Archive for Jason Hammel

Here is the last-minute look at the two-start pitchers for Week 13. First the starters who you may be on the fence about putting into your lineup:

Dallas Braden – Since pitching his perfect game, Braden is 0-5 with a 1.417 WHIP. In his last three starts, he has allowed 26 hits in 17.2 IP. Leave him on the bench for his two road starts.

Jason Hammel – Upon being activated from the disabled list in mid-May, Hammel is 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA. While he has not pitched well on the road this season, he does get a start in Petco to go along with his home outing against the Giants. Ride the hot hand and make sure Hammel is in the lineup.

Ted Lilly – The Cubs lefty has hurled a Quality Start in eight of his last nine outings. He also has 30 Ks in his last 35 IP, so the Ks are coming back, too. With two home starts, including one against the Pirates, Lilly needs to be in your lineup this week.

Brandon Morrow – Wherever he pitches, Morrow piles up the strikeouts, with a 9.86 K/9. But he has not been a road warrior in 2010. Morrow is 0-4 with a 7.09 ERA and a 1.848 WHIP away from Toronto. It’s tough to pass up the possibility of 15+ Ks, but that ERA and WHIP are potential staff killers. Deactivate Morrow this week if you can.

Joel Pineiro – In his last four games, Pineiro is 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA. He also is doing nice in strikeouts, with 22 Ks in 30.1 IP over that span. Activate him for his two home starts this week

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 13 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen during the week.

Jimenez, Wainwright, Carpenter, Lee, Cain, Gallardo, Strasburg, Liriano, Hughes, Haren, Hudson, Romero, Zito, Shields, Cueto, Leake, Nolasco, Buehrle, Carmona, Myers, Dickey, Billingsley, Bonderman, Takahashi, Matusz, Blanton, LeBlanc, Wells, Feldman, Correia, Kendrick, Blackburn, Parra, Westbrook, Maholm, LeRew, Norris, Karstens, Stammen.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 11 pitchers and how they fared.
Kuroda – Advised to sit. W, 1.50 ERA, 17 Ks, 1.000 WHIP (2 starts)
Marcum – Advised to sit. W, 2.25 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.250 WHIP (2)
Masterson – Advised to start. 5.54 ERA, 9 Ks, 1.385 WHIP (2)
J. Sanchez – Advised to start. W, 3.48 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.645 WHIP (2)
Wilson – Advised to start. 2.77 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.308 WHIP (2)

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Wade Davis, Tampa Bay Rays (owned in 17% of Yahoo! leagues)

Before the start of the season, Fans projected Davis to notch 11 Wins, a 3.93 ERA and 149 Ks. Last year John Lackey had 11 Wins, a 3.83 ERA and 139 Ks, and that was good enough to earn him a 5-year, $82.5 million contract and a 93% roster rate in Yahoo!

Davis got off to a rough start, as he allowed 7 H and 4 ER in 6 IP against the Yankees in his 2010 season debut. But his velocity was good, his mix of pitches was very similar to last season and his batted ball profile was right in line with his 2009 results, too. The one thing that stands out was that Davis had 4 BB and 3 Ks. Last year he had a 2.77 K/BB ratio. But it was the Yankees he was facing, a team known for its plate discipline.

The three previous years, Davis has earned a mid-season promotion each year. In 2007, he split time between Hi-A and Double-A. In 2008 it was Double-A and Triple-A while last year it was Triple-A and the majors. Davis was 16-9 with a 3.55 ERA in Double-A and 14-10 with a 3.23 ERA in Triple-A.

This is one of the top young pitchers in the game. Do not let one disappointing start against the Yankees cloud what he has done the past two years and what everyone projected him to do coming into the season. Davis remains a pitcher who should give a league average ERA with the chance to hit double-digit Wins and a K/9 rate around 7.

Jason Hammel, Colorado Rockies (owned in 4% of Yahoo! leagues)

Crowded out in Tampa Bay, Hammel was picked up by the Rockies last year in exchange for Aneury Rodriguez and turned in a 10-win season. The key for Hammel last year was that he had a sparkling 3.17 K/BB ratio, which tied with Johan Santana for the 23rd-best mark in baseball. This led to a FIP (3.71) and an xFIP (3.81) lower than his ERA (4.33), even with a below-average HR/FB rate.

