One Sad (Kung-Fu-Less) Panda
A tough season just got worse for Pablo Sandoval this week when Andrew Baggarly, the San Francisco beat writer, stated out loud what had become increasingly obvious over the past few weeks: the Panda has had to grab some pine. The move has had implications both real and fantasy.
Sandoval is now a dropper in most re-draft leagues. He’s not playing enough and when he does, he’s been struggling. Though he no longer swings at more than 50% of out-of-zone offerings, his 44.4% number in that category this year would still rank him as first- or second-worst among batting title qualifiers in that category over the last three years. He does supplement that with a decent contact percentage on pitches outside the zone (77.1%), but that number ranks as 26th-best this year. And even given that decent contact percentage, he still makes contact on those pitches less often than the average batter on an in-zone pitch (88.2%).
That sort of thing has worked for other batters – obviously, Vladimir Guerrero (39.4 career O-Swing%) comes to mind. Vlad the Impaler owns an edge in both nickname ferocity and power with the bat, and those things are linked. Guerrero’s ISO both career (.243) and 2010 (.191) far out-ranks the kung-fu-less Panda’s (.178, .137 respectively). Guerrero has always had a nice BABIP (.319 career), but until recently he was also a svelte, athletic base runner.
Otherwise, the similarities continue. Guerrero’s groundball-to-flyball ratio is 1.20, while Sandovals’ is over one again (1.19 this year, 1.25 career). They both reach, they both put the ball on the ground, and until this year, they both had nice BABIPs. Sandoval’s current BABIP (.289) is well below his career level (.324) as well as his xBABIP (.307). But, even with a few ticks forward in batting average, his missing power is a problem.
He’s stuck in a bind here. He could elevate the ball more and add some power via the flyball, but then his BABIP would drop because of the basic nature of flyballs. Or he could continue on his path and wait for his BABIP luck to return – he did have close to a .200 ISO combined over his last three minor league stops, with high BABIPs and the same approach. The problem with being a ‘Fat Ichiro’ is that those high BABIPs have something to do with Ichiro’s high volume of groundballs and his ability to use his athleticism and funky run/swing combo to his advantage. Sandoval has neither of those abilities, nor the raw power of Guerrero.
He’s in a tough position, and so are his keeper league owners. Deeper keeper league owners have no choice but to hold on to him and hope the kung fu returns – there’s no sense in selling low. Shallower leagues can bid him adieu.
In re-draft leagues, there are a couple more notes regarding his benching. Edgar Renteria will play shortstop most days, and given his current ISO (.100) and career ISO (.113), it seems that he could outperform his ZiPs RoS ISO (.050) fairly easily. The ZiPs number is understandable given his ISO last year (.078) and age (35), but Renteria’s team is in a pennant race and the end of his career is possibly in sight – motivation levels are high. Deep league owners looking for magic in a bottle could look his direction, considering his availability (5% owned). Ditto for Juan Uribe, but he was playing often already, is owned in more leagues (22% owned), and might just have used up all of his tricks in his two-homer, six-RBI inning the other day.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Sad Panda? Is that a southpark reference? Awesome.
When one little panda puts his furry little willy in another panda’s ear, that makes me a very sad panda.
Thank God he’s struggling, I’m hoping this ridiculous nickname and merchandise (Manny hair is equally disturbing) will be over, because I don’t take kindly to their types ’round chere.
Now Skeeter, they ain’t hurtin’ nobody.
I don’t think the numbers tell the whole story with Pablo. He just looks like he’s been pressing all year. Pitchers have been feeding him high fastballs that he just can’t lay off, and it’s as if each bad at bat carries over to the next. If he can even improve his patience a little, and start getting some better pitches to swing at, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw the panda of old.
Nice pinch hit double last night in the slugfest at Coors, though I recall he was down in the count (1-2?) with at least one sub-optimal swing beforehand.
Things that happened to Panda this year:
1. Gained weight.
2. Got a divorce.
3. The House he bought his mom, burned down.
4. He loses his starting job.
He’s had as bad of a year as Hurley on Lost.
I’ve been one of his supporters all year and think the benching is waranted. Whatever is the reason for his bad play he hasn’t been able to break out of it. It’s even starting to effect him on defense. Luckily he’s a great team player and is still seen cheering his team on.
This season may be lost, but if he is willing to commit to losing weight and improving his plate discipline then he should be back to what we saw him do just last season. Worst case scenario, he can go back behind the plate and would be a good backup catcher.
Well, four is just what happens when you play like he did, so it’s not fair to put that on the list, but yeah, #s 1-3 are tough luck and are probably weighing on him too.
#1 isn’t bad luck. He has access to all the best personal trainers/dietitians – he has no excuse for gaining weight.
could be related to #2 though, depending on his relationship to eating haha.
Need someone to replace Sandoval for my finals.
Betemit, Aviles, Chris Johnson or Morse?
I think I would take Aviles for singles/average, Morse for power. Betemit for all-around mediocrity. I don’t really believe in Johnson.
Ended up going with Morse, thanks for the advice.
You can’t be serious. Guerrero is a once in a generation talent and is Cooperstown bound. Insulting to vlad dude.
I actually thought this was complimentary to Vlad…the article points out that despite similar things like reaching for the ball, Panda doesn’t have anywhere near his power or success with the approach. Fat Ichiro summed it up (and I love Pablo).
Knew about the divorce and the weight battle, but hadn’t heard about his mom’s house. What a year to deal with as a 24 year old.
As for Pablo catching, he’d certainly be a much more valuable Strat-O-Matic player if he got back there two or three times a season (yes, he’s one of my keepers :-), and in a very brief conversation two Fantasy Camps ago he told me it was his favorite position, fwiw.
But there’s this guy named Buster (thank god!)…
Even without the fluky high AVG he at least has his baserunning, defense and good approach to fall back on. /giggle
He looks more like “Fat Mike Jacobs” at this point. No one outside of the Bay Area is at all shocked to find out this kid isn’t going to hit .330+ every year. I also loved the people arguing this spring on fangraphs that he was an above average 3B. He pretty clearly belongs at 1B, and if he doesn’t move there now it certainly won’t be long (with the caveat that Brian Sabean doesn’t properly understand the value of defense).
i LOL’ed when you said Fat Ichiro
Umm, dude’s also like 24. Let’s see how he does next year.
I agree with this – that’s why I said that deeper keeper leagues should hold on to him and that he could have a good BABIP year again next year – but I’ll admit I’m more pessimistic now.