Archive for Jason Hammel

Woof. I don’t know what has happened. I’ve taken a real beating over the last couple weeks, and I apologize for anyone who has taken my advice. I’ll continue to write this column in vain, but completely understand if people don’t trust me again for a long, long time. Anyway, so here goes:

Here’s how we’re doing so far this season (through half of Week 10)

17-16 record
5.10 ERA
7.6 K/9
2.1 K/BB
1.57 WHIP
17 quality starts

Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ for this season in parentheses):

RHP Jason Hammel – 8.7% ESPN – v. BOS (98), v. TOR (92)

Surely neither his team’s nor his season have been much to write home about — 5.05 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 4.40 FIP — but Hammel has been better of late, and it’s not like he hasn’t had stretches where he was really, really good recently. That includes the month of June, where over the 20.1 innings he’s thrown this month, he’s posted a 2.21 ERA with 15 strikeouts and just one walk in three starts. Of course, that includes a start against the woeful Giants last time out, but he did also make solid starts against the Indians and Astros. Back up to his last five starts — since a rough outing against the Yankees on May 16 at home — and Hammel still has a 3.52 ERA and 24-7 K/BB ratio in 30.2 innings. That’s a string of five pretty good starts, or about 15 percent of a season. We’ll give him a spin here in a couple interesting matchups.

LHP Francisco Liriano – 10.5% ESPN – @TEX (89), @KC (82)

I understand being scared to death to trust Liriano — the literal definition of a human time bomb — but these two matchups were too good for me to ignore. If you don’t like it, there are a couple names at the bottom of this post to consider otherwise. It’s not like Liriano has been all bad this season, as he’s fanning a batter per inning. If that feels like a bit of a reach for you, at least he’s been pretty good in June, too: 17 innings, 19-5 K/BB ratio and 3.71 ERA. One thing that might give you pause is that this month, opposing batters are hitting .231/.278/.462 against him. He isn’t giving up much, but when he does, it’s big. He does have a 12 percent swinging strike rate this month, though — so there’s potential for some big strikeout games this upcoming week.

RHP Robert Gsellman – 9.2% ESPN – @LAD (102), @SF (77)

It’s been a rough season, but I’ve always believed in the talent here, and hopefully it can come to roost this week. Since a rough start against th Brewers a month ago sent him to the bullpen, Gsellman has been pretty darn good. In six appearances (four starts) in the meantime, he’s posted a 2.25 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 28 innings (eight walks) and an opponents’ slash line against of .204/.268/.320. I’m especially salivating over the matchup against the Giants, but it’s not like the Dodgers have absolutely obliterated opposing pitchers this year, either. Sure, they have the ability to make life difficult, but it’s not like facing this year’s Yankees. It’s the classic give-to-get scenario either way, because again, I really like his chances against San Fran.

Last two out: Brad Peacock (@OAK, @SEA) and Scott Feldman (v. TB, v. TOR)

Yesterday, I wrote up Rich Hill’s 2016 season, declaring him The Leader of Baseball’s Movementarians. In researching the piece, I dove deep into Baseball Prospectus’ Pitchf/x leaderboards. I wanted to find out what makes Hill’s fastball so dominant, despite its unremarkable velocity, and his curveball so effective, given its unimpressive whiff rate. I’m not an expert in pitching mechanics. I can’t breakdown video or tell you much about grips. For that, talk to Eno. But I found that Hill enjoys two distinct advantages that make his (essentially) two-pitch arsenal play up.

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Jason Hammel was never an elite prospect with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, but there was a level of expectation for production that he seemed to fall short of which eventually led to his being traded to Colorado. Predictably, he didn’t flourish there (though he also wasn’t a nightmare, either) and was again traded, this time to Baltimore in 2012. To this point in his career, Hammel was a slightly below league average arm who lacked that reliable offering to thwart lefties consistently and he wasn’t anywhere near dominating righties as a way to make up for it. The move to Baltimore started to turn that tide.

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The days of highway robbery early-season trades are a thing of the past, but it’s rarely too early to kick the tires on making trades. I’ve identified a five players who make for strong trade targets — depending on league type and settings, obviously. A pair of sluggers who could be had at a discount are joined by a white-hot hitting veteran and a couple of right-handed pitchers with varying degrees of success thus far. Read the rest of this entry »

At the end of a long weekend that went by much too fast, as another absurd week of paper-pushing, traffic, and tension quickly closes in, I re-read The Stranger. In closing, Albert Camus writes, “I felt as if I understood why at the end of her life she had taken a ‘fiance,’ why she had played at beginning again. Even there, in that home where lives were fading out, evening was a kind of wistful respite. So close to death, Maman must have felt free then and ready to live it all again.”

Reading that, I was suddenly able to burst through my Sunday night anxiety. So here we are for another edition of Fantasy Baseball Existentialism. Last week, I read Joshua Ferris’ novel To Rise Again at a Decent Hour. The novel relates here because there are elements of existentialism and baseball. The main character is a Red Sox fan who is struggling to stay in love with the team after they’ve disappointed him by winning two championships, which creates nostalgia for a lifetime of the club’s familiar letdowns.