Can Hammel keep his BB/9 rate near last year’s 2.14 mark? Probably not, but Hammel showed good control in the minors, with a lifetime 2.8 BB/9 in six seasons, so his command should still be an asset. Along with his command, Hammel gets a decent number of ground balls and has a 6.38 K/9 lifetime in the majors.

At the very least, Hammel is a guy to target for his road starts. Last year he had a 5.73 ERA in Coors and a 3.13 ERA on the road. He allowed 12 HR at home and only 5 on the road. His first start in 2010 came at home, where he allowed 4 ER in 7 IP for a 5.14 ERA.

Chris Snyder, Arizona Diamondbacks (owned in 3 % of Yahoo! leagues)

The mad dash should be on to acquire Snyder, who takes over for the injured Miguel Montero as the starting catcher. Snyder has some injury problems of his own, after undergoing back surgery last year. But when healthy, Snyder offers the promise of good power from the catching position. He hit 13 HR in 326 ABs in 2007 and 16 HR in 334 ABs in 2008.

Unfortunately, along with that power comes some low AVG. He has a lifetime .234 mark in the majors. And as you might imagine, Snyder offers nothing in terms of SB, as he has yet to record his first steal. But with the starting job his for at least the next month, Snyder immediately becomes an attractive option. Montero has a torn meniscus, which has a recovery time of at least four weeks. And if they find ligament damage when he undergoes surgery, he could miss the remainder of the season.

Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann will always be connected. Both came up through the Rays system, are big dudes (6’6” and 6’9”), and were in the running for the fifth starter spot in Tampa last spring. The Rays decided they’d rather have Niemann, and dealt Hammel to the Rockies during the first week of April.

Both Hammel and Niemann had solid ’09 campaigns, but who is the better pick in 2010?

Niemann went 13-6 with a 3.94 ERA, striking out 6.23 batters per nine and walking 2.94 per nine. He posted a 4.53 xFIP, .304 BABIP, and 73.7% LOB%, showing that his numbers weren’t to far off from what we’d expect. Niemann is currently the 56th pitcher being taken, and the 213th player off the board overall. He is being drafted in 96.7% of leagues.

Hammel went 10-8 with a 4.33 ERA, striking out 6.78 batters per nine, and walking 2.14 per nine. He posted a 3.81 xFIP, .337 BABIP, and 69.5% LOB%, which could translate into a better line in 2010. In 384 big league innings Hammel has a career BABIP of .331, but that should drop closer to the .300 mark as his career progresses. Hammel is the 99th pitcher off the board, and the 362nd player overall. He is being drafted in a mere 2.9% of leagues.

Why is Niemann being drafted so much higher than Hammel? For one, I would venture a guess that the old stigma behind Coors Field is catching up to Hammel. His numbers are very similar to Niemann’s, although his stuff graded out lower according to our Pitch Value data.

Hammel at 362 is an infinitely better value than Niemann at 213, and I think Hammel may move up some boards as the season draws nearer. Hammel isn’t an ace, but neither is Niemann, and one is being taken in almost every league while one is hardly being picked at all. Take advantage of the value Hammel presents in deeper and NL-only leagues, and keep an eye on him as a possible waiver wire pickup in standard leagues.

Want more fantasy analysis? Purchase the Second Opinion, FanGraphs’ 2010 Fantasy Companion for only $7.95.

Here on Wednesday in the final week of the season most leagues have already passed their deadline for waivers. But for those of you in daily transaction leagues with moves still available and innings left to play with, there are no shortage of pitchers to consider. Here are the pitchers going Tuesday owned in fewer than 50 percent of CBS Sports leagues. Matchups come from ESPN.com.

Charlie Morton (5%) – Has a road start in Chicago versus Lilly. Morton has lost three of his last four decisions and has a 5.04 ERA in that stretch. This year on the road he is 1-5 with a 7.45 ERA in 38.2 IP. Morton is 0-1 against the Cubs this year and he allowed 10 runs in 1 IP in his only start against Chicago.

Carlos Torres (2%) – Has a road start in Cleveland versus Carmona in a makeup of yesterday’s rainout. See Tuesday’s free agent column for more on Torres.

