The two players I’m recommending this week share almost nothing in common. One is young, powerful, and crushingly enticing. The other is nearing the end of a magnificent career with the same fleetness of foot he enthralled us with 15 years ago. Endless potential versus a potential storybook ending. And if you own either of them right now, you’re likely playing in a very, very deep league.
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Love ’em or hate ’em, they are the New York Yankees and they are still the face of American baseball. They are about winning, they are about hardware (or bling if that’s the word you prefer) and they are all about the big market spending. But we’re not here to judge right now. Whether you think this year’s plundering of the free agent market was more Brittney Spears “Oops, I did it again,” or more Urkel “Did I do that?”, it doesn’t matter, because this is the fantasy baseball section of FanGraphs and that’s what we’re talking here. Our assignment is to tell you who is in this team’s outfield and what that means to fantasy owners, so let’s bypass the small-market, crybaby tantrums and let’s talk game. Read the rest of this entry »
Between the rash of injuries and the flurry of trades we’re seeing right now, your league’s waiver wire should be a hotbed of action. It may or may not be depending on how many owners in your league have given up and turned their attention to the upcoming fantasy football season, but if you’re in a heated competition with just the two months remaining on the baseball season, then you should be keeping up to date with any player that is starting to sniff some regular playing time and can contribute to your cause. Here are two that may help you out…
Casper Wells, SEA |OF| Ownership: ESPN – 14.5% Yahoo – 5.0%
In the wake of the Ichiro Suzuki trade and the demotion of Justin Smoak, the Mariners appear to be going with Wells and Carlos Peguero in the corner outfield spots with recent call-up Mike Carp likely taking over first base duties. All three are in line to receive major increases in playing time, but Wells, seems to be the most seasoned of the three and likely the one to play with the most consistency. Sure, people will talk about Peguero’s power potential, but I look at his strikeouts and see a guy who could do more harm than good to your team. Carp has some promise, but given the shoulder concerns and the weak numbers he showed in Triple-A this season, Wells might just be the safer bet here for some added power.
There are definitely some flaws in Wells’ game right now between the low contact rates and the excessively high SwStr%, but he’s never had a full-time job before and a lot of his impatience at the plate could be him trying to do too much because he feels like he has a limited number of at-bats to prove his worth. That’s likely true to some extent, but now, in a situation like this where the Mariners are folding up their tents for the season, there’s little or no reason for him to put excessive pressure on himself. It’s not that he can just coast the rest of the way, but he can certainly take some time to relax at the plate and get back to the basics. With ISO numbers so strong at every level, there’s no question that the power is for real. With a full-time job for two months and little or no pressure, Wells finally has the opportunity to blossom and show what he can do.
Josh Rutledge, COL |SS| Ownership: ESPN – 13.4% Yahoo – 8.0%
With so much still up in the air regarding Troy Tulowitzki’s return, Rutledge is looking like a solid pick-up if you need help in your middle infield. Tulo insists that he will be back at some point in August, but as it stands right now, he hasn’t even picked up a bat yet. Rutledge has filled in admirably recently and over a quick 10-game span, has his .368 with six runs scored, one home run, six RBI and three stolen bases. His .382 BABIP is pretty inflated, but in looking at his recent minor league totals, he’s routinely posted high BABIP totals. If he can continue to make strong contact and keep the ball in play like this, the hits should continue to fall. True the sample size is small, but we’re also now dealing with a two month long season not six. Short-term help can be quite beneficial, especially if the guy can get on-base regularly and can kick in with some speed.
But there’s also the chance that Rutledge sticks even when Tulo makes it back, so long as he’s playing well. It’s not like Jordan Pacheco is tearing it up at the plate and the Rockies have made the rest of the league well aware that Marco Scutaro is available. If Scutaro goes, then Rutledge can slide over to the keystone once Tulo returns or, if he doesn’t, then perhaps he gets a chance to play some third. He’s an interesting choice for the short term and could easily pan out to be a full-time guy over the next two months.
Monday afternoon saw a flurry of deals as trading season kicked into high gear, but perhaps none was more surprising than seeing the Seattle Mariners send longtime star Ichiro Suzuki to the New York Yankees. In terms of sheer star power – Ichiro, a Yankee! – it’s delicious, but the actual on-field effects may be a bit muted.
The Yankees aren’t acquiring the legendary 2004 Ichiro, who hit .372/.414/.455 with 262 hits, and they’re not even getting quality late-career 2010 Ichiro, who hit .315/.359/.394 with 42 steals. The version of Ichiro that will be coming to the Bronx is the one who has hit only .268/.302/.342 over the last two seasons, with 2012’s .281 wOBA tying him with Jeff Francoeur & Cameron Maybin for the lowest mark by an outfielder in all of baseball.
