Birchwood Derby Midseason Re-Draft Recap

As part of some midseason RotoGraphs shenanigans organized by Brad Johnson, the Birchwood Brothers (aka Michael and Dan Smirlock) invited me into the Birchwood Derby, a midseason re-draft league. A post-draft recap seems appropriate, mostly because this was my first midseason re-draft ever.

League Specifications:
Teams: 12
Format: Snake
Scoring: Rotisserie, 5×5 (standard categories), season-long (not H2H)
Positions:

• 14 hitters: 2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, Util (81 GP limit)
• 9 pitchers: 2 SP, 2 RP, 5 P (700 IP limit)
• 4 bench

Additional rules:

• No trades
• No disabled list slots
• No touching of the hair or face

Obviously, this league has its quirks, namely in the additional rules department. As Michael mentioned to me via email (as we discussed potential strategies post-draft), an excitable owner cannot exhaust his innings limit prematurely in order to trade his now-useless pitchers for better hitters. Moreover, the lack of a disabled list has already proven itself a boon to other owners and will likely also affect me eventually given I’ve seen 20(!!!!!!) of my players hit the DL in my primary league this year. It has been a three-month, one-man pity party in the League of Women Voters, no doubt.

I can’t blame injuries alone, though; I chronicled my miserable mismanagement of my auction budget in multiple drafts in a piece titled Leftover Auction Cash: Maybe Not a Bad Thing. It has definitely been a bad thing, and it has left my fantasy soul damaged and broken. Thus, the Birchwood Derby is exactly what my damaged, broken soul needed: a chance for rebirth.

A phoenix has risen from the ashes, and his name is Dr. Wurmhat.

I play in year-long rotisserie (roto) leagues, and I have participated in snake drafts. But the Birchwood Derby intersects the two, and that’s something I’ve never encountered. I needed to prepare for the draft, so I prepared the best way I knew how: by not preparing at all.

I’m being droll, but not really, because I waltzed into the draft room without an ounce of planning. It was not a matter of confidence as much as it was one of laziness and lack of free time. I figured I’d employ my encyclopedic — encyclopedic, with tons of air quotes around it — knowledge of players while occasionally referring to FanGraphs’ leaderboards when in a bind.

Little did I know that Yahoo!’s draft kit would completely rattle me. The site ordered players according to their preseason ranks and provided only 2014 statistics and 2015 preseason projections. My encyclopedic knowledge, when paired with my whatever-the-opposite-of-encyclopedic-is memory, functioned very poorly under pressure. Needless to say, some of the draft’s best picks were made late on guys with very low preseason rankings, such as hitters and pitchers who started the season at AAA or on the DL.

Ultimately, I think I made out all right. I’m not thrilled with my roster, and if you ask Steamer what it thinks of my team, it doesn’t disagree. I figure I can’t do as poorly as those two guys who mostly auto-drafted, right? … Right? Hello?

1. Mike Trout, OF
I forgot to mention I had the first overall pick. I drafted first twice last year and fared very well in both leagues, but I still have trouble gauging when it’s optimal to overdraft a player (the 22-slot wait between picks is on my shortlist of Most Stressful Things). It’s a common thread woven through my draft’s fabric: I exhibited fairly consistent poor timing on my picks (or decisions not to pick). Anyway, this is the first time I’ve ever had the luxury of owning Trout, so that’s cool, I guess.

24. Starling Marte, OF
At this point, I was still very rattled by Yahoo!’s outdated draft room. Marte’s good, but I’m not thrilled by this pick, as his batted ball profile doesn’t really support his power output. I maybe should’ve drafted a big corner infield bat, although most were gone at this point, and I already preferred other outfielders such as A.J. Pollock (46th) over Marte. Nerves got the best of me.

25. Ryan Braun, OF

48. Corey Kluber, SP
I love Kluber. I consider myself an original member of the Society. That love may have blinded me from selecting someone like Chris Archer, but I can’t complain. I also lied about my strategy: I tend to wait on pitchers. I think the best are overvalued, and the late rounds bear ample fruit, especially with the influx of a glut of a young, talented arms.

49. Justin Upton, OF

72. Michael Pineda, SP
I like strikeouts and I like control. I’m banking on that .345 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) approaching something resembling normalcy.

73. Kyle Seager, 3B
I’ve always liked Seager, but now I hate him. He’s not bad, but watching the names that followed his — Joc Pederson (74th), Nelson Cruz (78th), Yoenis Cespedes (79th), Kolten Wong (87th) (!!!!!!), Jonathan Lucroy (89th) and Yasmani Grandal (93rd) — made me feel how I imagine it would feel if someone disembowled me with a soup spoon.

V for Vinditte swipes Jose Fernandez (90th) as the 23rd starter off the board.

96. Andrew Miller, RP
Is Craig Kimbrel (99th) no longer a top-3, or even top-5, closer?

97. Jason Hammel, SP
Another example of many K’s and few BBs. Like Seager, Hammel proved a pivotal pick in my draft, as Stephen Vogt went three picks later. I set fire to whatever remained of my backstop “strategy” and moved on.

120. Cameron Maybin, OF
Buried deep on Yahoo!’s preseason rankings, I probably could have taken Maybin a lot later. You live and you learn. Or you don’t. Whatever.

