Archive for J.A. Happ

The Philadelphia Phillies’ rotation has been something of a mess in 2009. The defending champs paid Adam Eaton to go far, far away during the spring. Then, projected #2 Brett Myers went down with a hip injury. Cole Hamels missed time with an elbow ailment. Jamie Moyer looked more like a pinata than a pitcher in the early going, though he has since settled down. The Phillies resorted to giving starts to the likes of Chan Ho Park, Antonio Bastardo and Rodrigo Lopez.

With all of those unpleasant developments, the emergence of lefty J.A. Happ couldn’t have come at a more opportune time. In 65.1 innings (10 starts) in the rotation, the 26 year-old Northwestern product has compiled a 3.03 ERA and a perfect 4-0 record. Should we expect Happ to keep the happy times rolling, or is he due for a fall?

J.A.’s peripherals suggest that he’s been more adequate than awesome. With 6.06 K/9, 3.17 BB/9 and a 1.38 HR/9 in the rotation, Happ has a pedestrian 4.85 Fielding Independent ERA. The homer rate looks bloated, but it’s hard to say that the figure should dip much in the coming months. Happ is an extreme flyball pitcher (career 33.6 GB% in the majors) in a ballpark that has inflated home run production by a healthy margin. His home run/flyball rate in the rotation (11.2%) is right around the league average.
Happ has benefitted from plenty of fortunate bounces on balls put in play (.247 BABIP), while stranding an inordinate 88.1% of base runners while in the rotation.

While in the minors, J.A. K’d plenty of hitters with his plus changeup (9.3 K/9 during his minor league career, including 10.1 per nine with AAA Lehigh Valley in 2008). However, Happ also likes to work high in the zone with a fastball that sits roughly 88-91 MPH. Take a look at his Pitch F/X data: his fastball is straight as an arrow (1.8 inches of tailing action in on lefties), with 12.2 inches of vertical break. That above-the-belt approach didn’t cause that much damage in the minor leagues (0.7 HR/9), but Happ has surrendered 1.25 HR/9 during the course of his big league career. J.A. also doesn’t necessarily fit the “finesse lefty” profile, either, as he issued 3.5 BB/9 in the minors (3.52 BB/9 in the majors).

The purpose of this post certainly isn’t to knock Happ; he’s a perfectly useful fourth or fifth starter, and clearly a better alternative to the Kyle Kendrick’s and Park’s of the world. But, it’s probably a good idea not to get too enamored by his fast start as a starter. Heading into the 2009 season, Baseball America said the following about Happ (dubbed the 9th-best prospect in the system): “Happ lacks a standout pitch and doesn’t figure to get all those strikeouts on fastballs as easily in the majors as he did in Triple A…He projects as a fourth starter in the long term.”

That assessment still seems accurate to me. Happ can post a league-average K rate, while handing out a few too many free passes and homers to be more than a good back-of-the-rotation option. ZiPS forecasts a 4.93 FIP for Happ for the rest of the 2009 season. There’s nothing wrong with playing Happ in deeper leagues. Just don’t be totally surprised if some of those bloops evade gloves and the Houdini act with runners on base comes to an end.

The All-Star break is a great time to talk trade with other members of your league. You have a couple of days where the stats do not change and everyone is focused in on just one game. Take advantage of this time and consider the following players in your trade talks.

Obtain

Pat Burrell – One of the more consistent HR threats the past four years, Burrell has just four HR this season. And while his BABIP is a normal .292 his AVG checks in at just .238, his lowest since 2003. Burrell has been slowed by a neck strain this season, which explains some of his poor numbers. But despite a career 16.2 percent HR/FB mark, Burrell’s numbers this year in the category sits at 5.7 percent, a figure unlikely to remain that low going forward. He may not do much better in AVG the rest of the year, but he should provide plenty of HR in the second half.

Roy Oswalt – Five wins at the All-Star break was not what owners were expecting when they made Oswalt a fifth-round pick this year. And now he shows up with the red injury symbol next to his name. But the bruised fingers are not expected to keep Oswalt out of action and he has a lifetime .770 winning percentage in the second half of the season, along with a 2.89 ERA.

Howie Kendrick – He has yet to play 100 games in the majors in any season but the one thing Kendrick can do is hit. In his three previous seasons with the Angels, he has posted BABIPs of .329, .382 and .362 in what adds up to 945 at-bats. This year he has a .279 BABIP. Kendrick is hitting just .239 right now but it would not be a surprise if he hit .300 for the remainder of the season. RoS ZiPS has him hitting .294 over 201 at-bats.

