Archive for J.A. Happ

A little more than a year ago, Alex Chamberlain and I looked into what type of impact a slew of Statcast measures had on a pitcher’s overall BABIP rate. Hard-hit rate and exit velocity on ground balls (EV GB) had the strongest correlations, but it seemed unlikely that the latter would have much to say about which pitchers would be best at limiting hits on flyballs in play. In general, it seems that BABIP could be influenced by different factors depending on the type of batted ball.

So let’s test that out. This column is the first in a series of four where I will be looking at the impact of various measures on flyball BABIP and ground ball Avg, both for pitchers and hitters. I’m kicking this off with an analysis of flyball BABIP for pitchers.
Read the rest of this entry »

If there was any mystery about J.A. Happ’s status with the Yankees, it got resolved on Thursday, when general manager Brian Cashman announced that the 37-year-old would begin the 2020 season as the team’s fifth starter, as reported by the YES Network. The lefty has elicited a yawn in early NFBC drafts, as his 474 ADP has him well outside the top 150 pitchers. Maybe the previous lack of clarity around his role has played some role in the low level of interest, but given the dropoff in his productivity from 2018, this news probably won’t move the needle much on Happ’s ADP. That means, at best, that Happ won’t be viewed as anything more than a reserve round pick in 15-team mixed leagues.

It was a mere two seasons ago that Happ was a top 20 starter in terms of Roto value (and a top 25 pitcher overall), sporting a 17-6 record, 3.65 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 193 strikeouts in 177.2 innings. It was Happ’s fourth straight season with an ERA in the 3.00s. That performance is being heavily discounted as we head into the 2020 season, largely due to Happ’s ERA soaring to 4.91 in 2019. The fact that he is now in his late-30s amplifies last season’s slide. Also, while Cashman has ensured us of Happ’s place in the starting rotation for the start of the season, he would seem to be at risk of losing it once Domingo Germán has completed serving his 81-game suspension for his violation of Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy in early June. He could also face competition from Jordan Montgomery, Jonathan Loaisiga and prospect Deivi Garcia, among others.
Read the rest of this entry »

After the first twenty-five starters are off the board, it gets a bit dicey. As we’re seeing in the PL Experts Mock, starters went quickly in the first six rounds (23 gone in the first 72 picks!), but just twelve were plucked in the following five rounds. The cliff hits suddenly and owners are taking their time to pick up their fourth and fifth starters.

But when the time comes, who should they target? Here are five names to consider during the middle rounds of your drafts.

J.A. Happ (Free Agent) – At 35-years-old, Happ continued to produce, registering his fourth straight season under a 3.70 ERA while boasting career bests in WHIP (1.13), strikeout rate (26.3%), and over swinging-strike rate (10.4%). His new affinity for the K began when he elevated four-seamers consistently and even a transition to the Yankee squad didn’t hold back the punchouts. The major pushback from owners is his elevated Hr/9, which rose to a 1.37 mark along with his career-high 13.4% HR/FB rate.

There’s a case to be made that all but the worst landing spots will help keep the longballs down while I expect his strikeouts to stay elevated near the 23-25% mark given his strong high heat approach. Mix in his ability to produce solid H/9 and walk rates and Happ transforms into a prime option for owners to pad their rotation.

Read the rest of this entry »

I started the Two Good Starts, Two Bad Starts column a few weeks back when I realized that I often begin to change my perception of a pitcher after a pair of consecutive starts that defy my expectations. It’s rarely a good idea to change your decision rule about starting or sitting a pitcher on the basis of two starts, but at least you can be more open to the possibility that the pitcher in question maybe isn’t as good or as bad as you thought.