Tim Redding (4%) – Has road start in Washington versus Lannan. In his last seven starts Redding has a 3.19 ERA and a 1.157 WHIP over 42.1 IP. He is 1-3 with a 4.85 ERA in road starts this year and in two starts against the Nationals is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA.

John Lannan (36%) – Has home start versus Redding and the Mets. In his last nine starts, Lannan is 1-5 with a 5.51 ERA. He is 5-3 with a 2.62 ERA in home starts this season and is 2-2 with a 2.40 ERA in four games against New York.

Eddie Bonine (1%) – Has a home start against Pavano and the Twins. The 28-year old has appeared in nine games for Detroit this season and made three starts. His last outing he allowed two unearned runs in 6.2 IP versus the White Sox. Bonine throws a fastball, slider and change and rounds out his repertoire with an occasional knuckleball.

Robinson Tejeda (25%) – Has a road start in New York versus Chamberlain. Had been pitching brilliantly since move to the rotation until allowing 5 ER in 4.1 IP in his last start. Still, he is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA in five games as a starter. Tejeda has a great fastball, which has led to a 10.75 K/9 mark. However, he has been done in by lousy control. Tejeda has a 6.16 BB/9 ratio and he allowed seven walks in his last outing.

Brian Moehler (6%) – Has a road start in Philadelphia versus Martinez. Despite a 4.88 ERA in his last six starts, Moehler has pitched well in that span. Only a seven-run outing in less than three innings in his last start has dragged down his numbers in that span. Moehler is 5-4 with a 3.93 ERA in road games this season. He came away with a no-decision in his only outing against the Phillies this year after allowing 3 ER in 5.2 IP.

David Hernandez (5%) – Has a road start in Tampa Bay versus Shields. In his last eight games, Hernandez is 0-5 with a 7.34 ERA. This year he is 2-5 with a 5.11 ERA in road games. In his only game against the Rays, Hernandez allowed 5 ER in 3 IP and took the loss.

Justin Masterson (34%) – Has a home start against Buehrle and the White Sox after getting rained out yesterday. See Tuesday’s free agent pitchers for more on Masterson.

Jeff Karstens (1%) – Has a road start in Chicago versus Zambrano. After starting the season in the rotation, Karstens moved to the bullpen for 26 games before making a start in his last outing on 9/25. Overall, he is 2-3 with a 5.19 ERA in 11 starts. Karstens has pitched two innings versus the Cubs this season and has allowed two earned runs.

Jeff Suppan (9%) – Has a road start in Colorado versus Hammel. In his last four starts, Suppan is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA and has allowed 4 HR in 23.1 IP. He is 4-3 with a 3.56 ERA in road starts this year. This will be Suppan’s first start against the Rockies this season.

Jason Hammel (41%) – Has a home start versus Suppan and the Brewers. In his last 11 starts, Hammel is 4-2 with a 3.74 ERA with 52 Ks in 67.1 IP. Early in the year Hammel had trouble in Coors Field, but he has notched a Quality Start in three of his last four home games. Overall, Hammel is 2-3 with a 5.63 ERA in home games. He is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA this year versus Milwaukee.

Derek Holland (37%) – Has a road start in Anaheim versus Weaver. Holland snapped a five-start losing streak in his last outing, when he allowed three runs in five innings and picked up a win versus the Rays. He is 2-5 with a 4.91 ERA in road games this year. In four games against the Angels, Holland is 2-1 with a 5.12 ERA. Keep in mind that the Angels have clinched and they may not have all of their regulars in the lineup.

Clayton Richard (29%) – Has a home game versus Garland and the Dodgers. In his last five games, Richard has a 3.90 ERA and a 1-1 record. Since being acquired in a trade from the White Sox, Richard is 3-0 with a 2.48 ERA in Petco Park. He has faced the Dodgers once this year and allowed 4 ER in 4.1 IP.

Clayton Mortensen (1%) – Has a road start in Seattle versus Morrow. Acquired from the Cardinals in the Holliday deal, Mortensen has one Quality Start in five games for Oakland. He has a nice 1.93 GB/FB ratio but has been unable to get many strikeouts (3.94 K/9) and has struggled with the gopher ball, as he has allowed 5 HR in 29.2 IP.

Brandon Morrow (28%) – Has a home game versus Mortensen and the A’s. Morrow has made three starts since being recalled from the minors and is 1-0 with a 4.02 ERA. However, he has allowed 11 BB in 15.2 innings over those three outings.