Tim Stauffer – The fourth pick of the 2003 draft, Stauffer had his development stunted by a torn labrum that required surgery and caused him to miss the entire 2008 season. But Stauffer pitched very well in 12 games at Double-A and four starts in Triple-A this year. He made his 2009 major league debut right before the break and struck out seven in seven innings versus the Giants. Stauffer is someone that fantasy owners should pick up and see if he can keep it going. Getting to pitch half his games in Petco Park will certainly help.

Gerardo Parra – The National League Rookie of the Month in May, Parra has carved out a full-time role, alternating between left and center field. With former Diamondbacks Director of Player Development A.J. Hinch taking over as the team’s manager, Parra has been given the opportunity to develop at the major league level. In 52 games, Parra has a .284 AVG and 30 runs scored. He is even more valuable in leagues with daily transactions, as he has an .855 OPS versus RHP.

Exchange

Evan Longoria – In the first 30 games of the season, Longoria was one of the top three fantasy players in the game. He posted a .367-11-44-27-2 line. In the ensuing 54 games, his line reads: 234-6-22-21-0, which places him significantly lower than top three. Unfortunately, a finger injury is keeping Longoria out of the All-Star game, but it does not figure to be a long-term issue. The public loves Longoria and if someone is willing to trade first-round talent for him, it is time to pull the trigger. This is by no means a dump candidate but someone who you try to maximize his name value.

Tommy Hanson – He seemingly has the world on a string with a 4-0 record and a 2.85 ERA. But a quick look at his peripherals shows a player who has really been the beneficiary of some good fortune. Hanson sports a .236 BABIP, an 85.4 percent strand rate and a 1.10 HR/9 despite allowing a 46 percent fly ball percentage. It all adds up to a 5.04 FIP. A key indicator for Hanson will be his K/BB ratio in the second half. In Triple-A this year he had a 5.29 mark while so far in the majors it checks in at only 1.25.

Jeff Francoeur – Atlanta’s golden boy now finds himself in the media capital of the world. Francoeur’s career with the Mets is off to a great start with back-to-back two-hit games. But Francoeur is simply not a good fantasy player. The only times he was useful in AVG was when his BABIP was over .340; it now sits at .287 for the year. The swing that produced 29 HR in 2006 appears gone, as his dismal .102 ISO indicates. And the 105-RBI season came thanks to a season when he came to the plate 319 times with runners on base, including 257 times with runners in scoring position.

J.A. Happ – Like Hanson, Happ has great fantasy numbers with questionable peripherals. He sports a 6-0 record with a 2.90 ERA. But his BABIP is .242 and he has an 85.9 percent strand rate. Happ struggled with his slider last year and has ditched that for more fastballs and cutters. It is a shift that has worked very well so far but it is not likely to remain so rosy the rest of the season.

Franklin Gutierrez – When the Mariners acquired him from Cleveland in the off-season, everyone raved about what a fine defensive outfielder Seattle was getting. And he has been just as good as advertised in the field. But it is at the plate where Gutierrez has really turned heads. He has 10 HR at the All-Star break after hitting just eight last year and his AVG is 47 points higher than a year ago. A .348 BABIP helps explain the average while his HR/FB rate is over twice where it was a season ago.

Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 10.

Brett Anderson – He has won three of his last four starts. The rookie is coming off his best outing of the season, when he threw seven shutout innings against the White Sox in Chicago. A poor strand rate of 60.6 percent has helped keep Anderson’s overall numbers down this year. He is owned in only 1.1 percent of ESPN leagues and is a good candidate to add for this week and his two starts.

Scott Feldman – After making three appearances out of the bullpen to start the season, Feldman moved into the starting rotation and is 5-0 since then with five consecutive Quality Starts. He has been lucky with his BABIP (.241) and strand rate (74.7) but I like his chances to keep it up at home versus a struggling Toronto team with just three wins in their last 15 games and in an Interleague game against the Dodgers.

J.A. Happ – After replacing Chan Ho Park in the rotation, Happ ripped off three straight wins, raising his record to 4-0 on the year. But Happ has been even more fortunate than Feldman, with a .210 BABIP and an 82 percent strand rate. And with tough matchups versus Johan Santana and Josh Beckett this week, so it might be a good week to sit the lefty.

Andy Pettitte – The overall numbers look okay but after beginning the season with three Quality Starts, Pettitte has posted a 5.13 ERA and a 1.817 WHIP in his last eight games. Additionally, Pettitte has allowed seven of his eight home runs this year in Yankee Stadium and has two home games this week, one of them against the Rays, who are third in the AL in homers. Give Pettitte the week off.