121. Eric Hosmer, 1B
Hosmer’s a pretty underwhelming dude, but the crop of corner infielders is thin at this point. I like my 14th-round first baseman more.

144. Howie Kendrick, 2B
Joe Panik (184th) is comparable, if not preferable, but their differences are subtle. I can feel that 40-pick gap, though.

145. A.J. Ramos, RP
Happy with this pick, as I’d rather own Ramos over Kimbrel (99th), Greg Holland (103rd) and Drew Storen (114th). It was at this point I decided to spend a couple of late picks on elite relievers — a strategy I typically don’t have the luxury to employ, as the benches in my other leagues are three deep or fewer.

The Vottoman Empire’s keen eye notices Miguel Sano’s shortstop eligibility (WTF?!?!) and takes him 149th overall.

The Birchwood Brothers (Ha Cha Stationery) snag Maikel Franco (166th), who I think can be a top-10 third baseman from here on out.

168. Mitch Moreland, 1B (CI)

169. Brandon Crawford, SS

192. Ubaldo Jimenez, SP
I hate Ubaldo. I hate his inconsistency. But I can’t deny he’s preventing baserunners better than ever before in his career, and he’s only a few points of BABIP away from besting his 2010 season, for which he finished 3rd in the National League Cy Young voting, in terms of fielding independent pitching (FIP/xFIP).

193. Wilin Rosario, C
This is where my poor planning comes back to haunt me, as every full-time catcher has been picked and I’m left to dig through the scrap heap. Rosario simply doesn’t see enough playing time to make him relevant, let alone productive. Why I didn’t pick Yadier Molina (197th) or Wilson Ramos (199th) is beyond me, and I will have probably already dropped Rosario by the time this publishes.

216. Lucas Duda, 1B (Util)

217. Shawn Tolleson, RP
Round 18 saw a huge run on lower-end closers, so I’m happy for Tolleson to have fallen to me after Jason Motte, Jim Johnson and Fernando Rodney. Jonathan Papelbon, Roberto Osuna and Luke Gregerson were picked during that round, too; I think Tolleson and those three are all 1) interchangeable and 2) good.

More praise for the Birchwood Brothers, but I really liked Andrew Heaney (219th) as the 54th starter off the board.

240. Marcus Semien, 2B (MI)
I had Delino DeShields Jr. (243rd) at the top of my queue for several rounds, so I don’t know why I ignored him and his incredible speed when filling my final middle infield slot. Semien makes for an OK middle infielder and isn’t far different from Brad Miller, who went two picks later.

241. Kyle Hendricks, SP
Hendricks doesn’t pitch deep enough into games, but he strikes out an acceptable number of hitters while, of course, walking very few. The ground ball rate near 50 percent is enticing, too, and I think he’ll vastly out-earn his draft slot.

264. A.J. Pierzynski, C
We would all learn later that Sciosciapaths, like a true sociopath, drafted five catchers. In other words, he singlehandedly jacked up my draft. (Actually, he had to leave mid-draft, unfortunately, forcing an auto-draft from his queue. He had started to populate his queue but only got around to marking catchers.)

Note to self: Outfield is deep. Steven Souza, Chris Coghlan and Marlon Byrd all went in the 22nd round. Ender Inciarte (DL), Kevin Pillar and Randal Grichuk went in the 24th. Note to self: plan next time, yeah?

265. Michael A. Taylor, OF (Bench)

288. Carter Capps, RP
Strikeouts and an inadvertent insurance policy in case Ramos somehow bursts into flames and Steve Cishek quits baseball to play badminton. But mostly: strikeouts.

289. Bartolo Colon, SP (Bench)
The older he gets, the higher his K/BB climbs. Colon minimizes baserunners better than the rest of the remaining talent. His tendency to give up a few too many home runs concerns me, but I think he’s experiencing a bit of bad luck in that department, too.

312. Kyle Schwarber, C (Bench)
This is my Hail Mary, hoping Miguel Montero hits the DL and the Cubs want to employ Schwarber’s services again. Ultimately, I’ll probably have to get a different third catcher to spell the off-days for both my part-time catchers. I drafted a Frankenstein backstop.

313. Sergio Romo, RP (Bench)
I consider Romo among the best 10 relief men not actively working the 9th inning. Meanwhile, Santiago Casilla continues to scare the bejeezus out of Giants fans and his fantasy owners. Casilla and Romo have played hot potato with the closer role for years, so it’s only a matter of time before Romo earns it back.

Oh, hey, Byron Buxton (320th).

* * *

Steamer thinks my pitching is decent and my offense is bad. Ultimately, it predicts I’ll finish 6th with 60 points, but that includes bench players, too, so projected end-of-season totals misrepresent each team’s field-ready talent. For example, Steamer projects one home run, three runs and three RBI for Schwarber rest-of-season, muddying my team’s offensive projections. And with all due respect, Steamer, you can’t pick up on the nuances of closers (or Kyle Schwarbers) in waiting.

For Birchwood Derby participants and non-participants alike: behold, an Excel spreadsheet documenting the full draft by round and by team. Note that the most egregious picks in terms of draft position were probably a) auto-drafted or b) mine. Also included are Steamer projections by team and player as well as projected standings in terms of categories and points per category.

Who won (and lost) the draft? Best (worst) picks?