The Opposite Effect: Mike Moustakas Edition

To me, the saying “opposites attract” is all about baseball, and not just because I’m single. Of course the “opposite” in this context means hitting the ball the other way. Now as you probably guessed from the title, I’ve taken a keen interest in Mike Moustakas smacking the ball to the opposite field this season, a new development for the left-handed hitting third baseman. He owns an impressive .297/.357/.441 batting line, good for a .349 wOBA. A number of things have improved in Moustakas’ game this season, but we’ll first focus on his batted ball splits. The defensive shifts haven’t paid off against him this season when compared to prior years, and the table below helps show why.

	Pulled%	Center%	Opposite%	BABIP
2011-2014	46.3%	32%	21.7%	.260
2015	35.6%	32.5%	31.8%	.310

A 10 percent shift away from being so pull happy and instead going to the opposite field has been a big part of Moustakas’ offensive improvement. As one may expect, you can also see the 50 point jump in BABIP. In table form, presented for your viewing enjoyment are the wOBA splits with Moustakas’ BABIP for each ball-in-play location in parenthesis.

	Pull	Center	Opposite
2011-2014	.410 (.294)	.281 (.265)	.191 (.199)
2015	.365 (.253)	.332 (.308)	.374 (.374)

While his wOBA when pulling the ball has dipped, the large increase in wOBA when going up the middle and the bonkers increase going oppo more than makes up for it. Since context is key, this season the league average non-pitcher is going the opposite way with a .325 wOBA and a .295 BABIP. For more visual learners — and a big cap tip to Texas Leaguers — the gif below shows off A. how messy multi-season spray charts look and B. many more hits to left field for Moose (click to make it all giffy-like).

 

If you’re thinking “Holy Toledo, that is a lot of oppo hits this season!” then you could be related to Bill King, and you’d also be correct. Moustakas has tallied 35 opposite field hits thus far, tied for sixth most in baseball. Comparing that to his 65 hits the other way in the four seasons spanning 2011-14, and yes, this is a big increase for Moose.

On top of hitting more frequently back up the middle and the other way, Moustakas has also trimmed his strikeout rate down to 10.6 percent, the best of his career. Unsurprisingly, not whiffing at pitches has been a contributing factor here, as Moose’s 6.3 percent swinging strike rate is also the lowest rate he’s posted. Of note: his SwStr% and K% are both on four year declines, and his contact rate is on a four year upswing.

It has been a bit of a long road of adjustments for Moustaka — including a three year period where he had an OBP below .300 — however it does seem like he’s made tangible changes. Rather than simply dismissing his improved BABIP to the luck dragons, Moose is looking like a new player. I’d like to see his 6.1 percent walk rate go up a few points, however as long as he keeps hitting the ball all over the field, I can’t complain too much. He’s still vulnerable against southpaws, but if you can stay on top of your daily lineups (or plan well in weekly leagues) then Moustakas is a solid play. In DFS settings he tends to be a cheaper option and an inexpensive player hitting second in a lineup is always welcome.