It’s not too difficult to see why Ichiro has been struggling, because while he’s not really striking out more than he had previously, his walk rate – never great in the first place – is down to a career-low 4.0%. Then as his 38-year-old legs slow, he’s no longer beating out the infield hits he was once famous for. (He has just 13 so far, with more than half the season gone; only twice in his career has he had a season with fewer than 35, and never less than 31.) It’s no surprise that as the infield hits have fallen off since 2010 that his BABIP numbers over the last two seasons are not only under .300, they’re the first time he’s ever been under .316. Not even Ichiro, it seems, can outrun Father Time. Read the rest of this entry »
Before I begin, please allow me to congratulate both Craig Kimbrel and Jeremy Hellickson for winning their respective league’s 2011 Rookie of the Year awards. It was the first time since 1981 when Dave Righetti (NYY- AL) and Fernando Valenzuela (LAD- NL) won that each league’s award went to a pitcher in the same season. Both seemed deserving of such esteemed honors, although one brings on a greater debate than the other. Kimbrel, with a record 46 saves by a rookie, finished with a 2.10 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an eye-popping 127 strikeouts in 77 innings of work. Hellickson, starter of 29 games and winner of 13, finished the season with a 2.95 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and notched 117 Ks in a rookie-leading 189 innings. I could talk about peripherals and who was more deserving and what not, but that’s neither here nor there right now. What is important is how winning this award affects the value of each player in 2012 fantasy baseball drafts. All too often, players are drafted based on name and hype and winning the Rookie of the Year award certainly helps build both. So before you go breaking the bank to acquire this year’s crop, allow me to point out that you should probably keep your expectations low.
– Since Ichiro Suzuki’s batting average hit .260 on July 20th, he has really bounced back, at least from a fantasy perspective. The outfielder has hit .314 over his past 36 games, stealing 10 bases in the process. Ichiro has always had high BABIPs, so a .333 mark during this stretch feels just about right. Owners are likely to be down on Ichiro in drafts next year, but he could probably hit close to .300 with 30 steals for yet another season if his recent success to is to believed.
Today we’ll continue our look at Pick Six values by looking at middle infield and outfield. You can see our discussion of catcher and corner infield values here. As a reminder, the production numbers you see below (FP/PA = Fangraphs Points per Plate Appearance) are weighted averages of THT’s Oliver and BPro’s PECOTA. I didn’t include ZiPS, but feel free to click the players and look up those numbers as well.
Troy Tulowitzki, 1.57 FP/PA, $56.75
Hanley Ramirez, 1.53 FP/PA, $51.50
Robinson Cano, 1.40 FP/PA, $46.75
A tough season just got worse for Pablo Sandoval this week when Andrew Baggarly, the San Francisco beat writer, stated out loud what had become increasingly obvious over the past few weeks: the Panda has had to grab some pine. The move has had implications both real and fantasy.
Sandoval is now a dropper in most re-draft leagues. He’s not playing enough and when he does, he’s been struggling. Though he no longer swings at more than 50% of out-of-zone offerings, his 44.4% number in that category this year would still rank him as first- or second-worst among batting title qualifiers in that category over the last three years. He does supplement that with a decent contact percentage on pitches outside the zone (77.1%), but that number ranks as 26th-best this year. And even given that decent contact percentage, he still makes contact on those pitches less often than the average batter on an in-zone pitch (88.2%).
That sort of thing has worked for other batters – obviously, Vladimir Guerrero (39.4 career O-Swing%) comes to mind. Vlad the Impaler owns an edge in both nickname ferocity and power with the bat, and those things are linked. Guerrero’s ISO both career (.243) and 2010 (.191) far out-ranks the kung-fu-less Panda’s (.178, .137 respectively). Guerrero has always had a nice BABIP (.319 career), but until recently he was also a svelte, athletic base runner.
Otherwise, the similarities continue. Guerrero’s groundball-to-flyball ratio is 1.20, while Sandovals’ is over one again (1.19 this year, 1.25 career). They both reach, they both put the ball on the ground, and until this year, they both had nice BABIPs. Sandoval’s current BABIP (.289) is well below his career level (.324) as well as his xBABIP (.307). But, even with a few ticks forward in batting average, his missing power is a problem.
He’s stuck in a bind here. He could elevate the ball more and add some power via the flyball, but then his BABIP would drop because of the basic nature of flyballs. Or he could continue on his path and wait for his BABIP luck to return – he did have close to a .200 ISO combined over his last three minor league stops, with high BABIPs and the same approach. The problem with being a ‘Fat Ichiro’ is that those high BABIPs have something to do with Ichiro’s high volume of groundballs and his ability to use his athleticism and funky run/swing combo to his advantage. Sandoval has neither of those abilities, nor the raw power of Guerrero.
He’s in a tough position, and so are his keeper league owners. Deeper keeper league owners have no choice but to hold on to him and hope the kung fu returns – there’s no sense in selling low. Shallower leagues can bid him adieu.
In re-draft leagues, there are a couple more notes regarding his benching. Edgar Renteria will play shortstop most days, and given his current ISO (.100) and career ISO (.113), it seems that he could outperform his ZiPs RoS ISO (.050) fairly easily. The ZiPs number is understandable given his ISO last year (.078) and age (35), but Renteria’s team is in a pennant race and the end of his career is possibly in sight – motivation levels are high. Deep league owners looking for magic in a bottle could look his direction, considering his availability (5% owned). Ditto for Juan Uribe, but he was playing often already, is owned in more leagues (22% owned), and might just have used up all of his tricks in his two-homer, six-RBI inning the other day.
