Archive for fantasy baseball

A couple weeks back I provided some (hopefully) useful tables demonstrating how R and RBI are affected by the team’s overall run scoring projection and where the hitter is positioned in the batting order.

At the time I assumed that a similar analysis for stolen bases would be unnecessary. I knew that runs and RBI are largely affected by team context and batting order, but had a feeling that stolen bases were simply a function of player skill. Maybe with a small hint of lineup effect.

Thankfully, our very own Birchwood Brothers questioned that assumption and asked if I had come across any similar research for stolen bases. So here I am to present those findings. Does a player’s position in the batting order affect stolen base frequency? Read the rest of this entry »

Below is the Starting Pitcher installment of our 2016 Ottoneu FGpt rankings.

Previous Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Third Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Outfield/Relief Pitcher

In the context of Ottoneu, perhaps rankings are a misnomer, because you really want to know the dollar value each player is worth. We’ve included this information for our benefit. In all, these rankings should help to give you a spread of four dollar values for each player, as well as a comparison to average prices (post-arbitration, pre-cut deadline) within the Ottoneu FGpts universe. Each player’s Ottoneu eligibility (5GS, 10 appearances) is included as well, though players are ranked at their most valuable position. If you have questions on a specific ranking, or a question for a specific ranker, feel free to let us know in the comments.

Consider this your very early, subject to change, Ottoneu pricing cheat sheet.
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I’m going to try something a bit different here.

Instead of analysis, let’s try an instructional piece about how to add a feature to your draft prep spreadsheet. In the instructions that follow, I’ll show you how to make a cheat sheet based on auction values. When you’re done, you’ll have something like this…

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Is Justin Upton going to bat second for the Tigers? Or sixth? What would happen to Addison Russell‘s value if he moved from ninth in the order to second? Is Corey Dickerson really going to hit cleanup for the Rays? How does Yoenis Cespedes‘ signing affect Michael Conforto’s projections?

When it comes to evaluating our typical fantasy baseball hitting categories, we know that home runs, batting average, and stolen bases are dependent upon some mix of skill and playing time (let’s say “skill-dependent”). Runs and RBI are a bit more difficult to assess. They have playing time and skill elements (getting on base and hitting for power), but they are also largely team-dependent. The projection systems, like Steamer, project R and RBI for us, but what if we want to make an adjustment? Or we want to take a gamble on a player winning a particular battle?

My goal with this post is to provide a simple framework that can be used to quickly answer questions like those above. I’m also not the first to attempt this task. So when I’m done displaying my method, I’ll share the other strong approaches I’ve been able to find. Read the rest of this entry »

Finish third in each rotisserie category and you’ll win the league. We’ve all heard or read that at some point. Where does it originate from? Is it founded in fact?

I’ve spent a lot of time acquiring and analyzing standings data of late (AL-only, NL-only, mixed).  And looking at that information got me to thinking that I could easily determine if finishing third across-the-board is really what it’s cracked up to be.

Turns out that it is. Finishing third in all ten categories would have won 67 of the 76 AL-only leagues and 47 of the 51 NL-only leagues I looked at.

But in looking at things a little closer, I found an even better reason you should set your sights on finishing third. One that had never crossed my mind. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week we took a look at standings data, for 12-team AL-only leagues. Now I’m back to present the same findings using a sample of 51 NL-only leagues. What follows is a look at the points required to win an NL-only roto league, what it takes to finish first in each rotisserie category, standings gain points information, and a downloadable Excel file for you to analyze further. Read the rest of this entry »

In the aftermath of Corey Dickerson being traded to the Tampa Bay Rays last week, we have seen numerous thoughts and predictions on his future fantasy value in Tampa. The prevalent belief being that he is no longer mixed league worthy. I actually saw someone in a Facebook discussion group post a tombstone with his player card on it. Photoshop aside, it is time to examine Dickerson’s fantasy value in Tampa. Read the rest of this entry »

As a standings gain point disciple, one of the questions I get asked most is if I know where to get final standings data (and SGP denominators) for AL- and NL-only leagues. You can find reliable mixed-league data if you search hard enough on the web. But you won’t find much, if anything, about the only-league format.

Thanks to a tip from Mike Gianella, I finally got my hands on a nice set of AL- and NL-only standings. Mike suggested I check with the guys that run OnRoto.com. If you’re not familiar with OnRoto, they’re a league hosting and stat service that caters to hard-core and old-school rotisserie leagues… Meaning they host a lot of only leagues.

OnRoto has also historically hosted the various Tout Wars competitions. So this is legit data from a trusted fantasy resource. In this post we’ll be looking only at the AL data (NL coming soon). I was able to obtain the standings for 76 different 12-team AL-only leagues and here’s an analysis of the data… Read the rest of this entry »

Am I keeping too many players?  This is a question I am constantly asking myself as the Ottoneu keeper deadline approaches. Typically, Ottoneu leagues keep over 200 players (around 230-240) but what is the optimal amount?  Certainly it’s extremely league dependent, but is there a general way we can get an idea of how many players actually should be kept? First, we need to answer a couple questions.

Why does it matter if I keep too many players?

 Ottoneu championships can be difficult to win. If you want to increase your odds in the offseason, the main way to do so is to acquire players who are underpaid via offseason trades. These surplus assets allow you to enter the auction with more flexibility, often allowing you to purchase more talent at market value than your rivals. However, trading for surplus assets is only half the battle. Throughout my 4 years playing Ottoneu, I have witnessed many teams trade for surplus talent only to “waste” the benefit they receive from these players by keeping overpaid or marginal players.  The two often negate each other.  We want to trade for underpaid players, but we also want to be conscious of the impact of keeping overpaid players.

Let’s say that you currently own Francisco Lindor at a $10 salary and you believe he is worth $15 (a $5 underpay).  On the same team, you also own Salvador Perez at $8 and Brandon Phillips at $6 (both of whom you think are worth $3). Perez and Phillips combine to be overpaid by $8. This a simple example for convenience, but the net impact of owning these 3 players is to overpay the group by $3.  Each non-surplus asset owned counteracts the surplus assets you have worked hard all offseason to acquire. Owning a $10 Lindor is fun, removing the benefit you receive from a $10 Lindor before the annual auction even occurs is far less fun.

How many players should be kept?

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It’s cliche, but January is as good a time as ever to consider changing some behaviors (probably in response to learning from our mistakes).  Let’s dive into how this annual opportunity to manufacture inspiration can help us improve our fantasy trade skills by reviewing why we trade in the first place.

The foundation of trade is mutual gain.  It really is that simple.  Whether we’re discussing economics or fantasy sports, trade is beneficial because it enables each party to get more of what they want at a (perceived) cost lower than what they could produce it for themselves.

If trade is mutually beneficial, it stands to reason you should consider doing it more often.  In the context of your Ottoneu league (where trading is active and sophisticated), if you’re going to make more trades, you’re going to have to make more trade offers.  Some owners are reluctant to make trade offers, so let me encourage you to live a little more dangerously this year because, in addition to improving your roster, making trade offers will provide you with a lot of additional benefits.

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