5 Middle Round Starting Pitchers To Consider

After the first twenty-five starters are off the board, it gets a bit dicey. As we’re seeing in the PL Experts Mock, starters went quickly in the first six rounds (23 gone in the first 72 picks!), but just twelve were plucked in the following five rounds. The cliff hits suddenly and owners are taking their time to pick up their fourth and fifth starters.

But when the time comes, who should they target? Here are five names to consider during the middle rounds of your drafts.

J.A. Happ (Free Agent) – At 35-years-old, Happ continued to produce, registering his fourth straight season under a 3.70 ERA while boasting career bests in WHIP (1.13), strikeout rate (26.3%), and over swinging-strike rate (10.4%). His new affinity for the K began when he elevated four-seamers consistently and even a transition to the Yankee squad didn’t hold back the punchouts. The major pushback from owners is his elevated Hr/9, which rose to a 1.37 mark along with his career-high 13.4% HR/FB rate.

There’s a case to be made that all but the worst landing spots will help keep the longballs down while I expect his strikeouts to stay elevated near the 23-25% mark given his strong high heat approach. Mix in his ability to produce solid H/9 and walk rates and Happ transforms into a prime option for owners to pad their rotation.

Kyle Hendricks (Chicago Cubs) – I haven’t been a fan of Hendricks over the years. Since his miraculous 2.13 ERA in 2016, his price in drafts has hovered the #25-30th starter off the board and it consistently felt too expensive to pull the trigger. The problem lies in a fastball near 87mph, creating a small margin of error for Hendricks to consistently churn outs and keep his ratios down. However, after a tumultuous 2018 that saw Hendricks struggle out of the gate – 4.21 ERA and a mediocre 18% strikeout rate through his first 16 starts – the time looks right to confidently select the Dartmouth graduate.

Following the early disappointment, Hendricks dramatically improved his fastball command across the final three months, returning an impressive 2.72 ERA and a solid 21% strikeout rate, making me believe he dealt with a rough patch, not a steady decline. It’s reasonable to expect more of the same from Hendricks in 2019, and while a full season of sub 3.00 ERA is most likely not in the cards, he provides rare stability in the middle rounds.

Tyler Skaggs (Los Angeles Angels) – Looking at Skaggs’ 4.02 ERA and calling it a day wouldn’t do him justice. The southpaw held a remarkable 2.62 ERA through his first 19 starts before a groin injury reduced him to just five starts after July 25th. Those five starts were as atrocious as they come: 14.05 ERA and 2.35 WHIP. It was terrible, horrible, and forgivable for a pitcher clearly needing more time before returning to the mound.

You may recall that I wrote about Skagg’s success in the first half as it happened, suggesting that it was more smoke and mirrors than sustainable production. I still have my questions if his stellar four months are repeatable, though I can see his elevated heater and improved changeup/curveball mix returning to help teams as a #4 SP through the season. As long as the price sticks past the 40th starter off the board, you should be making Skaggs a target.

Kyle Freeland (Colorado Rockies) – The peripherals of Freeland do not inspire confidence. A 4.35 SIERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9% swinging strike rate, and 8% walk rate all paint mediocrity, while his low 8.5% HR/FB pitching half his games in Coors paired with an 83% LOB rate do little to hold back the calls for his 2.85 ERA to decline drastically. However, there are reasons to believe that Freeland can stave off the peripherals for another excellent season on the hill.

Freeland bumped his strikeout rate to an impressive 24% mark in his final ten starts, boosting his swinging strike rate to 10.5% on the back of an improved cutter. In addition – and I understand how hard it is to buy into this – I trust his command. Freeland works in-and-out effectively with his heater while keeping batters constantly guessing as he weaves cutters and changeups along the edges. In other words, he does Jon Lester better than Jon Lester. With the same blueprint as the Chicago lefty but with a few more ticks on the heater, I can buy into Freeland providing quality innings through 2019 as skeptical owners look elsewhere.

Alex Reyes (St. Louis Cardinals) – Take a moment to recall the day before Reyes pitched his sole game of 2018. His price was through the roof and rightly so – a repertoire consisting of an upper 90s heater, improved slider, massive curveball, and a solid changeup all point to his ace-level prophecy coming true. That ceiling is still very much present as Reyes is expected to be 100% for the start of the season recovering from a torn lat tendon. The biggest cause for his lowered stock is the crowded St. Louis Cardinals rotation.

Carlos Martinez, Miles Mikolas, and Jack Flaherty have locked spots with Michael Wacha, Luke Weaver, and Adam Wainwright fighting with Reyes for a slot in the staff. Nevertheless, I’d put my money that Reyes earns a secure spot in the rotation in April if not out of Spring Training. Maybe the Cardinals open it into a six-man rotation, maybe an arm or two gets the injury bug, or maybe Reyes is simply too dominant in March to hold back. Plenty can go Reyes’ way and I’d take that gamble over other options at the same price that don’t come close to Reyes’ ceiling.