Archive for Fantasy

In no surprise here, Stephen Strasburg has been named the Washington Nationals Opening Day starter with Max Scherzer ready, but not 100% ready for the responsibilities. This will be his fourth Opening Day start and is coming off of a 3.60 ERA in 2016.  During the offseason, he decided to pitch from the stretch no matter what the scenario is on base.

“I’m not trying to reinvent myself,” Strasburg said to The Washington Post. “But I’m trying to simplify things as much as I can.”

Doubtful this messes with his value or changes any mentality surrounding his ADP rating.

On the Agenda

1. New York Matz
2. Kipnis almost ready
3. Extensions with Lucroy

New York Matz

Uh oh.

Mike Puma reported Steve Matz will not be making his next scheduled start due to “irritation in his left elbow.”

The team is stressing he doesn’t have any structural damage, but at this point, during the spring training months, the precautionary measures are taken to an extreme. And I totally support that, because the Mets care what I think.

It’s also a bit worrisome considering the 25-year-old had surgery last October to remove a bone spur and is one of many pitchers to undergo Tommy John surgery.

He has a career 8.73 K/9 ratio and tossed a 3.40 ERA with the Mets last season.

He will not undergo an MRI but will play catch Monday to see if any additional steps need to be taken.

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If you’re subscribed to any type of baseball Twitter accounts or apps (and you probably are) you’ve noticed Adam Rosales keeps doing things and his name continues to pop up. Don’t worry. Not only is this spring training, but it’s Adam Rosales.

No offense, but the guy has well, no offense.

Last season he was making more plate appearances, but he’s back with Oakland and there is a lot of foul territory at O.co. His flyball rate has increased, but don’t get excited on his spring numbers…at least not yet.

On the Agenda

1. Chris Owings…so hot right now
2. Finding Nimmo
3. J.D. Martinez

Chris Owings…so hot right now

via GIPHY

This guy you can get a little excited about.

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Chi Chi Gonzalez has a cool name, but he doesn’t have a cool scenario at the moment. The 25-year-old has been diagnosed with a “partial UCL tear in his pitching elbow,” according to Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Gonzalez had a rough few outings with the Rangers in 2016. An 8.71 ERA with a low strikeout rate doesn’t help the situation. Mind you it is a small sample size, we were mentally ready for him to start in Triple-A.

Now, we are just mentally prepared to not see him in action for a while if Tommy John is in his near future.

On the Agenda

1. Keon Broxton
2. I’m so Prado You
3. Getting Miggy Wit’ it

Keon Broxton

Sorry, Keon Broxton, you don’t get a cool pun, maybe next time when I have had some time to think.

During a game on Friday, the Brewers outfielder was removed due to “discomfort in his surgically-repaired right wrist.”

These things are often exaggerated during spring training, but they still freak people out. This was just a precautionary thing as he said he “felt a twinge” during a check swing.

He’s had a strong spring training and is hoping to be the leadoff hitter for the team. He finished his 2016 campaign with a .294/.399/.538 and 23 stolen bags.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-next-step-for-keon-broxton-and-domingo-santana/

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I refuse to make this a Tim Tebow post. I won’t allow it.

With that said, he had a two-hit game and raised his batting average to .214. He even threw in a diving catch for good measure. Adjust your fantasy teams accordingly. Actually, don’t, that was a joke.

Okay, now that we have that out of our system…

On the Agenda

1. David Wrong
2. Scott Kazmir’s slowball
3. Get a grip, Scherzer

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The San Francisco Giants of recent history have mystified the baseball world. Three unexpected World Series championships in five seasons will have that effect on people. In the mid-2000s, Giants fans endured teams that were Barry Bonds or bust. When Pablo Sandoval was named an All-Star in 2011, he became the first homegrown Giants position player to be so honored since Matt Williams in 1996.