Kevin Mulvey (1%) – Has a road start in San Francisco against Penny. Mulvey has appeared in five games since being acquired on waivers from Minnesota, and has made three starts. In his last outing, he notched a Quality Start, as he allowed 3 ER in 6 IP in a home loss against the Giants.

It is never too late to improve your team! Here are five players available on the waiver wire under certain thresholds, according to the numbers at CBS Sports, who could be assets for your squad for the remainder of the season.

Under 40 Percent Owned

Jason Hammel (30%) – Hammel’s overall numbers do not suggest a pitcher who is a worthwhile fantasy option. But this is the classic case of a pitcher to plug into the lineup depending on circumstances and as you might guess for a Rockies pitcher, activate him when he is on the road. This year in home starts, Hammel has 2 W, 7.02 ERA, 35 Ks and a 1.920 WHIP. Meanwhile, away from Coors Field, he has 6 W, 2.88 ERA, 52 Ks and a 1.227 WHIP.

Under 30 Percent Owned

Kyle Blanks (24%) – Power is one of the hardest things to find on the waiver wire so it is refreshing to see someone who is in the lineup virtually on a full-time basis who carries a .247 ISO. Since the All-Star break, Blanks has a .284/.392/.608 slash line in 120 PA. He has 9 HR, 17 RBI and 20 R in 35 games (28 starts) in the second half.

Under 20 Percent Owned

Lastings Milledge (19%) – In a very small sample of 83 PA, Milledge has been decent since returning to the majors with the Pirates. And those numbers would be better if they did not include a 1-for-15 trip to the Windy City. Milledge can hit a few HR and notch a few SB down the stretch and not kill you in AVG. He is an everyday outfielder on the waiver wire with some upside.

Under 10 Percent Owned

Luis Valbuena (3 %) – In the second half of the season, Valbuena has a .298/.365/.521 line in 104 PA. He has 13 RBIs and 17 R in that span, which covers 27 games (25 starts). Currently, Valbuena is riding a 7-game hitting streak and he has 3 HR in that stretch. The 23-year old hails from Venezuela and was acquired by the Indians from the Mariners in the three-team trade this past winter. In the deal Cleveland also picked up Joe Smith from the Mets and dealt away Franklin Gutierrez.

Is This Guy Really on the Waiver Wire?

Rajai Davis (47%) – He has very little power but Davis is a big-time SB threat who hits for a good AVG. Since settling in as the A’s starting center fielder, Davis has a .344 AVG with 16 RBIs, 17 R and 14 SB in his last 25 games. For the year he has a .344 BABIP but he also has a 21.1 percent LD rate. The Dutton/Carty xBABIP Quick Calculator gives him an xBABIP of .319 for the season.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 7.

Ricky Nolasco – Yes, when you drafted Nolasco you thought he’d be one of your top pitchers when he was healthy. But instead he’s been horrible. Maybe Nolasco is hiding an injury or maybe his teammates are tipping all of his pitches. Either way, you do not want him in your lineup for two lousy starts. The fear is that the moment you take him out is when he rights the ship but is that upside worth the damage he could do to your staff? Nolasco leads the NL in hits allowed (58) and ER (36).

Scott Baker – So far in 2009, Baker has a 2.14 HR/9 mark. This week he goes on the road to face the White Sox against their top pitcher, Mark Buehrle. And his second start he faces the Brewers, who are tied for the lead in the NL with 45 HRs.

Shairon Martis – Yes, he’s 5-0 but his peripherals are underwhelming. And LHB have really feasted on Martis this year. Lefties have a .319/.394/.473 mark in 104 PA versus the rookie from Curacao. The Pirates lineup features five lefty hitters while the Orioles as a team are batting .288/.362/.474 versus RHP.

Brandon McCarthy – The Texas pitcher is 3-1 and has two road starts this week. Ordinarily that would be a good thing, but McCarthy actually has pitched better at home so far this season. Still, his pitching matchups are Dontrelle Willis and Mike Hampton. The Rangers are third in the league in runs scored, they have a .292 AVG versus LHP and should be able to give McCarthy good run support versus pitchers who are several years removed from their last good season.

