The Continued Ascent of Mike Moustakas

Perhaps more than anything, the Kansas City Royals are a lesson in maintaining patience with your prospects. It was true with Alex Gordon, who got off to a slow start in his career and now represents one of the more consistent outfielders in the game, in a variety of ways. It was probably even more true of Mike Moustakas, who as recently as 2014 spent time in the minor leagues. And yet, here we are just a couple of years later, living in a world where Mike Moustakas has become a reliable presence not just for the defending World Champions, but for prospective fantasy owners as well.

For Moustakas, 2015 featured career highs across the board. He hit 22 home runs, knocked in 84, with a slash that went .284/.348/.470/.817. His ability to hit for extra bases was reflected in his .186 ISO, which ranked eighth among big league third sackers. His 124 wRC+ also, unsurprisingly, represented a career mark and trailed only names like Josh Donaldson, Matt Carpenter, Kris Bryant, and Manny Machado in that regard. So exactly what changed for Moustakas, and how has he furthered that development into what could be another career campaign in 2016?

Well, for one, the approach has improved significantly over the past few years. As illustrated below (from Brooks, of course), his swing percentage has seen a steady decrease over the course of his career:

As such, Moustakas has seen his contact rate increase steadily, with a small jump from 2014 to 2015 (84.4% to 85.0%) before another significant step forward thus far in 2016 (87.9%). Subsequently, his swinging strike percentage has also dropped, from 7.5% in 2014 to just 5.0% to this point in 2016. His still-improving approach, perhaps, lends itself to the increase in his ability to make quality contact. He cut down on his soft contact rate by about two percent from 2014 to 2015, before making a significant drop from 21.6% in 2014 to a Soft% of just 15.5% so far.

The most notable development for Moustakas, and one that has been recounted multiple times throughout the internet landscape, is his penchant for taking the ball the other way. His Oppo% was a large contributor to his uptick in numbers across the board last year, with his 27.4% figure representing a six percent increase. That trend has continued this year, as he’s managed to drive it up to 28.6%. That ability to drive the ball the other way, especially in a sense that relates to his ability to hit for extra bases, is derived especially from that approach, where he’s been taking advantage of pitches on the outer half of the plate. Note the change from 2013 and 2014:

…to 2015 and thus far in 2016:

The ISO aspect, which is what is highlighted in these two graphics, in his swing tendencies is especially relevant because this is where his fantasy value truly comes into effect. ISO helps to illustrate that ability to hit for extra bases, which is obviously a paramount element of the fantasy world. Moustakas is currently sporting a .287 figure, which will almost certainly come down as the season wears on. Nonetheless, it does help to demonstrate his ability to hit for extra bases, which has increased seemingly exponentially throughout the past couple of years.

As for the earlier statement that Moustakas could be barreling toward another career year, the early numbers certainly paint that type of picture for him. Though early projections indicated a slight regression for him, he’s actually improved in a variety of areas. Early on, he’s hitting the absolute tar out of the ball, at a 39.3% hard hit rate, which ranks seventh among third basemen and 29th overall among qualifying players. He’s turned that higher contact rate into a decreased strikeout rate (just 9.8%, the lowest mark of his career), while also managing to slightly increase his walk rate, at 7.8% for the year.

While the RBI numbers haven’t come through the way one would expect (only 24 plate appearances with runners in scoring position), the power is still there, with seven homers to his name already this season. One would imagine that with the amount of hard contact he’s making, his BABIP (.234) should continue to rise and bring the average, which is down at .266, along with it. His batted ball tendencies aren’t all that different, in terms of the types of contact he’s making, so it’s very difficult to see either of those figures remaining down as the season wears on.

With the trends that we’ve seen from Moustakas in the past two years, it’s really difficult to imagine a scenario where he regresses into that abyss in which he found himself in 2014. This is not a situation where an outlandish BABIP, or something along those lines, is carrying a player through a career year. He’s made a concerted effort to improve his approach, and it’s paying major dividends to this point. As frustrating as the development period had to have been for Moustakas and the Royals as an organizatio, it’s hard not to be incredibly satisfied with the results. If anything, we could very well be watching him continue to grow into one of the more well-rounded third basemen in baseball, when his defense is taken into account.

What began in 2015 with an improved approach and new swing tendencies has led to a higher contact rate and ability to drive the ball to the opposite field. While those ideas may hardly make a difference to fantasy owners in a statistical sense, they mean a great deal in the grand scheme of things. These changes have allowed him to demonstrate more power and reach base at a rate consistently higher than it ever was before 2015. Not only should we be enjoying watching Mike Moustakas now, but his continued development, even at this point, is going to be fascinating to monitor into the future.