Archive for jhoulys chacin

The season numbers aren’t great but we’ve picked up some steam over the last few weeks and hopefully will finish strong. As always, if you have any suggestions or tips, please feel free to mention them in the comments section, and thank you for reading.

Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 19)

34-34 record
4.72 ERA
7.7 K/9
2.3 K/BB
1.43 WHIP
37 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):

RHP Jhoulys Chacin – 35.5% ESPN – v. SFG (83), v. LAD (109)

It’s easy to love the Giants matchup and really hard to get on board with the Dodgers one — they’re the second-best offense in the game — but Chacin has been really, really good since an up-and-down start to the season. Since posting a 5.77 ERA through the first two months of the season, he’s gone 3.00, 2.51 and 3.58 in the three months since. On the whole, what does that look like? It’s a 3.02 ERA, .667 OPS against and a K/BB ratio of 72-39 over 89.1 innings/15 starts. Those numbers over what’s basically half a season would certainly garner a higher ownership figure. He’s faced the Dodgers twice in that stretch as well, allowing just one earned run over 10 innings. Read the rest of this entry »

First, a quick thought on Jose Fernandez. A lot has already been said about the joy and enthusiasm with which he played the game and I second every last bit of it. Watching him pitch, he appeared to exist on another plane, one lacking a dimension for growth or improvement because how could that even be possible? His jump from A-ball to the majors was simultaneously remarkable and laughably uneventful. He even made Tommy John look easy.

Perhaps the adversities that Fernandez experienced in Cuba equipped him with the knowledge and perspective to make the athletic adversity felt by most seem inconsequential. I don’t know. What I do know is that Jose Fernandez put a face and vividness to the Cuban ballplayer’s experience that our sports media previously only alluded to in off-handed whispers. He shared personal experiences so heavy, their mere mention caused him to float above his peers.

I’ll miss watching him pitch. I wish I watched him more. But I’ll try not to think of what could have been because what was, was pretty damned significant.

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In Ottoneu, like any fantasy format, small sample sizes to begin the season drastically impact the standings. The team with the worst pitching in your league has probably allowed more homers than expected. While the team in last place has likely has pitched the fewest innings. It’s easy to blow off these types of starts due the unsustainable performances that aren’t likely to continue (or to front-loading innings). I thought it would be fun to take a different approach today. So let’s play a game…

The rules: Pick 5 SP, total salaries for this rotation of $30 or less based on Ottoneu average values (round up $1 dollar). No picks with an average salary over $12. Arbitrary limitations, I know.

The goal: Build a 5 man rotation assuming you can bank all points that have occurred thus far with the goal of accumulating the most Fangraphs points by seasons end. Let’s make some picks.

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I’ve stolen from the movie before. I’ll do so again…

Guarantee? If you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will. I got spare time. But for now, for your fantasy teams’ sake, for your daughter’s sake, ya might wanna think about listening to quality content from me.

If you don’t know where this reference is from, then well…just ring your call button, and Tommy will come back there and hit you over the head with a tack hammer.

I actually will play guarantee fairy here, specifically for deep leagues since there are no uber-exciting names that jump out in my below grid. So here goes…

So long as they pitch to a qualifying level of innings without getting hurt or losing velocity (not ballsy enough to leave out these contingencies), I GUARANTEE these starters won’t be any worse next year (although in the grid below I highlighted in different strengths of green/red both starters and relievers):

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I recently wrote an article about Marco Scutaro and how his real-life value is far superior to his fantasy value. The on-the-field versus on-paper value disconnect has always been interesting to me since I started seriously playing fantasy baseball. Following up on the Scutaro article, I wanted to find an example of a starting pitcher who has been exceedingly effective on the mound, yet that effectiveness has not translated to fantasy value.

My immediate reaction was to focus on Hiroki Kuroda. He’s a guy who doesn’t strikeout many batters, yet consistently generates good results. However, he’s been the 11th-best starting pitcher in ESPN leagues this year. That knocks him out of the running for this article.

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At the start of 2011, Jhoulys Chacin was actually a pretty hot commodity. While he didn’t pile up many wins in 2010, Chacin was striking out nearly 24% of batters, he had a tidy little 3.28 ERA, and even though he had an elevated walk rate, his WHIP was a respectable 1.27. In fantasy circles, he was largely seen as a bit of a risk-reward starting pitcher due to his penchant for the free pass, his high strikeout rates, and the Coors factor.

His 2011 season turned out to feature both reward and risk as his strikeouts regressed to an 18% rate, his walks remained high at 10.5%, although he maintained a decent 3.62 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He came out of the gates smoking, with an elevated strikeout rate, only to see his K/9 fall off the table in July, all the way down to 4.13 K/9 in September.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 8.