Jason Hammel – Yes, the ERA looks really bad but Hammel has been killed at Coors Field, where he has allowed 12 ER in 10 IP. This week he has two road starts, where Hammel has yet to give up a run in 10 innings. Plus, he gets to face Jo-Jo Reyes and Willis in his two starts. This is a good guy to pick up off the waiver wire for this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 7 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Sabathia, Haren, J. Johnson, F. Hernandez, Hamels, Shields, Lilly, Lee Buehrle, Jurrjens, Pettitte, Wolf, Young, Wakefield, E. Santana, Washburn, Richmond, Zito, Bannister, Pineiro, Perkins, Ohlendorf, Marquis, Palmer, Tallet, Looper, Willis, Hampton, Owings, Niemann, Augenstein, Bergesen, Outman, Gallagher, Karstens, Redding, Reyes, Richard.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 5 and how they did.

Beckett – Advised to sit. W, 10 K, 4.50 ERA, 1.67 WHIP (2 starts)
Volstad – Advised to sit. 6 K, 3.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (2)
Buehrle – Advised to start. W, 5 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.38 WHIP (1)
Maholm – Advised to start. 9 K, 6.57 ERA, 1.46 WHIP (2)
Paulino – Advised to start but sent to bullpen.

Being a second-tier young arm in the Tampa Bay Rays organization is a sure-fire path to anonymity. Everywhere you look, there’s a potential all-star taking the bump. There’s the Shields/Kazmir/Garza three-headed monster at the big league level (with everyone’s favorite southpaw, David Price, waiting in the wings).

In the upper minors, there’s Wade Davis and his low-90’s/hammer curve mix, the rehabbing Jacob McGee and the impressive track record (if ordinary stuff) of Mitch Talbot. And don’t look now, but there’s another wave of absurdly gifted hurlers in the offing, led by Jeremy Hellickson, Nick Barnese, Matt Moore and Kyle Lobstein.

As such, it’s very easy for good-not-great pitchers to get lost in the shuffle (see Sonnanstine, Andy). Two guys with little fanfare who might get the chance to crack Tampa’s rotation out of spring training are righties Jeffrey Niemann and Jason Hammel.

If it feels as though Niemann has been kicking around prospect charts for half a decade, well, that’s because he has. The 6-9, 280 pound behemoth was supposed to become one of those untouchable building blocks of a contending Rays club when he was selected 4th overall in the 2004 draft, but he has compiled all of 16 frames in the bigs to this point. The $5.2 million man, signed to a major league contract, is now optionless to boot.

Niemann has dealt with shoulder maladies (including surgery during the ’05 offseason), but he’s never had much problem fooling batters with a low-to-mid 90’s heater and an occasionally plus slider. The former Owl has punched out over a hitter per inning in the minors (9.12 K/9). His control is just so-so, with 3.4 BB/9, and he once again battled a shoulder injury last April after a brief stint in Tampa.

Durability is an issue moving forward- the 26 year-old has never cracked the 150-inning mark in a season, and his stabbing arm action makes more than a few people nervous. Baseball America also notes that he “requires more time than most pitchers to get loose”, so the ‘pen might not be some panacea for his shoulder woes. Despite his warts, Niemann would rank as one of the better pitching prospects in some organizations.

Hammel is not a prospect anymore, but the 2002 10th-round pick has yet to really define a role on the club, pinballing back and forth between starting and relieving over the past three seasons. Hammel hasn’t exactly lit it up in either spot, with FIP’s of 5.26, 5.05 and 5.25 from 2006 to 2008.

His deep repertoire (low-90’s fastball, hard mid-80’s slider, mid-70’s curve and mid-80’s changeup) worked wonders at AAA (8.3 K/9, 3.16 BB/9 in 259 IP), but his lack out of an out-pitch harms him at the highest level. The big boys haven’t fished at Hammel’s off-speed stuff as much (6.08 K/9, 22.3 O-Swing%), and he does not have the razor-sharp control (4.17 BB/9) or groundball tendencies (43.8 GB%) to stick his head out above a sea of other pitching talent.

That’s not to say Hammel can’t be useful in the back end of a rotation- he’s just in the wrong organization. There’s little distinguishing a guy like Hammel from, say, Pittsburgh’s Jeff Karstens, save for opportunity. It’s just that Hammel must wage war with Price to secure a spot, while Karstens takes on the Virgil Vasquez’s of the world.