Ichiro is Still Awesome
Coming into the year, we weren’t expecting Ichiro to have another top-20 fantasy season, and for good reason. He only stole 26 bases in 2009, and expecting a 36 year old to continue to flash top notch speed is asking too much. To refresh your memory, this is what I had to say about Ichiro in the Second Opinion:
Ichiro’s main value, his speed, is slowly dying. Even though he missed time at the start of the season with a bleeding ulcer, he probably would have fallen short of the 30 steals mark for the first time in his career…another .300 season with 90 runs and 25 stolen bases is on the horizon for Ichiro in 2010
To date, Ichiro has stolen 20 bases in 27 tries, while batting .336/.389/.437 in 313 plate appearances. When I said he’d steal 25 bases, I had no idea he’d reach that mark by the All-Star break. So, what gives? Last season, the Mariners attempted 122 steals over a 162 game season. This year, they have attempted to swipe a bag 77 times in only 70 games. You don’t need to be a math major to see that the Mariners are running at a much higher rate than before. This is likely because the Mariners offense lacks a big time slugger to drive runners in, in conjunction with the offseason addition of another speed threat in Chone Figgins. If the guys on the basepaths don’t make things happen, the team is less likely to have runners cross home plate.
ESPN’s Player Rater ranks Ichiro as the 21st best fantasy player thus far. While I’m not sure what that means (seeing that ESPN doesn’t explain their methods), it is much higher than I had him ranked coming into the year (39th). As long as his steal rate doesn’t turn Nyjeresque, Ichiro is still a top talent in fantasy leagues. His high average combined with his high at-bat totals can help your team support bigger sluggers, which is a huge plus in roto leagues.
Some more fun facts about Ichiro to get you through the day:
– Ichiro is better than you, and he knows it.
– Last season, Ichiro’s batted ball percentages (LD/GB/FB) were 18.2/55.6/26.2. This year? A remarkably consistent 18.0/55.5/26.5.
– Ichiro’s strikeout rate is the worst of his career, while his walk rate is the second best he’s ever had.
– Ichiro is a snappy dresser.
– Ichiro’s ISO (.101) is exactly the same as his career rate.
– Ichiro’s current wRC+ ranks 2010 as his second best offensive season (tied with 2001, his rookie year).
– Throughout his entire career, Ichiro has gotten a hit on half of his bunts.
– Ichiro replaced Jay Buhner long ago, and I still haven’t forgiven him.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
– Ichiro is better than you, and he knows it.
– Ichiro is a snappy dresser.
That’s a pretty good Carson Cistulli impression.
I’m honored
Unfortunately because Seattle’s lineup is so bad Ichiro is not an awesome fantasy player. He only has 30 runs and 22 RBI’s. ZIP’s predicts 74 runs and 48 RBI’s for the season which is really awful, especially in a season where there are so many other stolen base threats. ZIP’s predicts 16 more stolen bases the rest of the season. As a comparison ZIP’s predicts Carlos Gomez to have almost the same numbers except batting average for the rest of the season.
You are correct about the runs. He isn’t going to score at an elite level, but he’ll still be at a decent total by the time the year is up. His batting average and speed more than make up for it.
ESPN said he’s #21, but I don’t necessarily agree. I’d peg him more in the early thirties because of the runs, but that is still a top fantasy player.
well, you better hope you are in an AVG league…. for those of us in OPS leagues, Ichiro is nowhere close to a top 30 player….
“While I’m not sure what that means (seeing that ESPN doesn’t explain their methods)”
A quick Google shows that ESPN does in fact explain their methods:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2897967
Whether or not this is terribly useful is another question, but there is some explanation available.
Thanks for the link, Logan. Strange that they wouldn’t have a link to it on their player rater page, but at least they came out and explained it at one point.
I was offered Ichiro for Corey Hart and Carlos Santana in a non keeper. Just making sure I should take it?
Assuming you need steals, and have HR to spare, as well as another solid catcher. Yes, you should take it.
Considering Ichiro’s daily routine, his devotion to flexibility, his awesomeness, and (my guess) his quest for 3,000 hits, I would expect the same kind of consistency from him for the next three years.
Another thing: if you watch Ichiro over the years you notice he doesn’t go out on fly balls. It seems like at times he sees his health as more important than the diving catch. Pretty much a polar opposite of, say, Griffey’s defense (that amazing broken wrist catch.) Ichiro’s saving his body in the outfield and producing at the plate.
A hit on half his bunts? Wow.
Takes me back to High Heat 2001, and one Mr. Luis Castillo, who could bat .500 on the year if you bunt for a hit with him every time he came up.
And once again, this season demonstrates that the best predictor of Ichiro’s performance isn’t some fancy statistical model. It isn’t a simple aging curve.
No. It’s his career numbers. Whatever he’s done over his career, that’s what he’ll do next season.
At some point that will change, but I’m not going to start predicting it.
You forgot one fact about Ichiro:
Ichiro is and always has been better than Jay Buhner.
I agree that Ichiro adds tremendous value to some teams…
But I simply can’t agree that his avg and speed make up for “74 runs and 48 RBI’s for the season”. If anything, they make him slightly above average. If Ichiro was projected at 90+ runs and 50-60+ rbi along with the avg and speed, then we’re talking elite. But 74 runs?
Zips:
74-7-47-36-.333-.383
88-19-82-19-.289-.384
109-26-97-22-.276-.331
They are ranked by ESPN at 20, 39 and 51 respectively. I’d be tempted to say it should be just the opposite. Bottom-line is that I really like Ichiro, but more as a top 50 not 25. Other point is that ESPN really stands for Extraordinary Scientific Prognostication Nonsense.