Kicking Rocks: Take My Mike Trout
Mike Trout is a stud. No question about it. At 20 years old, the Angels outfielder has taken MLB by storm with a .341/.397/.562 slash line that comes with 12 home runs, 40 RBI, 57 runs scored and 26 stolen bases. He’s delivered all of that and, mind you, he was in the minors for the first month of the season. The production has been phenomenal and as an owner of Trout in my primary keeper league, the smile is so wide, it makes the Kool-Aid guy look like a crying fool. But while the old adage is not being able to see the forest through the trees, so many keeper league owners are so hell-bent on building up their future that they fail to see the season at hand and are so willing to dismantle their entire squad simply to acquire Trout and hand me the league this year.
Do I do the honorable thing and turn down trades that I believe to be so far out of whack that they could mess with league integrity or because nearly everyone is making me such ridiculous offers, do I just accept one because, if so many are doing it, who could complain about me just picking the one I like best? And the offers are quite ridiculous, actually. We’re looking at a minimum of a 4-for-1 that would upgrade me all over the place with high-quality players who, in fact, are probably borderline protects as well. They’re not just offering me a bunch of over-achieving hacks here. Some of these offers are coming with names like Jason Heyward, Michael Bourn, and Colby Rasmus. Sure, I lose out on Trout, but to be able to acquire such an array of talent and still have options for next year, the temptation is growing.
But here’s the funny part — no one is asking for my Adrian Beltre or my Curtis Granderson and believe it or not, there hasn’t been a single offer for my Miguel Cabrera. Not only are people trying to stock me with quality players this year, but they’re also leaving me with a number of stud protects for next year as well. I can win the league this year with a single trade of a guy who has yet to play a full season in the majors and can still build around a sick core of keepers next year. Does no one see that? Yes, he’s a stud and yes, I believe he will have success for years to come, but I can still win without him, can’t I?
Not only has the temptation to make one of these deals grown so great that I am at least 85% sure I’m going to pick one and run away with the top prize at the end of the season, but now I’m realizing that I should probably alter my strategy each and every year with these guys. Build a core of middle-aged (for baseball) proven talent that everyone seems to bypass because they’re so hung up on trying to find the next big thing in baseball, target and draft one superstar up-and-comer, and as my competitive team of “old guys” carry me to a top five position, trade my up-and-comer, and win the league again. Rinse and repeat.
It may not be the most successful strategy each and every year, but with owners so obsessed with the future, the present day championships seem pretty ripe for the picking on a regular basis. Of course I’d like to keep owning some of these young studs that everyone is ooooh-ing and ahhhh-ing about, but personally, I’d rather finish in the money for the next three to five years and possibly more beyond that. I’m more than happy to draft a veteran like Nick Swisher who hits 20-plus home runs, year in and year out, while you clutch your Manny Machado wait patiently for three years until he comes up. I’ll win now and worry about tomorrow, tomorrow.
So yes….take my Mike Trout, please!
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over 10 years on a variety of websites. In addition to his work here, you can also find him at his site, RotobuzzGuy.com, Fantasy Alarm, RotoWire and Mock Draft Central. Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for more direct questions or comments, email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com
trout for david price in a deep league and i need an ace. am i crazy to do this?
keeper league.
I wouldn’t say you were crazy, but given the ease with which pitchers can go down for the count, I would probably try to squeeze a little offense out of your trade partner as well.
Your more than just crazy , your idiotic.
Now, now, Matty. No reason for name-calling here. Like my granddaddy always used to say — opinions are like a$$holes. Everyone’s got one and most of ’em stink.
If the move is right for him and he cashes a check, then he’s happy. You might not agree, but you’re not in his league and don’t know all the circumstances.
I don’t have any idiotics or more-then-just-crazies; if that’s what you were looking for. I do have a few verbs though. You need any ares?
Oops! Tried to be clever and screwed up in the process.
Then = than.
Yeah, there are a lot of people in positions where it makes sense to trade mike trout right now. In all my ottoneu leagues he’s owned for like $9-17 bucks and he’s pretty much guaranteed to be voted off so I think every owner is at least considering moving him for a stud package.
I’m a big fan of selling high on hype. Guys like Harper and Trout right now have hype through the ceiling and you can easily get back more production by selling their names.
maybe i dont fully understand how ottoneu works, but its seems pretty dumb that a player can be voted off…
do managers not get to protect a certain # of players?
Someone offered me Bryce Harper and Dylan Bundy for Trout and I ran with it.
For a long term keeper, that could be excellent. Trout appears to not want to quit, If Harper’s progression is a little more even and Bundy doesn’t come up immediately, it might not be a winner for 2013, but I like it for 2014 and beyond.