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We’re making bold predictions this week. My ten will be guys currently not being drafted as “starters” in ten-team mixed leagues that I think should and will be. In other words, I’ll be picking a guy going outside the top ten at each infield position, two guys going outside the top 50 in the outfield, and three guys going outside the top 60 starters. All ADP numbers are from ESPN.

1) Jonathan Lucroy, currently the 14th catcher being selected, will be a top ten catcher. Lucroy was well on his way to being a top ten catcher last season had he not missed two months in the middle of the year with a broken hand. Check out how he compared to other catchers with 300+ PA last year in the five roto categories on a per plate appearance basis:

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You’d think that after a shocking run to the playoffs despite having a dozen different pitchers make at least two starts — and only one make more than 20 — that the Baltimore Orioles would have done something to shore up their rotation this winter. They haven’t, so far, and while their decision is more than defensible, it doesn’t make projecting the 2013 collection any easier.

Here’s what we do know about this year’s Orioles rotation, however. We know that Joe Saunders (seven starts), Dana Eveland (two starts), and Randy Wolf (two starts) aren’t going to be part of it. We know that the top four is likely to be made up of Wei-Yin Chen, Jason Hammel, Miguel Gonzalez, & Chris Tillman, and we know with near absolute certainty that when the season ends, at least one of those four men (but likely more) will no longer be in the rotation. Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 16.

Scott Baker – After missing a start before the All-Star break with a sore elbow, Baker is in line for two starts this week at home against the Indians and Tigers the top two teams in the AL Central. But the Indians are 28-34 since starting off the season 20-8 while the Tigers have played .500 ball over their last 32 games, so neither team is hot. Baker has been outstanding at home this year, where he has a 4-1 record with a 1.97 ERA. While he’s allowed 9 HR in 65 road innings, Baker has permitted just 3 HR in 45.2 IP at home. He is a risky play due to the unknown status of his elbow, but if he is in the lineup you’ll want him in yours to take advantage of the home starts.

Mark Buehrle – A pitcher who traditionally outperforms his xFIP, 2011 is no different for Buehrle, as he has a 3.42 ERA compared to a 4.06 xFIP. After getting knocked around in four of his first five starts, Buehrle has been a reliable pitcher over his last 13 games. He has a 2.72 ERA in that span with 12 Quality Starts. Buehrle has two road starts this week and he has pitched better this year at home. But he goes up against the Royals and Indians. Kansas City is the worst team in the AL while the Indians rank 14th in OPS against LH starters. Look for Buehrle’s strong pitching to continue and keep him in your lineup.

Chris Capuano – This week Capuano has a home-and-home with the Marlins and Clay Hensley. Capuano has a 4.12 ERA this year but he’s been better than that most of the season. In his last 13 games he has a 3.59 ERA with 68 Ks in 77.1 IP. Capuano does not go deep into games but when he keeps the ball in the park he gives his team a chance to win. He’s allowed 13 HR this season and nine of those in his last 77.1 IP. However, the Marlins are 10th in the NL in HR, just under the league average. Neither Sun Life Stadium nor Citi Field is a big HR park so this appears to be a favorable week for Capuano.

Jason Hammel – Perhaps no pitcher in baseball is happier that Interleague play is over than Hammel. In four starts against the AL, Hammel allowed 17 ER in 23 IP for a 6.65 ERA. Against the NL, Hammel has a 3.59 ERA. He has favorable matchups this week with a home start against the inconsistent Derek Lowe and a road start against the very hittable Zach Duke. The Rockies are not as potent in road games as they are in Coors Field but Chase Field is also a good hitter’s park and Colorado is second in the NL with a .758 OPS versus lefty starters. Chances are he’s on the waiver wire in a mixed league and Hammel makes an excellent streaming option this week.

Jason Marquis – In his first 13 games, Marquis was 7-2 with a 3.67 ERA and a 47/23 SO/BB ratio. Since then he’s 0-2 with a 5.26 ERA with 11 BB and 13 Ks in 25.2 IP. His xFIP is still 70 points below his career average, so there’s still plenty of potential regression left for Marquis. He has two road starts this week and his ERA is 4.74 away from home, 1.48 higher than his mark at Nationals Park. If you picked him off the waiver wire, you likely got some good mileage out of Marquis already. But it’s time to quit while you’re ahead and put him on your bench this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 16 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Lee, Jimenez, A. Sanchez, Liriano, Colon, Pineda, Billingsley, Hellickson, Ogando, Burnett, Vogelsong, Stauffer, Beachy, Lohse, Lowe, Wolf, Gee, Guthrie, Porcello, Collmenter, McDonald, Carmona, Cecil, Lyles, Chatwood, Willis, Duke, Hensley, Lopez, Davies

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 14 pitchers and how they fared.