In last week’s column, I raised the possibility that Wei-Yin Chen might be viable at some point in some deeper mixed leagues by drawing attention to a couple of good starts that were backed up by a rising whiff rate and increased fastball velocity. In his subsequent outing against the Nationals, his velocity remained higher than it had been, but he got just three swings-and-misses on his way to a seven-run shellacking over 4.1 innings. I’m still intrigued by Chen’s resurgence in velocity, but I’m glad I haven’t dedicated a roster spot to him yet.
Read the rest of this entry »

The first few weeks of the season often produce entertaining statistical extremes. Wild ERAs, over-the-top “on pace” numbers, and inflated ratios that give us a sensible chuckle as we collectively understand the lack of truth they hold.

Often among these novelties are the early league-wide leaderboards. I elected to pull up the 2018 strikeout leaders and here is what you’ll see:
Read the rest of this entry »

Today inaugurates what will likely several weeks of depth chart discussions. RotoGraphs staff will discuss and assess noteworthy battles for playing time and/or starting gigs for position players and, separately, pitchers. Here, specifically, this author will investigate the Toronto Blue Jays‘ rotation and bullpen situations.

The Rotation

Frankly, it seems clear-cut at the top. Marcus Stroman isn’t an ace, contemporarily speaking, but his blend of sharp command and ground ball tendencies make him an attractive mid-rotation option. R.A. Dickey, the former National League Cy Young Award winner, hasn’t generated much in the way of fantasy value in standard leagues but, nonetheless, slots in as the team’s #2.

I wouldn’t say it gets dicier from there, but: it gets dicier from there.

Marco Estrada is, presumably, the Blue Jays’ #3. And while a two-year, $26 million contract would certainly warrant it, keep in mind that Estrada hasn’t stuck in the rotation for a full season — ever. Well, except in 2013, he did, but he only started 21 games. Why has he bounced back and forth, you ask?

You didn’t ask, because you already know. The answer screams in your face: Estrada has allowed 92 home runs in 99 starts. His 1.42 HR/9 as a starter is the second-highest among those who have thrown at least 550 innings since 2011. If the Blue Jays want to let their opponents to go punch for punch with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, they found their man.

Problem is, the solutions aren’t significantly better. J.A. Happ comes off his best season, during which he scraped together one-third of his career WAR (wins above replacement) in about one-sixth of his career playing time. Fractions, man. Anyway, he shaved off a big chunk of the walk rate (BB%) that made him largely ineffective for the majority of his rather long and decidedly lackluster career, and it propped him up.

Read the rest of this entry »

I’m in a big money league that has no innings cap or start limit, which makes the race for the strikeouts and wins categories a feverish one. Finding a league average starter on the waiver wire is no small task given the lower-than-normal replacement level in this particular league. Last week I considered Chase Anderson’s viability but was outbid for him by a FAAB-hoarder. This week I want to find out if J.A. Happ (2% owned) is worth adding. Read the rest of this entry »

Today’s Roto Riteup is full of fun and adventure. Just kidding, it’s full of baseball, you silly goose!

• Interleague play starts up again today, so you’ll have to be extra careful when setting your lineups to assure certain American League players will be seeing the field.

Read the rest of this entry »

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 22.

Jorge de la Rosa – Last time out against the Braves, de la Rosa allowed just 1 BB in 7 IP. He’s allowed 11 BB in 30.2 IP in his 5 W and 16 BB in 23.1 IP in his 4 L. The key to de la Rosa is his control. This year he has allowed 20 BB in 26.2 road innings and he has road starts this week against the Giants and Padres. So, while de la Rosa has pitched well recently, the matchups do not favor him, especially as the Padres have the fourth-highest walk total in the National League. So, put him on the bench if you can.

Brian Duensing – After starting the season in the bullpen, Duensing moved into the rotation the third week of July. In seven starts this year, Duensing is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA. Additionally, he has allowed just 8 BB in 47.1 IP. With two home starts this week, get Duensing into your lineup.

J.A. Happ – Since arriving in Houston, Happ has posted a 3-2 record with a strong 7.96 K/9. But that strikeout rate is over a full K higher than his career average. Happ has also been lucky with his HR rate, which is 4.7 percent for the season and 4.9 with the Astros. It adds up to an xFIP of 4.90 for Happ. With starts against the Cardinals and in Arizona, give Happ a seat on the bench this week.