All that has changed. Call it what you wish: Devil Magic, Pixie Dust, or Just Plain Luck. Any way you slice it, the modern Giants have churned out above-average position players at an above-average rate. Sandoval, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, and Matt Duffy have all made their mark on the big leagues since 2009, and most have been unexpected contributors to unexpected title runs. Read the rest of this entry »

Last offseason, Jeff Sullivan noted the dramatic changes George Springer made to his contact and pull rates and how that transformation appeared to make the Astros’ right fielder a safer bet going forward. He also noted that, given the inconsistency between the results of Springer’s first two years in the majors, it was still hard to know what to expect in Season No. 3.

The suspense is over. The 2016 season is in the books, yet it’s not entirely clear what sort of performer Springer will be in 2017. We can certainly look more confidently to Springer to provide plenty of plate appearances. Not only did he serve ably as the Astros’ leadoff hitter for most of the season, but unlike in his first two seasons, Springer stayed healthy, appearing in all 162 games and starting all but one.

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Disclaimer: these projections are bold (at least they’re supposed to be), and most are made in the context of Ottoneu fantasy baseball.

1) Yangervis Solarte will outscore Rougned Odor in 2016.

Rougned Odor is an extreme talent.  His breakout last year has been well documented, and his .273/.313/.520 slash all but guarantees no one is sleeping on him in drafts this year (his hot spring hasn’t done anything but boost his stock).  But for all the fanfare surrounding Odor, we should remember that his breakout was mostly ignited by an insane June that included a .390 BABIP and a BB/K rate that looks like a big outlier (1.25).  Odor’s July was equally sizzling so this isn’t an attempt to pump the brakes on a great young player except to say that he’s not coming with much of a discount in new Ottoneu auctions this season (~$20).

Looking for another under-the-radar 2B that could really turn a profit in 2016? Enter Yangervis Solarte, one of the few players to rival Odor’s 2nd half breakout and his 80 grade name.  Solarte started 2015 white-hot with a .321/.387/.500 slash and .385 wOBA, but fell off the map in May/June.  Something clicked for Solarte in July, however, as he rolled off three straight months of excellent production (wOBA’s of .353, .348, and .362 in July, August, and September), finishing the 2nd half with a .292/.336/.470 line.  That line isn’t all that unlike what Odor dazzled us with last year, and there may be room for improvement for Solarte because of his excellent contact skills and slightly better walk rates (he also hit much better at home than on the road).

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If you sort Yahoo!’s player page descending by ownership, Justin Verlander shows up on the second page. That means, at 70-percent ownership, he ranks in the top 50. Julio Teheran shows up there, too, at 73 percent. What the two have in common: more than 1,000 other players have been more valuable than them.

Verlander deserves an ounce of clemency: his 31 innings haven’t allowed him ample time to generate value. His 6.62 ERA, sixth-worst among all pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings, really damages his stock.

Then again, so would his 5.01 xFIP, good for ninth-worst. Or his 6.06 FIP, good for fifth-worst. He has simply done nothing to inspire confidence in anyone, yet because of name recognition alone he’s owned in far more Yahoo! leagues than the pitchers I’ll present now.

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As part of some midseason RotoGraphs shenanigans organized by Brad Johnson, the Birchwood Brothers (aka Michael and Dan Smirlock) invited me into the Birchwood Derby, a midseason re-draft league. A post-draft recap seems appropriate, mostly because this was my first midseason re-draft ever.

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It took a dominant 11-strikeout, zero-walk performance from Taijuan Walker for the fantasy world to finally take notice of him. I don’t have ownership trend data to exemplify this, but I do have an anecdote: he was available in every league I’m in before the start, and he was owned in every league I’m in shortly after it.

The truth is Walker had demonstrated progress, described here by Eno Sarris, in his prior four starts, notching 27 strikeouts to three walks in 29 innings. Someone who hadn’t been paying attention to Walker probably wouldn’t have noticed: his ERA prior to the recent five-game surge stood at 7.33, and he had completed the sixth inning only twice in nine games. Once a hyped prospect, he looked like a 22-year-old who still needed seasoning to reach his potential.

No longer, as you will probably have to give up an asset of value to acquire Walker from a fellow owner now. The price may not be too steep given his poor ratios (4.94 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), but this is likely the highest they’ll be for the rest of the season.

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