Deep League Waiver Wire – Final Week Pitching Streamers

First, a quick thought on Jose Fernandez. A lot has already been said about the joy and enthusiasm with which he played the game and I second every last bit of it. Watching him pitch, he appeared to exist on another plane, one lacking a dimension for growth or improvement because how could that even be possible? His jump from A-ball to the majors was simultaneously remarkable and laughably uneventful. He even made Tommy John look easy.

Perhaps the adversities that Fernandez experienced in Cuba equipped him with the knowledge and perspective to make the athletic adversity felt by most seem inconsequential. I don’t know. What I do know is that Jose Fernandez put a face and vividness to the Cuban ballplayer’s experience that our sports media previously only alluded to in off-handed whispers. He shared personal experiences so heavy, their mere mention caused him to float above his peers.

I’ll miss watching him pitch. I wish I watched him more. But I’ll try not to think of what could have been because what was, was pretty damned significant.

 

As for my final Deep League Waiver Wire column of the season, I thought I’d look at some streaming options to take you through the end of the week. I can’t stress this enough – if you’re not in a deep league, you can do better. There are some pretty uncompelling names in the paragraphs that follow but I’m hoping they provide the last-minute pitching juice needed to propel you to the top of your standings.

Tuesday: German Marquez (1% Yahoo, 0.5% ESPN, 6% CBS) @ SF

In his first start last Wednesday, Marquez held the Cardinals to a single run and five base runners through five innings. He struck out three, walked one, and kept the ball on the ground. His fastball sat at 93, just a shade down from his relief work (granted, we’re talking about just 3 previous appearances) and in case you were wondering, Marquez did this in Colorado.

Now, I’d normally stay far away from a rookie Rockie but given the ballpark and the match-up, I’ll consider him here. In the minors, Marquez’ calling card was his control, averaging 2.00 BB/9 since the start of last season. This is important given his date with the Giants who rank 4^th in baseball in walk rate. But as a team, the Giants have been scuffling, hitting just .230/.297/.361 over the last month. I feel good about placing a bet on Marquez for some eleventh-hour ratio help.

Wednesday: Jason Vargas (0% Yahoo, 0.5% ESPN, 1% CBS) vs. Min

Having missed nearly the entire season recovering from TJS, Vargas is scheduled to make his third and final start of the season Wednesday against the Twins. In his first start, the 33 year-old lefty went three innings against White Sox. In his second start, he went four against Cleveland and now appears to be ready for 100 pitches. His velocity is in line from when he last pitched in the majors though perhaps down a tick from early 2015 when he was healthy.

Through Vargas’ first two starts, his whiff rate sits at a career high 9.8% and he also seems to be throwing his changeup more frequently, a pitch that’s served him well throughout his career. The Twins have fared just a couple ticks below league average against lefties and their 24.1% strikeout rate against southpaws ranks 4^th worst. Perhaps most notably, Minnesota’s 11.2% pop-up rate vs. lefties is the league’s 5^th worst and throughout his career, Vargas has induced pop-ups 25% more frequently than league average, setting up a nice mid-week match-up.

Thursday: Typical Thursday slate of games so options are limited. I don’t like anyone here who might qualify as a deep-league option. I suppose if you’re desperate, you could try Albert Suarez (2% Yahoo, 2.6% ESPN, 7% CBS) against the Rockies. He’s been effective at keeping the ball on the ground but there’s no strikeout upside here.

Friday:  Jhoulys Chacin (3% Yahoo, 2.4% ESPN, 4% CBS) vs. Hou

Over his last 3 starts, Chacin has allowed just 2 earned runs good for a 1.06 ERA. His FIP and xFIP over that time are more than tolerable for a deep league streaming option. I’m not sure there’s a whole lot to say about Chacin that hasn’t been said already.

This season he’s averaging about five innings per start and his velocity sits at a five-year high. Chacin is also generating grounders at an elevated rate while limiting hard contact. His soft% as a starter sits at 19.3%, the second best rate of his career. Chacin’s velocity is also trending nicely; at 90.6 mph, he’s throwing his fastball harder than he has at any point since 2011.

Astros’ hitters own the league’s fourth worst strikeout rate. With Chacin a seemingly different pitcher at The Big A than on the road (3.12 FIP at home vs. 4.84 away), I like the potential for strikeouts.

Saturday: again, not a lot of match-ups I like here and I can’t even blame a Thursday schedule. You could roll the dice on the Angels’ Daniel Wright (0% Yahoo, 0.6% ESPN, 0% CBS) but it’d be a true desperation play. He’s the owner of a career minor league 15.7% K-BB% but you wouldn’t know it judging by his first 33.2 MLB innings. I could not be less enthused by this paragraph.

Sunday: Mike Clevinger (2% Yahoo, 1.7% ESPN, 8% CBS) @ KC

I suppose special congratulations are in order if you’re still making moves on the final day of the season. I hesitate to even make a recommendation here given how frequently teams rearrange their rotations in the final week. That said, consider Mike Clevinger pitching Game 162 in Kauffman Stadium.

While Clevinger’s walks have certainly been problematic, he’s been a strong source of strikeouts. And since his return to the rotation on September 5^th, the 25 year-old has posted a 3.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 9.20 K/9. Over that time, his whiff rate sits at 11.5% up from 9% prior. And while his ground ball rate has dropped precipitously, Clevinger is generating softer contact and an elevated pop-up rate. The home runs are an issue but wouldn’t you know it, the Royals rank dead last in the AL in homers and according to ESPN, Kauffman is the 7^th most difficult stadium to go yard in. We all know the futility of chasing wins but this match-up boasts upside all around from strikeouts to ratios to yes, the possibility of a favorable decision.

 

On that note, best of luck. I’ve had a blast in my first season here at Rotographs trying to find you some diamonds in the rough. I’m hoping there’s at least one more gem in this latest Deep League dig.