It’s been a long time since we’ve updated the outfielders – moving across country will do that to you. While I struggled with boxes and furniture, injuries and mediocre play have done some serious damage at the top of the tier.
The Top Options:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.361 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.339 wOBA, .364 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.435 wOBA, .390 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.400 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.344 wOBA, .376 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.395 wOBA, .365 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.389 wOBA, .400 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox (.377 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado (.373 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
This may upset some people, but it’s just hard to separate out an elite sub-set of outfielders right now. Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp and Justin Upton certainly have the upside to go on a tear and make this ranking seem silly, but right now they just aren’t showing it. They may even need to go on a tear just to get to the lower end of their preseason projections. Another way to spin this is that there are a lot of really nice outfielders. Everyone in this tier, all the way down to Carlos Gonzalez can give you positive value in all five fantasy categories. Upton’s strikeout rate might mean that his batting average will sink him out of this tier, but he’s also shown lower strikeout rates and higher batting averages in the past, so let’s not count him out yet.
There’s Nothing Wrong With…
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.351 wOBA, .354 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.381 wOBA, .374 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.399 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.362 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA))
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.279 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.382 wOBA, .378 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Although this tier is headed up by a couple of veterans, it’s the young speedsters that have the better chance of moving up the ladder. Ichiro! will give you the batting average, but the rest of his line looks a little too much like Denard Span’s to award him first-tier status, and it’s McCutchen that might soon put up Crawford-like numbers to advance tiers. Torii Hunter has power and speed, but it’s a healthy Shin-Soo Choo that has the stronger batting average, so therefore more upside.
Not Quite Five-Category Performers
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.377 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner, New York AL (.371 wOBA, .334 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Adam Dunn, Washington (.403 wOBA, .400 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.426 wOBA, .413 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
This is the group that provides OF1-like production in deeper leagues, but they’d make a shallow mixed league roster look a little wonky. Brett Gardner and Jayson Werth are the risers here, but Adam Dunn belongs even with his batting average. Manny Ramirez may just fall another tier, especially if he’s out much longer after the break. He’s still good when he’s in, though.
Upside to Join the Top
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.321 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.388 wOBA, .347 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jason Bay, New York NL (.349 wOBA, .375 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.373 wOBA, .374 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.363 wOBA, .362 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Colby Rasmus fans will hem and haw, but they might want to check the rest-of-season projections for Curtis Granderson before they get too heated up. They both have some platoon issues (Granderson’s are more pronounced), both don’t have great batting averages, and both have great power and speed. Oh, and this space feels a little vindicated by Carlos Quentin’s recent hot streak, which has shown that he still has much power, even if the batting average is a problem. The BABIP is so low that with additional regression even the batting average might be nice for the second half.
Coming into the year, we weren’t expecting Ichiro to have another top-20 fantasy season, and for good reason. He only stole 26 bases in 2009, and expecting a 36 year old to continue to flash top notch speed is asking too much. To refresh your memory, this is what I had to say about Ichiro in the Second Opinion:
Ichiro’s main value, his speed, is slowly dying. Even though he missed time at the start of the season with a bleeding ulcer, he probably would have fallen short of the 30 steals mark for the first time in his career…another .300 season with 90 runs and 25 stolen bases is on the horizon for Ichiro in 2010
To date, Ichiro has stolen 20 bases in 27 tries, while batting .336/.389/.437 in 313 plate appearances. When I said he’d steal 25 bases, I had no idea he’d reach that mark by the All-Star break. So, what gives? Last season, the Mariners attempted 122 steals over a 162 game season. This year, they have attempted to swipe a bag 77 times in only 70 games. You don’t need to be a math major to see that the Mariners are running at a much higher rate than before. This is likely because the Mariners offense lacks a big time slugger to drive runners in, in conjunction with the offseason addition of another speed threat in Chone Figgins. If the guys on the basepaths don’t make things happen, the team is less likely to have runners cross home plate.
ESPN’s Player Rater ranks Ichiro as the 21st best fantasy player thus far. While I’m not sure what that means (seeing that ESPN doesn’t explain their methods), it is much higher than I had him ranked coming into the year (39th). As long as his steal rate doesn’t turn Nyjeresque, Ichiro is still a top talent in fantasy leagues. His high average combined with his high at-bat totals can help your team support bigger sluggers, which is a huge plus in roto leagues.
Some more fun facts about Ichiro to get you through the day:
– Ichiro is better than you, and he knows it.
– Last season, Ichiro’s batted ball percentages (LD/GB/FB) were 18.2/55.6/26.2. This year? A remarkably consistent 18.0/55.5/26.5.
– Ichiro’s strikeout rate is the worst of his career, while his walk rate is the second best he’s ever had.
– Ichiro is a snappy dresser.
– Ichiro’s ISO (.101) is exactly the same as his career rate.
– Ichiro’s current wRC+ ranks 2010 as his second best offensive season (tied with 2001, his rookie year).
– Throughout his entire career, Ichiro has gotten a hit on half of his bunts.
– Ichiro replaced Jay Buhner long ago, and I still haven’t forgiven him.