Randy Wolf – In his first 21 games, Wolf was 7-9 with a 5.20 ERA. But since then he’s gone 3-1 with a 3.23 ERA in 39 IP. In that span, he has 29 Ks and 10 BB and only 2 HR allowed. That ability to limit the long ball will be tested this week with road games against the Reds and Phillies. If Wolf can keep the ball in the park, look for him to come away with a win this week.

Carlos Zambrano – It has been a roller coaster ride for Zambrano this season but he has been pitching well since moving back into the rotation August 9th. In four starts he is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA. Zambrano had trouble with his control (15 BB in 24 IP) but in his last outing allowed just 1 BB in 8 IP. With home starts against the Pirates and Mets, make sure Zambrano is active.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 22 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, F. Hernandez, Carpenter, E. Santana, Hughes, Wilson, Cahill, Beckett, Jurrjens, Kuroda, Buehrle, J. Sanchez, Niese, Minor, Cecil, LeBlanc, Saunders, Davis, Matusz, Mazzaro, Bailey, Kendrick, Masterson, Galarraga, Moseley, Maholm, Talbot, Sanabia, Davies, Marquis, Pauley, Misch.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 20 pitchers and how they fared.

Arroyo – Advised to start. 2 W, 2.51 ERA, 11 Ks, 1.047 WHIP (2 starts)
Braden – Advised to start. W, 2.77 ERA, 8 Ks, 0.846 WHIP (2)
Niese – Advised to start. W, 1.50 ERA, 10 Ks, 1.083 WHIP (2)
W. Rodriguez – Advised to start. 2.08 ERA, 16 Ks, 1.154 WHIP (2)
Zito – Advised to sit. 9.35 ERA, 3 Ks, 2.077 WHIP (2)

Here is the latest update to Week 26 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

LAA – Kazmir
PHI – Happ
SFG – Sanchez
ATL – Hudson
WAS – Martin
HOU – Lopez

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

CHC – Wells
HOU – Norris
PHI – Moyer
FLA – VandenHurk
HOU – Bazardo

Kazmir has a 2.01 ERA in five games with the Angels but just a 1-2 record to show for it. In his last start against the Yankees, Kazmir averaged 93.77 with his four-seam fastball and hit 95.8 in a game in which he notched a Quality Start but came away with a loss. What has not changed since his move to Anaheim is his fly ball tendencies. In those five starts, Kazmir has 23 ground balls compared to 70 fly balls.

Happ sits atop the FanGraphs leaderboard with an 86 percent LOB%. He also comes in first place with a minus 1.49 in ERA-FIP. And his .261 BABIP places third. Even his homer rate is a bit fortunate with a 9.0 percent HR/FB mark.

Sanchez has 91 Ks in 73.2 IP since his no-hitter earlier this year but has a 3.79 ERA and a 4-4 record in 13 starts in that span. He has allowed 37 walks in that stretch and also nine HR. Sanchez faces Arizona and San Diego this week, two of the four teams he has an ERA under four against this season.

Hudson has a 4.13 GB/FB ratio in five starts since being activated from the disabled list. Joel Pineiro leads all qualified pitchers with a 2.67 GB/FB mark. And unlike Pineiro, Hudson has maintained his strikeout rate with the extreme ground ball tendency this season. He has a 5.34 K/9 compared to a 5.39 K/p in 2008.

Martin is 4-2 with a 3.78 ERA in six road starts this season. This week he gets the Mets at home and the Braves on the road. The rookie is 1-1 versus New York in two starts but has yet to face Atlanta.

Lopez is slated to make his first start in the majors after six relief appearances for Houston this season. At Double-A this season, Lopez appeared in 29 games, made 15 starts, and had a 4-5 record with a 4.73 ERA. The 26-year old is a fastball/slider pitcher and was acquired on waivers by the Astros early this season after being released by San Diego.