Archive for Curtis Granderson

Be it basic redraft leagues or the most hardcore of dynasty formats, a player or prospect’s age is an important part of evaluation. I’m not exactly breaking new ground by saying this of course, but I know sometimes I get more excited over a young player producing rather than someone five or six years their senior putting up similar numbers. I suspect I’m not alone in that, and while I don’t think I’ll be drafting nothing but older players, there’s no denying a lot of guys age-33 and older have been enjoying strong seasons. We’ll take a look at a handful of the hitters that have produced this year, and one that hasn’t, while also looking ahead to next season. Rather than look at obvious candidates like David Ortiz, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols and the like, I’ll look at a few names a bit further down the list. Read the rest of this entry »

On 9/3, I posted Adjusting Fantasy Value with expected (x)BABIP and xHR. These were used to adjust batting average, OBP, SLG and OPS for your different leagues’ formats.

Based on xBABIP, Michael Brantley and Anthony Rendon jumped in value sandwiching in Mike Trout as the top 3 adjusted Fantasy Values for standard 5×5 formats (HR, SB, R, RBI and AVG).

Here, I’ll attempt to verify the BABIP potential for standard 5×5 leagues. I am therefore using column 2 (sum of the 5×5 descriptive/actual z-scores: HR, SB, R, RBI and AVG) and comparing it to column 3 (sum of the 5×5 expected z-scores: xHR, SB, R, RBI and xAVG). SB, R and RBI are not adjusted even though they should be so consider this a way to play down the overall effect.

Read the rest of this entry »

In the leagues I run that have inexperienced and/or casual team owners, I always use the standard 5×5 roto categories because I feel that it would give me and the other experienced players an advantage. I know that the casual players in my leagues are using the rankings provided by the website on which we’re drafting or some other set of rankings from a major industry source. And almost all of those rankings are based on standard categories. If I replaced, for example, home runs with slugging percentage, I would be able to identify the players whose valuation or ranking would change with the different category. But the noobs would be using rankings made with home runs in mind.

I polled my Twitter followers to find out the most common uses of non-standard categories so that I could determine the players whose valuation/ranking changed the most when non-standard categories are used. The most common answers were OBP replacing batting average (which I covered here), slugging percentage replacing home runs, and OPS being added as a sixth category to the standard five hitter categories. Sorry if your league has a different non-traditional format.

Below are charts showing the biggest changes in SLG and OPS leagues. For an explanation of the methodology used, check out the OBP piece I just linked to. And if you’d like to see how all 242 hitters that I have projected are affected by SLG replacing HR or OPS being a sixth category, you can find the SLG list here and the OPS list here.

First up, guys who get a bump when slugging percentage replaces home runs.

Miguel Cabrera and Paul Goldschmidt are even more valuable in slugging percentage leagues, and they close the gap between them and Trout in auction leagues. Joey Votto shows up on this list just as he did in my OBP post. He’s obviously excellent, but the standard categories aren’t the best measure of his excellence.

Unsurprisingly, we see a few young first basemen here who haven’t reached the ‘power potential’ some thought they might. But really they just haven’t put up big home run totals. Freddie Freeman and Eric Hosmer may never settle in as 30+ HR regulars or even 25-30 HR regulars, but if you play in a slugging percentage league, their power plays. And Brandon Belt gets the biggest boost by switching to SLG. It’s possible his ballpark has something to do with it, but he’s very much in the Freeman/Homser mold. The only non-1B/DH player on this list is Yadier Molina who was 4th in the league in doubles last year.

Now the guys who you would prefer in a home run league. Read the rest of this entry »

Most of the time when I’m picking a daily lineup, I make a custom leaderboard of the starting pitchers for the day to see which starters are most homer-prone. But this can be a tedious task to do day after day. So I’ve created the chart you see below which shows the most homer prone starting pitchers. I had a post a few months ago where I had charts showing hitters with reverse splits and the splits of switch hitters that I still reference often. Hopefully this post will be a similar bookmark worthy tool.

There are three columns. One for starters that are currently in a major league rotation with at least 1320 career batters faced (which is the point at which HR stabilizes) against batters of any handedness . The players listed have a HR rate against all batters that is two or more standard deviations above the mean. And then there is a chart for starters with 1320+ BF against lefties and against righties. The players listed in those charts have a HR rate against batters of that particular handedness that is one or more standard deviations above the mean. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s fairly likely this isn’t your first spin with fantasy baseball, so you are no doubt familiar with the fact that things go wrong. Despite all your preparation, your undivided attention to the prognosticators and the projection sheets, sometimes the bell rings and one or two of your top picks turn into moldy wet blankets. One of your sleeper picks never wakes. A can’t-miss rookie never arrives.

It happens. It’s part of the game.

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For all the years that I’ve been playing fantasy baseball, I’ve never really understood the idea of punting saves. Not that I don’t understand the concept, but that I don’t understand the rationale behind thinking that it’s a good strategy. You load up on starters with the hope of locking up wins and strikeouts while doing your best to stay competitive in WHIP and ERA. Perfectly viable strategy, right? But what about the fact that Wins is, more or less, an arbitrary category and while your guy goes seven strong and exits with the lead, some clown of a set-up man comes in, walks the leadoff guy and then serves up a two-run shot to tie the game. A great game for your starter, for sure, but you make no advancement in a category you’ve supposedly built your team to excel in. Read the rest of this entry »

Mike Trout is a stud.  No question about it.  At 20 years old, the Angels outfielder has taken MLB by storm with a .341/.397/.562 slash line that comes with 12 home runs, 40 RBI, 57 runs scored and 26 stolen bases. He’s delivered all of that and, mind you, he was in the minors for the first month of the season. The production has been phenomenal and as an owner of Trout in my primary keeper league, the smile is so wide, it makes the Kool-Aid guy look like a crying fool. But while the old adage is not being able to see the forest through the trees, so many keeper league owners are so hell-bent on building up their future that they fail to see the season at hand and are so willing to dismantle their entire squad simply to acquire Trout and hand me the league this year. Read the rest of this entry »

The All-Star Game voting discussion is topical in real life, so why not talk about it in fantasy?  I’m of the philosophy that All Star Games should be about the best players, not just the players off to a hot start over the first few months.  In this case, I’ll define “best player” as the players that offered the most production over the past calendar year (i.e. June 2010 through May 2011).  Below, the point values are FanGraphs Points, and the $ shown are the player’s average cost.  Without further delay, here are your American League (fantasy) All-Stars!