Lewis – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 4.85 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 13 IP, 7 ER
Marcum – Advised to sit. 9 Ks, 5.25 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 12 IP, 7 ER
Rodriguez – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 7.94 ERA, 1.765 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 10 ER
Stauffer – Advised to start. W, 2 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.417 WHIP, 12.0 IP, 4 ER
Zimmermann – Advised to start. W, 11 Ks, 2.92 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, 12.1 IP, 4 ER

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 21.

R.A. Dickey – It’s been a great season overall for the 35-year-old Dickey but he has been outstanding in Citi Field, where he has a 5-1 record with a 1.22 ERA. With two home starts this week, Dickey should be in everyone’s lineup.

Jason Hammel – Since July 16th, Hammel is 1-4 with a 4.89 ERA. But six of those seven starts have come on the road. In Coors Field this year, Hammel is 6-1 with a 3.36 ERA. With two home starts this week, look for Hammel to get back in the win column.

Hiroki Kuroda – The past two months, Kuroda is 1-6. Since coming to this country in 2008, Kuroda has posted lower-than-average HR/FB rates. But in his last few starts, he has allowed 3 HR in 25 IP. This week he has road starts in Milwaukee and Colorado, two of the three best HR parks in the National League. Put Kuroda on the bench this week.

Colby Lewis – In his last six starts, Lewis is 0-5 yet his ERA has dropped five points to 3.37 for the season. He gets two home starts this week, where he is 5-3 with a 2.95 ERA for the year. Look for Lewis to pick up at least one win this week and make sure he is in your lineup.

Clayton Richard – He has been piling up victories recently despite not pitching all that well. But his last four starts have all been on the road. Richard gets two home starts this week and the friendly confines of Petco should help out. Richard should be in your active roster.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 21 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Wainwright, J. Johnson, T. Hudson, Hamels, Cain, Liriano, Pavano, Floyd, Lackey, E. Santana, Myers, Morrow, Shields, Volquez, G. Gonzalez, Carmona, L. Hernandez, Kazmir, Blanton, Guthrie, Norris, Porcello, Bonderman, Fister, Harden, Moseley, Ohlendorf, Bush, Lannan, Chen, Rzepczynski, R. Lopez, Lohse, Coleman.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 19 pitchers and how they fared.

Hughes – Advised to start. W, 3.75 ERA, 3 Ks, 1.417 WHIP (2 starts)
Leake – Advised to sit. W, 8.38 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.862 WHIP (2)
Mazzaro – Advised to start. 2.77 ERA, 8 Ks, 1.308 WHIP (2)
Padilla – Advised to start. W, 11.57 ERA, 4 Ks, 1.929 WHIP (2)
Pelfrey – Advised to sit. W, 1.93 ERA, 5 Ks, 0.857 WHIP (2)

Luke Scott, Orioles (Owned in 19% of Yahoo leagues)

The Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy options, Scott has a couple of factors working against his gaining more notoriety — namely, he didn’t start getting meaningful big league playing time until he was in his late-twenties and he’s currently playing for the AL East’s resident doormat. But Scott could well provide a contending team with an upgrade at the trade deadline, and could do the same for fantasy owners willing to look past a lack of name recognition.

Scott’s got a robust .291/.357/.567 line in 277 plate appearances, good for a .396 wOBA. Despite being sidelined in early July with a strained left hamstring, the lefty slugger’s lumber has been +16 runs above average. While Scott might not keep flirting with a .400 wOBA, it’s not like his potent offensive showing is a fluke — he’s a career .268/.351/.504 hitter and holds a .364 wOBA. If you’re in need of some lightning in your lineup, you could do far worse than what Scott figures to provide for the rest of the season — .263/.342/.497 from ZiPS and .258/.332/.471 from CHONE. Give this guy a little respect.

Jason Hammel, Rockies (23%)

Liberated from the Tampa Bay Rays’ pitching factory in April of 2009, Hammel turned in a quality season as a full-time starter — in 176.2 innings pitched, he struck out 6.78 batters per nine innings, walked 2.14 per nine and compiled a 3.81 xFIP. While a right groin strain caused him to miss a few weeks earlier this year, Hammel is performing well again in 2010. The 27-year-old with sharp breaking stuff has K’d 7.5 per nine frames, issued 2.42 BB/9 and has a 3.72 xFIP in 104.1 IP.

Granted, those extra strikeouts might not stick. Hammel is actually getting fewer swinging strikes this season — 6.9%, compared to 9.5% in 2009 (8-9% MLB average). And, his 84.1% contact rate is higher than his 79.9% mark last year and the 81% MLB average. This increase in punch outs is due to more called strikes. Hammel’s getting a called strike 20% of the time in 2010, compared to 17.1% in ’09 (17% MLB average). Called strikes have a lower correlation with K’s than swinging strikes, so it’s unlikely that Hammel continues to fan so many. But even so, he’s a solid option. ZiPS projects 6.57 K/9, 2.57 BB/9 and a 3.95 FIP for the rest of the season, and CHONE has a forecast with 6.62 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 4.22 neutralized ERA.