Archive for Mike Moustakas

My first reaction to Maikel Franco agreeing to sign a one-year, $2.95 million deal with the Royals was one of slight disappointment. After four years of being roughly league-average or worse, I did not have high expectations for Franco going into 2020, but in leaving one of the majors’ best home run parks for right-handed hitters for one of the worst, my expectations got even lower.

Then in looking over Franco’s stats as a Phillie, something occurred to me. He has an incredibly similar profile to another third baseman who has been a much better home run hitter than Franco has been in recent years. While Franco has averaged 22.5 at-bats for every home run going back to 2016, this other third baseman has needed only 16.3 at-bats per homer over the same period. Here is how these two third basemen have stacked up for each of the last four seasons.

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There aren’t many players who have had as interesting, or perhaps as volatile, a career arc as Mike Moustakas has. His last few seasons have featured him being demoted to the minor leagues, finally experiencing a breakout, tearing his ACL, and, most recently, the fact that he’s set to be featured in this year’s Home Run Derby. Having already set a new career high in home runs, and currently posting the highest isolated power of his career, it probably isn’t a surprise that we’ll see him participate in the event in Miami.

Even less surprising, though, may be the influx in power that we’ve seen from Moustakas. A player who gradually improved his ability to make contact, with rising Contact% figures that peaked across his 113 plate appearances in 2016, at 86.2, while also focusing more on taking the ball to the opposite field (30.8 Oppo% last year), resulted in him reestablishing value after it looked like he was a lost cause at the hot corner in Kansas City. This year, we’re continuing to see Mike Moustakas evolve, but in a completely different way.

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Early Average Draft Position is such an astounding thing, as typical and interesting draft tendencies are widely reflected in it. Rookies and inexperienced players being taken too high, quality performers being limited because of a smaller market, etc. Also, Josh Donaldson as the fourth third baseman on average? Come on. With that in mind, it makes sense to look at some of those ADP figures and examine who could be a potential sleeper in drafts as the month of March continues to barrel toward the regular season. Those identified as “sleepers” here are based primarily off of their ADP more so than name recognition.

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It’s that wonderful time of year where preliminary positional rankings starting pouring out for the upcoming season. Because I needed another reason to look like a fool by the end of it. The third base position opens 2017 with plenty of intrigue, with a couple of newish faces to the mix and one notable name departing for a new position. Let’s all pour one out for Matt Carpenter. My goal is to be far more consistent on the rankings side in 2017, which means more opportunity for folks to ponder, “Just what in the world is this guy thinking?”

Let’s get to it with some cleverly named tiers:

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If there was one thing that made me sad, as far as the third base position is concerned, in 2016, it was a decided lack of Mike Moustakas. A long-time favorite of mine that had finally established himself among the more reliable options at the hot corner, Moose was only able to notch 113 plate appearances before a torn ACL at the end of May put an end to his season far too early. As we crawl ever closer to the spring, Moustakas’ return is one thing that I’ll be keeping an eye on when the Kansas City Royals arrive in Arizona.

It’ll be interesting to see how Moustakas transitions back into regular playing time at third base after recovering from an injury of that severity. With a shade under eight months of recovery by the time the season rolls around, one would expect that he’ll be back to full strength when the games begin to matter. And given the trends that he was displaying in 2015 and to start 2016, there isn’t any reason to think that he can’t pick up right where he left off and turn in a strong return in 2017.

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Perhaps more than anything, the Kansas City Royals are a lesson in maintaining patience with your prospects. It was true with Alex Gordon, who got off to a slow start in his career and now represents one of the more consistent outfielders in the game, in a variety of ways. It was probably even more true of Mike Moustakas, who as recently as 2014 spent time in the minor leagues. And yet, here we are just a couple of years later, living in a world where Mike Moustakas has become a reliable presence not just for the defending World Champions, but for prospective fantasy owners as well.

For Moustakas, 2015 featured career highs across the board. He hit 22 home runs, knocked in 84, with a slash that went .284/.348/.470/.817. His ability to hit for extra bases was reflected in his .186 ISO, which ranked eighth among big league third sackers. His 124 wRC+ also, unsurprisingly, represented a career mark and trailed only names like Josh Donaldson, Matt Carpenter, Kris Bryant, and Manny Machado in that regard. So exactly what changed for Moustakas, and how has he furthered that development into what could be another career campaign in 2016?

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As we approach the end of the first month of the 2016 Major League season, there’s obviously plenty to dissect. From a third base perspective, we’ll unpack a lot of that when we get to the first set of real, actual, less-leaning-upon-conjecture rankings in the coming days. But nothing says we can’t look at some things just a touch early.

For the most part, the top guys have been the top guys. If there was a “Stock Right Where It Was Expected to Be” category, these guys would fit the bill. Manny Machado leads the category, while Nolan Arenado and Josh Donaldson aren’t too far behind. Kris Bryant is right in the mix as well, keeping all of the top tier players from those initial rankings in that upper tier, just perhaps with some reordering. Beyond that top tier, though, there’s certainly going to be some shakeup. Some guys have emerged, some guys have fallen off the map almost completely, and some guys are just there. Looking at some of these stocks will give us a better idea of what the next set of rankings could look like.

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To me, the saying “opposites attract” is all about baseball, and not just because I’m single. Of course the “opposite” in this context means hitting the ball the other way. Now as you probably guessed from the title, I’ve taken a keen interest in Mike Moustakas smacking the ball to the opposite field this season, a new development for the left-handed hitting third baseman. He owns an impressive .297/.357/.441 batting line, good for a .349 wOBA. A number of things have improved in Moustakas’ game this season, but we’ll first focus on his batted ball splits. The defensive shifts haven’t paid off against him this season when compared to prior years, and the table below helps show why. Read the rest of this entry »

The first few weeks of the season is dangerous territory to be making any kind of declarations, as you dedicated minions of the small sample size know all too well. Third base has typically been my beat, and I’m certainly not interested in ringing the alarm of Adrian Beltre‘s .158 batting average nor am I bandwagoning onto Luis Valbuena’s .356 ISO. Players have strong starts, they have cold starts, our job is to remember the whole marathon versus sprint metaphor.

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Everyone loves a sleeper. I’d say this is an indisputable fact — or close to it. Not all sleepers are the same, though, and I find the post-hype sleeper to be the most rewarding type to peg correctly. Perhaps I’m just a sucker for tools being actualized and promising prospects figuring it out after struggling initially. While the season isn’t even a week old yet, let’s check in on a few post-hype sleepers who are off to a good start. Read the rest of this entry »