Waiver Wire: July 25th
Luke Scott, Orioles (Owned in 19% of Yahoo leagues)
The Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy options, Scott has a couple of factors working against his gaining more notoriety — namely, he didn’t start getting meaningful big league playing time until he was in his late-twenties and he’s currently playing for the AL East’s resident doormat. But Scott could well provide a contending team with an upgrade at the trade deadline, and could do the same for fantasy owners willing to look past a lack of name recognition.
Scott’s got a robust .291/.357/.567 line in 277 plate appearances, good for a .396 wOBA. Despite being sidelined in early July with a strained left hamstring, the lefty slugger’s lumber has been +16 runs above average. While Scott might not keep flirting with a .400 wOBA, it’s not like his potent offensive showing is a fluke — he’s a career .268/.351/.504 hitter and holds a .364 wOBA. If you’re in need of some lightning in your lineup, you could do far worse than what Scott figures to provide for the rest of the season — .263/.342/.497 from ZiPS and .258/.332/.471 from CHONE. Give this guy a little respect.
Jason Hammel, Rockies (23%)
Liberated from the Tampa Bay Rays’ pitching factory in April of 2009, Hammel turned in a quality season as a full-time starter — in 176.2 innings pitched, he struck out 6.78 batters per nine innings, walked 2.14 per nine and compiled a 3.81 xFIP. While a right groin strain caused him to miss a few weeks earlier this year, Hammel is performing well again in 2010. The 27-year-old with sharp breaking stuff has K’d 7.5 per nine frames, issued 2.42 BB/9 and has a 3.72 xFIP in 104.1 IP.
Granted, those extra strikeouts might not stick. Hammel is actually getting fewer swinging strikes this season — 6.9%, compared to 9.5% in 2009 (8-9% MLB average). And, his 84.1% contact rate is higher than his 79.9% mark last year and the 81% MLB average. This increase in punch outs is due to more called strikes. Hammel’s getting a called strike 20% of the time in 2010, compared to 17.1% in ’09 (17% MLB average). Called strikes have a lower correlation with K’s than swinging strikes, so it’s unlikely that Hammel continues to fan so many. But even so, he’s a solid option. ZiPS projects 6.57 K/9, 2.57 BB/9 and a 3.95 FIP for the rest of the season, and CHONE has a forecast with 6.62 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 4.22 neutralized ERA.
A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.
jason hammel is the tits
agreed
Dude’s been money for me and my ailing pitching staff.
Laughing cause I picked up Luke Scott yesterday so I could start him today against Kevin Slowey. He’s definitely worth starting against right-handers. If you have the roster flexibility to sit him against lefties he’s even better.
He’s been hitting 4th every day since returning from the disabled list.
The nice thing about Hammel is that because of his great sinker, you can start him in Colorado against bad teams almost as confidently as you can on the road.
Pass on Hammel
hammel or kuroda rest of the season?
I like Hammel a lot but you’d be crazy to turn away from Kuroda. He’s nearly 20% SO rate, very low BBs, and a great GB/FB ratio. He did even better in July, upping his SO% to 21.3 and lowering his BB as well.
He’s been a little unlucky, but stick with him. In my opinion, he’s one of the top 15 pitchers in the league.
Thinking of dropping Jason Bay for Luke Scott. Am I crazy?
Several days late on Luke Scott.
Scott is still available in my 16 team league, but I can’t bring myself to drop Brad Hawpe for him.
Why are Jason Hammel’s splits better in Colorado? Not just this season, but for consecutive seasons now? And I’m not just talking ERA, I’m talking xFIP! Anyone?