Archive for David price

Well, it’s Friday. As we head into the weekend, I wanted to take some time to address some ottoneu thoughts and tactics I’ve been ruminating on over the past week. If you’ve read any of my buying generic series, you likely know that I try to entertain all possibilities and look for value when consensus seems to move in one direction. I’m also constantly on the hunt for ways to operate more efficiently. So these are my current thoughts as I consider the ottoneu landscape. Let’s discuss these in the comments. If I’m missing anything, or these tactics seem off, please let me know.

Might David Price present a buying opportunity?

When we released our starting pitcher rankings a week ago, each of Chad, Justin, and myself had David price between $24-$25 as we head into the 2017 Ottoneu season. This was around the same time that a news of a potential injury broke. According to Jim Bowden, there is concern that Price might need tommy john surgery. If he has tommy john, Price will not be a $25 pitcher. However, Price will be reevaluated today and, according to John Farrell, could play catch again tomorrow.

Well it seems like opinions are all over the map on this one.

Let’s start with what we know. Price injured his elbow, leading many to think Tommy John surgery was necessary. However, even though he has received multiple opinions on his elbow from Dr. James Andrews and Dr. Neal ElAttrach,  it doesn’t appear that he is in any hurry to have surgery, and may be on a quicker recovery time than we realize (based on Farrell’s comments). So what does this mean for Ottoneu?

From the Ottoneu Rules Sec V:
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The Detroit rotation trailed only the Washington staff in WAR last year, and the Nationals went out and signed Detroit’s best starter. Along with Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly will be pitching elsewhere this year, so the Tigers are without three of the six starters that made at least 10 starts for them last year. The pitchers filling those voids are….underwhelming. It’s an understatement to say the gap between the Washington and Detroit rotations is going to grow this year. Read the rest of this entry »

Any day now, Zach Sanders (@zvsanders) will come out with his end-of-season FAVRz/Fantasy Rankings. Look out for them.

For this post, I will provide three sets of rankings using that same approach (summed up z-scores) for our end-of-season “Bullpen Report: Expected Fantasy Rankings”. The Bullpen Report team should follow up with role reports for each division in the coming weeks as well.

The first set of rankings you will find almost anywhere: on the fantasy sites that you use, via player-raters, etc. It’s the standard 5×5 fantasy value (Wins, ERA, WHIP, SO and Saves). The second grid will be for 6×6 leagues (addition of Holds). The last grid will be for 5×5 and 6×6 leagues, but instead of standard ERA and WHIP, we’ll look at rankings if you were to use expected ERA (via SIERA) and adjusted (adj)WHIP through BABIP differential: I will explain below.

1) 5×5 Rankings (Wins, ERA, WHIP, SO and Saves) – actual 5×5 value in column 4; expected 5×5 value in column 5:

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This weekend I had the opportunity to attend Saber Seminar in Boston. It was a wonderful event full of presentations by some amazing people like members of the Red Sox front office staff, Harry Pavilidis and Dan Brooks, Keith Law, and Fangraphs’ own Dave Cameron and Bill Petti among others. I began writing this within 30 minutes of getting back from the airport last night.

For the purposes of daily fantasy strategy, the most interesting presentation of the weekend was that of SABR president, Vince Gennaro. Vince was lamenting the usage of batter-versus-pitcher (BVP) data by both managers and TV broadcasts. Likewise, I hate it when I see daily contest players rely on that data. Vince noted the small sample size issue with BVP data, but presumably he has also read the portion of The Book that proved BVP data is not predictive.

Vince wants to find a better way to play match ups. I assume he’s coming at it from the angle of finding a better way for managers to play match ups and to make both lineup and in game decisions. But his work is equally applicable to daily fantasy strategy. Vince looks at the following five categories in an attempt to determine the best match ups: Read the rest of this entry »

In the preseason, I took a look at the pitchers and catchers who are the best and worst match ups for base stealers. Today I want to update that piece. The home run is king in daily fantasy, but steals can help as well. Picking the best base stealers of the day won’t win you a lot of daily contests, but you can’t spend big on power hitters at every position. A steal will get you a couple of points on DraftStreet, plus it comes along with the point from the single or three quarters of a point from the walk that allowed the hitter to reach base.

