Week Seven Trade Possibilities
Here are seven players for your consideration to either acquire or send packing.
BUY
Scott Baker – Right now his ERA is a poor 4.93 and his WHIP checks in at 1.36, not what owners were expecting when they drafted him in the middle rounds of their fantasy draft. But Baker has a 3.91 K/BB ratio and both his FIP and xFIP show a pitcher who should have an ERA in the 3.65 range. It has been feast or famine for Baker this year, with four Quality Starts and three outings where he gave up 5 ER or more. But this is the same guy who went 26-13 over the two previous seasons with a 3.94 ERA and a 1.184 WHIP. Baker has a .342 BABIP, so there is reason to hope the beatings will taper off once regression kicks in.
Edwin Jackson – Most fantasy owners did not expect a repeat of Jackson’s 2009, when he posted 13 Wins and a 3.62 ERA. But few expected him to be 2-5 with a 6.33 ERA in the third week of May, either. Jackson’s xFIP actually shows him as a better pitcher this year (4.08) than a season ago (4.39). Right now he is being hurt by the gopher ball, having allowed 8 HR in 54 IP. Six of those homers have come in home starts, as Jackson is adjusting to pitching in Chase Field. But Jackson has dramatically increased his GB/FB rate from 0.92 to 1.47 this year. His K/9 rate is up to 7.33 from 6.77 a year ago. If his HR/FB rate moves away from its current 15.1 percent, Jackson could see a huge boost in his fantasy value.
Magglio Ordonez – In 2007 Ordonez combined for 256 R + RBIs thanks in part to a .595 SLG. The following year he was down to 175 R + RBIs and a .494 SLG and last year those marks were 104 and .428, respectively. Ordonez is off to a fast start, one that has him on pace to better 2008’s numbers. There will be owners out there looking to sell high on Ordonez, but neither his BABIP (.323 vs. 318 lifetime) nor HR/FB (12.5 vs. 13.5) are unsustainable. His 1.35 BB/K is the best mark of his career as is his 90.2 Contact%. Since contact rate is one of the quickest stats to stabilize (150 PA), Ordonez’ is likely to maintain his improvement in this area for the remainder of the season.
SELL
Andrew McCutchen – A fast start has McCutchen on pace to shatter pre-season expectations. But if a .376 BABIP raises eyebrows for an unsustainable rate, the Dutton-Carty xBABIP model has McCutchen’s line so far this year producing a .323 BABIP. McCutchen’s power in 2009 in the majors caught a lot of people by surprise but he has matched that production so far this year, too. But it is unlikely that he will maintain an AVG 40-50 points higher than all of the projection systems forecasted for him. McCutchen should not be traded at all costs, but now is an excellent time to cash in on his great start.
Justin Morneau – He currently leads the league in AVG and is third in home runs. Morneau is achieving that with a .404 BABIP and career-high marks in both FB% (52.4) and HR/FB (20.0). A high BABIP usually does not accompany a high FB%. Of the eight batters with a 50 percent or better FB%, only three have a BABIP over .300, so it is very likely that at least one of these marks is going to have to give. Traditionally, Morneau has been an excellent RBI man. But even with his great start in AVG and HR, he is on pace to deliver fewer RBIs than either 2006 or 2008. Like McCutchen, Morneau is another guy who will produce good numbers throughout the 2010 season. But his trade value will never be higher.
David Price – Over-hyped in 2009, Price fell off the radar for a lot of fantasy owners heading into drafts this year. He has rewarded fantasy owners who did not give up on him with a fantastic start, as he is 6-1 with a 1.81 ERA. However, by xFIP, Price is not substantially better in 2010 than he was a season ago, when he finished 10-7 with a 4.42 ERA. This year’s xFIP is 3.98 while it was 4.49 in 2009. I would be a shade more aggressive shopping Price at this point than either of the hitters mentioned above.
HUNCH
Jeff Francis – After missing all of the 2009 season recovering from labrum surgery, Francis is back in the majors with the Rockies. The history of pitchers with this surgery is not encouraging but I like Francis’ chance to buck those odds and beat his RoS ZiPS projection of 4 W, 4.55 ERA, 60 Ks and a 1.41 WHIP.
Will the xBABIP calculator work with anything other than Excel?
I don’t think so but I can’t say for sure. Here’s the link:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/simple-xbabip-calculator/
Hope it works!
Jackson wasn’t at good as that last line suggest–Go for him at your own risk, and definitely do not overpay
No mention of Morneau’s steadily improving BB% (10.7, 12.2, 18.3)? It should lead (theoretically) to more R scored and it could be tough to increase RBI with a Mauer who slugs some ahead of you taking away some 3-R HR opportunities and such.
I do, however, agree that his trade value will never be higher. I just look at him as a Hold.
PS. I’ve been trying to trade Magglio for awhile with no biters. My shallow league and I are suckers for big HR and SB totals and tend to ignore R and RBI. Now I feel better about holding him. But more likely than not I’ll be including a link to this page in any trade offers.
Be aware that Detroit has an economic incentive not to give Ordonez too many plate appearances to avoid a 2010 contract option from vested at $15M. They ignored that in 2009, but it may restrict Ordonez’ playing time this year.
Aside from maybe Edwin Jackson, I think this is one of the best ‘trade possibility’ segments i’ve read. excellent!
I like all three of the Sells better than the Buys. I guess I could see selling Morneau if you could get a safer player injury wise, but I see no reason his stats will suffer as he has put up MVP numbers in the past. David Price is a blooming stud,do not sell him unless you get another top 20 pitcher in return. Same goes for McCutchen do not sell unless you get a stud in return. I would actually be acquiring these two players. There is no way I am buy Edwin Jackson unless it is from the FA pool as a streaming option. Baker could be a good target if the price is right. Maggs is playing his best ball in years and has been a bit knicked up this year, so I might actually advise selling.
It’s hard to know how to judge this article without any reference points as to players you would rather own than your sells or players you would trade away to acquire your buys, etc…I mean most of these guys aren’t waiver wire options, so would Morneau be a good Sell if I received Billy Butler in return? How about if I gave up Mike Leake to acquire Baker? This type of info would really help this article in my opinion.
Well, you may get more for Morneau than a Butler based on name alone. But, you gotta find the person who likes “name players”. Thats a part of the trade that isnt addressed often. The “name value” of a player.
yeah I was just using those names as an example to illustrate the point I was trying to make not as real trades I am considering. But you are right, if I was a Morneau owner I would be asking for more than Butler. But if someone likes “name players” and I was trading Morneau based on his name, wouldn’t I be trying to acquire a “name player” in return?
I like Francis too. Picked him up for his Sunday start in place of Mark Buerhle, who I couldn’t take seeing roughed up by KC. Francis has a good team behind him and gets to pitch to some weak NL West offenses, so if he’s healthy, he should produce some decent numbers. Good call. We’ll see how it pans out…
I’m holding on to McCutchen. Even if his .376 BABIP is unsustainable, I don’t think his .323 xBABIP is realistic either. McCutchen has done better than .323 in all but one of his professional seasons. Also, in my league, a lot of his value is in stolen bases.
Why would anyone think that Francis’ line post-labrum surgery would suddenly be better than his career line? (I’m talking WHIP and ERA, wins and Ks will obviously be higher if he stays in the rotation)That seems absurd. He’s a total waste of time in fantasy baseball, but if you have guys like Buerhle on your team, your staff probably isn’t so hot anyway, unless you’re in gigantic league.
I traded Price for Hanson. Good buy low-sell high? Did I get enough?