Jason Vargas – There’s an old saying that goes it’s better to be lucky than good. Vargas has definitely been lucky this year with a 96.8 percent strand rate. With two road starts this week – a cross country trek to Baltimore followed by a trip to Colorado – my guess is this is the week the luck runs out.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 10 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Santana, Carpenter, Beckett, Shields, J. Johnson, Je. Weaver, Lowe, Peavy, Lee, Lilly, Buehrle, Cueto, Duke, R. Johnson, Baker, Outman, Marquis, Lohse, Richard, Wang, Tallet, Zimmerman, Garland, McCarthy, Galarraga, Kawakami, Ohlendorf, Niemann, Looper, Bannister, Willis, D. Hernandez, Swarzak, West, Moehler, Buckner, Janssen, Hammel.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now, I would like to take a step back and provide some accountability for previous picks. There needs to be a two-week time lag because last week’s pitchers have yet to complete their second start. So here are my selections for Week 8 and how they did.

Carmona – Advised to sit. 5 K, 15.19 ERA, 3.56 WHIP (2 starts)
Kazmir – Advised to sit. Went on DL after column was published
Maine – Advised to start. 2 W, 9 K, 0.75 ERA, 1.00 WHIP (2)
Marshall – Advised to start. W, 8 K, 7.71 ERA, 1.61 WHIP (2)
Penny – Advised to sit. W, 12 K, 3.97 ERA, 1.41 WHIP (2)

Fresh off a glorious World Series title, the Philadelphia Phillies will soon convene for spring training with relatively few roster changes. Outside of a curiously-handled swap of defensively-challenged left fielders (Seattle import Raul Ibanez is several years Pat Burrell’s senior, guaranteed nearly twice as much cash and cost the club a first-round pick), Philly returns with its core intact.

Aside from the obviously crucial health status of Chase Utley (hip), perhaps the most interesting story during March will be the battle for the fifth starter’s job. $20.5 million dollar man Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton are set one through four, but that last slot has a few contenders of varying consequence vying for the job. If we assume for the moment that Carlos Carrasco (Philly’s #2 prospect, per Baseball America) heads back to AAA for some more seasoning and newly-minted Chan Ho Park is probably best kept in the bullpen, then the battle for the last rotation spot comes down to lefty J.A. Happ and right-hander Kyle Kendrick.

Frankly, it doesn’t seem as though there should be much of a competition. Happ, a 26 year-old Northwestern product, is coming off of a stellar campaign at AAA Lehigh Valley. In 135 innings, the lanky 6-6 southpaw whiffed 151 batters (10.07 per nine innings) and walked 3.2 per nine, posting a 3.40 FIP. That strikeout rate might overstate Happ’s case at least somewhat- he’s not overpowering, but he does feature a solid changeup and slider to compensate for an 88-90 MPH fastball.

Happ has a history of making batters appear hapless (sorry), as he has punched out over a batter per inning during his minor league career (545 K in 528.2 IP, or 9.28 K/9). His control isn’t spectacular (3.49 BB/9) and a fly ball tendency (career 40.3 GB%) could be pernicious in Citizen’s Bank Park, so we’re not talking about a can’t miss stud or anything. But Happ’s brand of pitching very likely beats the alternative.

Kyle Kendrick, despite possessing 3 K’s in his name, just doesn’t miss many bats. The 24 year-old has displayed pretty good control in the majors (2.67 BB/9 in 276.2 innings), but his strikeout rate makes Livan Hernandez puff out his chest: Kendrick has a career mark of just 3.81 K/9. Not surprisingly, he has been among the easiest pitchers to make contact with. Only the aforementioned Hernandez (91.3 Contact%) gave batters a more hittable assortment last year among those tossing at least 150 innings, as opponents put the bat on Kendrick’s offerings 89.9% of the time.

The 6-3, 190 pounder managed to hold his head above water in 2007 when he walked just 1.86 batters per nine and posted a 4.94 FIP, but the figure ballooned to 5.55 this past season as he issued 3.3 BB/9 and K’d only 3.93, “good” for a 1.19 K/BB. Even if Kendrick possessed Maddux-esque control, he would be walking a fine line. With a neutral GB/FB ratio and a walk rate above three, he faces very long odds of enjoying major league success.

Happ might not be a sure-fire, flashy prospect, but he has shown the ability to fool hitters throughout his minor league career (something Kendrick didn’t really do either, with 6.28 K/9) and projects to be the better starter. CHONE (which incorporates minor league data) tends to agree, forecasting Happ to post a 4.52 FIP in 2009, compared to 5.11 for Kendrick. If the Phillies get Happ-y, you could do worse than to take a flyer on J.A. in deeper leagues.