Bronson Arroyo – After a solid April, Arroyo has hit the skids here in May. He has a 4.61 ERA despite a .247 BABIP. Arroyo has managed that feat by allowing 6 HR in 27.1 IP. This week he goes on the road to Atlanta and Philadelphia. The Braves are tied for second in the National League with 47 HR and while the Phillies are not the power-hitting club they’ve been in the past, Citizens Bank Park is still a homer-friendly venue. Put Arroyo on the bench this week.

Jhoulys Chacin – Fantasy players are not completely on the Chacin bandwagon and it’s hard to understand why. He’s hurled a Quality Start in seven of his nine games this season, including the last five. He’s fourth in the league in GB% and has a strong 7.80 K/9. And if that’s not enough, he checks in with a fine 1.12 WHIP. Chacin has two home starts this week and he has a 1.80 ERA after five games in Coors Field this year. Make sure he’s in your lineup.

Jorge de la Rosa – Much like his teammate listed above, de la Rosa is having a strong season yet is not considered a must-start by the fantasy crowd. Previously, walks have been a big problem but this year de la Rosa has a solid 3.18 BB/9. Last year he was victimized by the gopher ball, but in 2011 de la Rosa has kept the ball in the park and has allowed 4 HR in 56.2 IP. With two home starts this week, where he is 3-0 with a 3.50 ERA, feel confident in putting him in your lineup.

Jeremy Hellickson – In his last five starts, Hellickson is 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.121 WHIP. He’s not striking out batters at last year’s high rate, but his 6.35 K/9 is more than acceptable when it comes along with those other numbers. It should be noted that he is outperforming his peripherals, especially his xFIP which checks in at 4.26, over a full run higher than his 3.18 ERA. Still, I like Hellickson’s chances to continue his strong pitching this week.

Jonathon Niese – A poor start to the season leaves Niese available in two-thirds of CBS Sports leagues. But in his last six starts he his 3-2 with a 3.29 ERA. Overall, Niese is using his curve ball more in 2011 and the results have been better with both his hook and fastball according to Pitch Type Values. Niese gets a bunch of ground balls (49.4%) and this year he is getting a large number of infield pop-ups (13.2%). It’s not the greatest matchups for Niese this week, with a road start in Chicago and a home game against the Phillies. Still, with his strong pitching lately, he makes a solid streaming option this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 8 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Haren, Verlander, Weaver, Kershaw, Beckett, Hamels, Nolasco, Jurrjens, Gallardo, Cain, Britton, Romero, Buchholz, Cueto, Ogando, Masterson, Lohse, Dempster, Norris, Colon, Danks, McCarthy, Ross, Vargas, Pavano, Gorzelanny, Litsch, Blanton, Duffy, Moseley, Coke, Saunders.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 6 pitchers and how they fared.

Jackson – Advised to sit. W, 5 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 7 IP. 0 ER
Latos – Advised to sit. W, 9 Ks, 3.97 ERA, 1.412 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 5 ER
Lilly – Advised to start. W, 9 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 12 IP, 6 ER
Liriano – Advised to sit. 1 K, 12.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 3 IP, 4 ER
Morrow – Advised to start. W, 14 Ks, 8.64 ERA, 1.560 WHIP, 8.1 IP, 8 ER

Jed Lowrie, Red Sox (Owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues)

Dustin Pedroia‘s laser show is postponed until 2011, and Marco Scutaro’s playing through a partially torn rotator cuff in his right shoulder. Thus, Lowrie is getting the chance to re-insert himself into Boston’s plans after scarcely playing at all over the past two seasons.

A 2005 supplemental first-round pick out of Stanford, Lowrie displayed quality secondary skills for a middle infielder in the minors (.284/.380/.445 line in 1,600+ plate appearances). Baseball America ranked the switch-hitter as the #73 prospect in the game prior to 2008, and Lowrie reached Fenway that year. He held his own in the majors, batting .258/.339/.400 in 306 PA with a 95 wRC+. Lowrie punched out often (26.2 K%), but he controlled the zone by walking 11.4% of the time and swinging at pitches thrown off the plate just 17.6% (25.4% MLB average in ’08).

Unfortunately, Lowrie suffered a left wrist injury in 2009 and had to undergo surgery that wiped out three months of his season. He took only 76 trips to the plate in the majors last year, posting a 20 wRC+ with terrible luck on balls put in play. This season, Lowrie was sidelined until late July with Mononucleosis.

Since returning to action, however, Lowrie’s bat has been a plus for the Sox. He’s got a 122 wRC+ in 128 PA, hitting .255/.359/.445. The 26-year-old has a 14.1% walk rate, hacking at 21.9% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (29.2% MLB average this season). Lowrie’s no star, but he possesses patience and a dash of pop while capably playing up the middle of the diamond. CHONE thinks Jed is a .262/.347/.400 hitter ZiPS is less of a fan, though (.242/.324/.394). I like his chances of staying closer to that CHONE forecast.

Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies (22%)

For most of his minor league career, Chacin was a moderate-K, ground ball-centric pitcher who limited walks. In the show, though, the 22-year-old Venezuelan native has taken a power approach.

In 113.1 innings pitched this season, Chacin has whiffed 117 batters. His rate of 9.29 strikeouts per nine frames ranks 10th among pitchers tossing at least 100 innings. His 10.7% swinging strike rate also ranks 10th, and his 74% overall contact rate trails just Francisco Liriano. Chacin’s breaking stuff has been devastating. According to TexasLeaguers.com, he’s throwing his low-80’s slider for a strike 70.6% (63.4% MLB average) and getting a whiff 22.5% (13.6% MLB average). The righty’s high-70’s curveball is getting strikes 61% (58% MLB average) and whiffs 14% (11.6% MLB average).

All of those whiffs have come with walks. Throwing 41.3% of his pitches within the zone (46.7% MLB average), Chacin has issued 4.05 BB/9. Even so, he’s boasting an above-average ground ball rate (46.3 GB%) and a 3.69 xFIP. Pick him up if he’s still sitting on the sidelines in your league.

Here is the latest update to Week 20 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

KAN – Zack Greinke
COL – Jhoulys Chacin
CLV – Jeanmar Gomez

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts

STL – Adam Wainwright
COL – Jeff Francis
CLV – Josh Tomlin

Last year Greinke was the toast of the baseball world and this year he sits with a 7-11 record. There are three main reasons for the differences between the two seasons. First, Greinke is striking out fewer batters this year. After posting a 9.50 K/9 a year ago, Greinke has a 7.59 rate this season. Next, his home run rate has doubled from 2009, although last year was the outlier. This season’s 0.84 HR/9 is more in line with his lifetime 0.94 rate. Finally, after posting a 79.3 LOB% in 2009, Greinke is below average with a 65.5 strand rate this season.

After three starts in Triple-A to stretch out his arm, Chacin returns to the Rockies’ rotation after spending most of July pitching out of the bullpen. With four pitches, Chacin profiles as a starting pitcher but he needs to get his walk rate under control. While he has an impressive 9.73 K/9, he has a disappointing 4.15 BB/9, which would be the fifth-worst mark in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. In seven games this year in the minors, Chacin has a 4.29 BB/9.

Gomez made headlines when he threw a perfect game for the Double-A Akron Aeros. After going 8-8 in Triple-A this year, Gomez has been a perfect 3-0 since joining Cleveland the third week of July. Gomez has a poor strikeout rate (4.63 K/9) but he gets groundballs (1.61 GB/FB), does not walk anyone (1.93 BB/9) and keeps the ball in the park (0.39 HR/9). Gomez has a 1.54 ERA but a 3.52 FIP and a 4.31 xFIP.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado Rockies (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

If you were going to create a fantasy pitcher out of scratch, you would give him a great fastball, great command and the ability to get lots of ground ball outs. Chacin may not rank as great, but he is pretty good in all three of these areas. His fastball is in the low-90s, he averaged 2.68 BB/9 in the minors and in 427 IP in his minor league career, Chacin has a 59.4 GB%. In a brief trial in the majors last year, he struggled, mostly due to command issues. But in his first start this year for Colorado, Chacin allowed 3 BB in 8 IP. He should have an extended shot in the rotation, as the Rockies have two SP (Jorge de la Rosa and Jason Hammel) on the DL. If his command holds up, Chacin could be a nice addition to any fantasy roster.

Ryan Hanigan, Cincinnati Reds (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

Right now Hanigan is living large thanks to a .433 BABIP. But if we look at his major league career, he has 446 PA with a .303 BABIP and a .277/.376/.361 slash line. He has little power and less speed, but he can deliver a solid AVG for a catcher. Also, he has started three of the last four games for the Reds. Hanigan should be owned in all NL-only leagues and should merit serious consideration from all leagues that start two catchers.

Eric Young Jr., Colorado Rockies (owned in 6% of Yahoo! leagues)

When the Rockies placed Brad Hawpe on the DL, they called up top prospect Young, despite him scuffling in Triple-A with a .600 OPS. Young is interesting because of his speed and chance to post huge SB numbers if he gets playing time, as he swiped 58 bags last year in Triple-A. And Colorado is not getting much production out of 2B Clint Barmes, who is batting just .197 while showing little of the power he displayed in 2009. Meanwhile, Young is batting .333 with 5 R and 4 SB in 7 games. Young can play both 2B and the OF and should see a lot of action in the next couple of weeks to determine if he can hit major league pitching enough to make his speed worthwhile.