Catcher: Victor Martinez (746.5 pts, .368 wOBA, $25)
Alternates: Carlos Santana (571 pts, .352 wOBA, $31) and Mike Napoli (565 pts, .343 wOBA, $12)

Now primarily a DH, Martinez continues to be an excellent fantasy producer.  The guy can hit, and with catcher eligibility he’s just a terrific player–probably more so in fantasy than in real life, given his fielding issues.  Santana is back after missing time with injury, and has largely picked up where he left off last year.  Napoli might surprise some folks, but he got a lot of playing time after the first few months last year and produced very well.  If only he could actually catch, he’d get more PT…

Read the rest of this entry »

All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some outfielders.

Alex Rios
Rios surged early this year, and was one of the most added players. Unfortunately, but predictably, he slowed as the season wore one. A lot of this came down to a bad BABIP, as his power production was fairly consistent.
Crude 2011 Projection: .290/.340, 19 HR, 25 SB
Verdict: Keep. You got him for cheap last year, and he’s still worth far more than that.

Curtis Granderson
The extraordinary season that many predicted from Granderson was anything but. He still put up solid numbers across the board, and was a four win player, but most expected better. Will his second year in the pinstripes, his age 30 season, be any better?
Crude 2011 Projection: .260/.340, 27 HR, 16 SB
Verdict: Keep. His kind of all-around production is still hard to find.

Shane Victorino
A career year at age 29. Who would have guessed? However, some owners are skeptical, and afraid his batting average will never return to a level close to .300. Plus, you have to wonder if he can put up numbers close to his 2010 campaign.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.345, 15 HR, 28 SB
Verdict: Keep. You won’t be able to let him go and pay the same price for him, so he’s worth holding on to, even if he can’t repeat 2010.

Will Venable
Venable was able to be had for next to nothing this year, thanks to playing for the Padres and his low batting average. With added playing time, Venable turned in a solid fantasy performance this year. If he could cut back on the strikeouts, he could be an outstanding player.
Crude 2011 Projection: .250/.330, 15 HR, 25 SB
Verdict: Keep. If you paid more than a couple of bucks for him, you can cut him. Otherwise, he’s worth a roster spot.

Carlos Quentin
You didn’t think he could ever repeat 2008, did you? However, for a power hitter, his strikeout rate is pretty darn good. All he needs to do is stop pressing and hit some more line drives, and Quentin will be golden.
Crude 2011 Projection: .255/.350, 25 HR
Verdict: Cut. If he could hit 30+ homers again, I’d be willing to swallow his poor batting average.

If you have an outfielder you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

It’s the final final day that teams can trade players, so there will be some post-deadline analysis coming. Here are a couple guys that are more sure things, as they are already on their teams and we have some historical data to analyze. Then again, there’s plenty of historical data that suggests that Jeff Francoeur and Manny Delcarmen are not good pickups no matter what team they are on.

Marcus Thames, Yankees (7% owned)
The book on Thames is that he mashes left-handers, and his platoon splits back that up. In 781 plate appearances against lefties, he has an .860 OPS that is eminently useful. Tom Tango’s the book says that we should regress his performance against lefties against 2200 plate appearances for right-handed batters, and his minor league stats going back to 2005 don’t show this same split, so we are justified in being skeptical. On the other hand, Thames is getting most of his at-bats against lefties and his team obviously believes he can hit southpaws best. This might sound like bad news – Thames is on a crowded team, and there are fewer lefties in baseball than righties – but it’s not. Predictable playing time is useful, since most fantasy teams have benches. Put Thames on your bench, and he’ll play once Lance Berkman comes back anyway. You see, Curtis Granderson has a split in the other direction, which makes moving Brett Gardner over to center and playing Thames in the outfield the probable course of action for the Yankees against southpaws. Finding an .800+ OPS batter that you can slot in against lefties is nice. Finding one that has hit six home runs in the past six games is just the cherry on top.

Mike Morse, Nationals (2% owned)
Morse is battling Willie Harris, Roger Bernadina and Justin Maxwell for playing time in the Nationals’ corners right now, but there are reasons to like this former shortstop’s chances of carving out some time for himself. For one, he’s hot, with ten hits in his last 15 atbats. Another thing that Morse has in his favor is power. He’s suddenly found his power stroke since moving to the weaker league, with a .231 ISO last year and a .243 ISO this year. Of course, those numbers have only come in 240 plate appearances and are not yet statistically significant, but a quick check of his minor league ISOs shows that a definite trend is in place. Last year, he had a .219 ISO in the minor leagues, and this year at Triple-A Syracuse, he turned in a .216 ISO. He’s a little over his head right now, and he usually hits too many balls on the ground (career 34.1% flyballs) to show this kind of power, but he’s worth a shot in the deepest of leagues. Harris is a career utility player or backup type, and while Bernadina is exciting and young, Maxwell is neither as young as he used to be (going on 27 now), nor as good as we though he might be. Right now he’s just not making any contact with a 20% walk rate and a 40% strikeout rate. Morse has a chance to carve out some time for himself as the regular right fielder.