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And six weeks later, a team was born…

That’s right. After just six short weeks and hundreds of emails, we finally finished the RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft — Slow Draft Style. The process was definitely cumbersome, to say the least, but we all made it through relatively unscathed. Our fearless leader and draft overseer, Eno Sarris, published the results five rounds at a time (the links to all can be found in this post) and now it’s time to reveal our teams. Well, I don’t know if everyone is going to do it, but here’s mine: Read the rest of this entry »

David Price was awfully good in 2012. So good, that he earned himself some hardware which has been hotly debated in recent days. Fortunately, I’m not here to contribute to that conversation (argument). I’m simply here to wonder if we’ve yet to see the best from Price, and if not, what we might reasonably expect in his follow up to a career season.

Looking back over the last twelve American League Cy Young winners, it appears that it’s more the norm to underperform your Cy standard. This is far from scientific, it’s merely an observation, and a small sample observation at that:

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Continuing this series of comparing FanGraphs Points league scoring to traditional scoring, we’ll begin looking today at pitching.  To start, I decided to look at a traditional points scoring system compared to the ottoneu points scoring system.  There is no apparent “standard” fantasy points system, but I chose the points scoring used at CBSSportsline as my comparison, as it seems fairly typical of systems you see out “in the wild.”  Let’s start with a list of the top-10 pitchers by their system in the 2010 season:

For reference, I also included their rank according to total FanGraphs Points.  Overall, it doesn’t look that different, right?  The top three are identical, and most of the top-10 are ranked similarly in both systems.  There are two pitchers who had a ranking disparty of at least 10 spots, however: David Price and Tim Hudson.

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Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.

BUY

Scott Baker – Right now his ERA is a poor 4.93 and his WHIP checks in at 1.36, not what owners were expecting when they drafted him in the middle rounds of their fantasy draft. But Baker has a 3.91 K/BB ratio and both his FIP and xFIP show a pitcher who should have an ERA in the 3.65 range. It has been feast or famine for Baker this year, with four Quality Starts and three outings where he gave up 5 ER or more. But this is the same guy who went 26-13 over the two previous seasons with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.184 WHIP. Baker has a .342 BABIP, so there is reason to hope the beatings will taper off once regression kicks in.

Edwin Jackson – Most fantasy owners did not expect a repeat of Jackson’s 2009, when he posted 13 Wins and a 3.62 ERA. But few expected him to be 2-5 with a 6.33 ERA in the third week of May, either. Jackson’s xFIP actually shows him as a better pitcher this year (4.08) than a season ago (4.39). Right now he is being hurt by the gopher ball, having allowed 8 HR in 54 IP. Six of those homers have come in home starts, as Jackson is adjusting to pitching in Chase Field. But Jackson has dramatically increased his GB/FB rate from 0.92 to 1.47 this year. His K/9 rate is up to 7.33 from 6.77 a year ago. If his HR/FB rate moves away from its current 15.1 percent, Jackson could see a huge boost in his fantasy value.

Magglio Ordonez – In 2007 Ordonez combined for 256 R + RBIs thanks in part to a .595 SLG. The following year he was down to 175 R + RBIs and a .494 SLG and last year those marks were 104 and .428, respectively. Ordonez is off to a fast start, one that has him on pace to better 2008’s numbers. There will be owners out there looking to sell high on Ordonez, but neither his BABIP (.323 vs. 318 lifetime) nor HR/FB (12.5 vs. 13.5) are unsustainable. His 1.35 BB/K is the best mark of his career as is his 90.2 Contact%. Since contact rate is one of the quickest stats to stabilize (150 PA), Ordonez’ is likely to maintain his improvement in this area for the remainder of the season.

SELL

Andrew McCutchen – A fast start has McCutchen on pace to shatter pre-season expectations. But if a .376 BABIP raises eyebrows for an unsustainable rate, the Dutton-Carty xBABIP model has McCutchen’s line so far this year producing a .323 BABIP. McCutchen’s power in 2009 in the majors caught a lot of people by surprise but he has matched that production so far this year, too. But it is unlikely that he will maintain an AVG 40-50 points higher than all of the projection systems forecasted for him. McCutchen should not be traded at all costs, but now is an excellent time to cash in on his great start.

Justin Morneau – He currently leads the league in AVG and is third in home runs. Morneau is achieving that with a .404 BABIP and career-high marks in both FB% (52.4) and HR/FB (20.0). A high BABIP usually does not accompany a high FB%. Of the eight batters with a 50 percent or better FB%, only three have a BABIP over .300, so it is very likely that at least one of these marks is going to have to give. Traditionally, Morneau has been an excellent RBI man. But even with his great start in AVG and HR, he is on pace to deliver fewer RBIs than either 2006 or 2008. Like McCutchen, Morneau is another guy who will produce good numbers throughout the 2010 season. But his trade value will never be higher.

