discipline and power of his career, all that stands in the way between Cespedes and the MVP is health. And Kris Bryant and Clayton Kershaw.

 

Bonus Bold Prediction: Junior Guerra shalt rock thy world

Don’t ask me to quantify a good world rockin’. All I know is that Junior Guerra is currently the 74th pitcher off the board despite being in possession of three above average pitches. His 4-seamer and slider both earn more whiffs per swing and grounders per ball-in-play than average and his splitter, while below average in ground ball rate, is devastating in terms of whiffs.

With cheddar that averages 94 mph, Guerra would sit a lot higher on people’s radar if he wasn’t a 32-year old sophomore. Don’t be an ageist. Health is a concern for any pitcher and there’s top 50 starter potential here.