David Price – Over-hyped in 2009, Price fell off the radar for a lot of fantasy owners heading into drafts this year. He has rewarded fantasy owners who did not give up on him with a fantastic start, as he is 6-1 with a 1.81 ERA. However, by xFIP, Price is not substantially better in 2010 than he was a season ago, when he finished 10-7 with a 4.42 ERA. This year’s xFIP is 3.98 while it was 4.49 in 2009. I would be a shade more aggressive shopping Price at this point than either of the hitters mentioned above.

HUNCH

Jeff Francis – After missing all of the 2009 season recovering from labrum surgery, Francis is back in the majors with the Rockies. The history of pitchers with this surgery is not encouraging but I like Francis’ chance to buck those odds and beat his RoS ZiPS projection of 4 W, 4.55 ERA, 60 Ks and a 1.41 WHIP.

Today’s premium prospects receive more scrutiny than ever. Short of parting the Red Sea and ending world hunger (I’m looking at you, Strasburg), hot-shot young players may receive an, “is that it?” reaction from fans when they merely hold their own in the early stages of their respective big league careers.

Take Tampa’s David Price. The 1st overall pick in the 2007 draft abused minor league hitters and received national acclaim by flinging upper-90’s heat and sinister upper-80’s sliders out of the ‘pen during the 2008 playoffs. Entering 2009, Price adorned magazine covers and battled Matt Wieters for the titles of Best Prospect Ever and Time Man of the Year.

While Price didn’t dominate from the get-go as a starter, he more than held his own for a 23-year-old in the A.L. East. In 128.1 IP, he posted rates of 7.15 K/9, 3.79 BB/9 and a 4.49 xFIP. In 2010, Price has a 1.91 ERA in 42.1 frames. While he hasn’t suddenly morphed into Sandy Koufax circa 1963, Price has shown improvement in a few key areas.

In ’09, Price didn’t get batters to chase or swing through a pitch all that often. His outside swing percentage was 22.9 (25-27% MLB average), and his swinging strike percentage was a mild 7.5 (8-8.5% MLB average). This year, Price is getting outside swings 30 percent of the time, while getting a swinging strike 8.4 percent.

During his first year in the rotation, the 6-6 southpaw relied upon two main pitches: a 93 MPH four-seam fastball and an 83-84 MPH slider. The second time around, Price’s repertoire appears more expansive. Rather than tossing a four-seamer 71 percent of the time and mixing in sliders about 20 percent, Price has thrown a two-seamer about 24 percent and has gone to a 76-77 MPH curveball (thrown about 18 percent) as his breaking pitch of choice. His percentage of four-seam fastballs is in the low forties, and his slider percentage is less than half of what it was last season.

With the two-seamer (thrown about 90 MPH, with about 2 inches more tailing action in on lefties than the average two-seamer), Price’s ground ball rate has ticked up a bit, from 41.5% to 43.4%. The curve, while not getting many whiffs (6.1%, compared to the 10.5% MLB average), is getting plenty of strikes: 70.2%, way above the 58% big league average.

Whether the introduction of another breaking pitch has played a part or not, Price’s slider has been harder to hit this year. In ’09, the slide-piece was whiffed at just 5.9% (13% MLB average). In 2010, that whiff rate has climbed to a more palatable 11.1%. Perhaps the presence of two breaking balls has hitters less certain about what Price is going to throw. Along the same lines, his four-seamer, whiffed at 8.2 percent in 2009, has an elite 10 percent whiff rate in 2010 (6 percent MLB average).

The 24 year-old won’t keep that shiny ERA, as his BABIP will rise from .231, he’ll strand fewer than 81.6 percent of base runners and he’ll surrender more than a 4.3 HR/FB%. But Price has whiffed 7.02 per nine innings, walked 2.98 and has a solid 4.02 xFIP.

This is just a theory, but David Price with four pitches would certainly appear to be harder to hit than David Price with just two offerings. Now, batters have to anticipate four-seam, two-seam, curve or slider, as opposed to mainly just four-seam or slider. Price might not yet be a top-of-the-line starter, but he’s getting there.