Great point here. Always tough to let go of the stud prospect, especially one that is meeting AND exceeding expectations (which were sky high anyway). There’s no doubt Mike Trout is destined for greatness and while it’s probably stupid to ask, can his peak be much better than what we’ve seen already this year? If you can cash in now for a championship flag, it’s a strong consideration…
While that seems like a pretty good strategy this year, I don’t think you could expect to do that every year. Trout is really an exceptional prospect, and I don’t think there are any guys in the minors right now at the same level he was. I know there’s guys like Bundy and all the Pirates’ and Mariners’ pitching prospects, but pitchers are a dime a dozen. Legitimate 5-tool outfielders aren’t. I’m holding on to Trout for YEARS.
The first-place guy in my 10-team keeper league (keep 4) has been harassing me for Trout, offering increasingly ridiculous trades for a guy he doesn’t even need in order to win this year. His most recent offer is Josh Hamilton and 2012 2nd- and 4th-round picks — likely the first pick in each round, given current standings/snake format. I think I’m gonna go for it.
(For what it’s worth, my other keepers/potential keepers are: Pujols, Adam Jones, Hanley Ramirez, Brett Lawrie, Chris Sale and Cole Hamels).
Great piece.
I offered up Andrew McCutchen or Ryan Braun (I can’t keep both) AND Bryce Harper for Mike Trout in a keeper league, and got denied. Seemed like a good deal to me…
i would take braun over trout one for one. i would rank muccutchen and trout about even. i would rank harper and trout about even. mccutchen and harper or braun and harper for trout is a utterly ridiculous. do not make that offer.
In a keeper league, where you can’t keep both McCutchen and Braun, it made sense to try and make that move.
How is it you can’t keep Braun and McCutchen, but can keep Braun and Trout? (I assume you’re not going to trade to great players for Trout if you don’t plan to keep him)
Best guess is you can keep based on round and Braun and Cutch have same round value
If you trade Mike Trout, you deserve to lose forever.
I acquired Mike Trout – along with James Shields and Anibal Sanchez – for Joey Votto and Cole Hamels. I think I came out on top, but I worry. Mostly because of my love for Votto and Hamels.
I did exactly this last year with Hosmer, although admittedly the hype wasn’t as extreme. Worked like a charm.
I was offered Upton & Swisher for Trout in a 12-team mixed league.. very tempted. Pretty hard to turn that down right?
Meh. Not really a big fan of Upton actually and between the injuries and possible uncertainty of where Arizona ultimately trades him to, I would look for someone with less of a risk.
easy to turn it down. Swisher is not enough to make up for the value gap.
I drafted Trout in the 18th, making him a keeper in our league next year in the 15th. I cut him for pitching on opening day with plans to keep an eye on Hunter and Wells so that just as soon as either of them showed signs of pain I’d scoop him back up right before his call up.
Didn’t work. Someone willing to use a bench spot on him this April has one of their keepers lined up for a few years to come.
Worse part is I kept Tyler Pastornicky on my roster just because he was getting playing time this April.
To clever by half, as Pancho Sanchez would say. Lost Addison Reed the same way.
I don’t think losing Addison Reed can be equated to losing Mike Trout.
That is a sad and painful story Sterling, my deepest regrets for your loss.
however you learned an expensive lesson and I think your experience will serve you will in the future.
@phishie: Trout for Justin Upton and Swisher is a bad trade for you.
Upton isn’t doing jack, and Swisher doesn’t make up for what you’re losing in Trout. Keep Trout and enjoy the show.
Does your league not have rules that make keeping Miguel Cabrera a far more costly thing than keeping Mike Trout? e.g., at a higher cost in dollars (Cabrera @ $50, Trout @ $5) or foregone drafting position (lose a 1st round pick vs. 15th). Seems weird, but I’m not experienced.
15 team, mixed league with 25 man rosters – 2 at each position with 6 OF and 9 P. Can keep up to 9. First guy is free, second costs 10, then 15, then 20 and so on…
I just offered ortiz, A-Gon, Ellsbury and Nova for trout and ackley plus a draft pick(AL only roto keeper league). But Trout is a 5A , Ackley is 5b, and my 4 guys are all expiring contracts. The guy with trout is in 2nd, I’m in 4th. He makes the trade and he can win, I’m going to finish between 3rd and 6th either way. So its a no-brainer I think. These types of trades are very common in our league, which has been in existence since the late 80’s.
People have been hounding me for Trout in my keeper league since May and though it seems insane to trade him, I did exactly that for Dickey and Chapman.
I needed an ace and a closer, and though it pained me to do it, I’m trying to win this season, so I pulled the trigger.
wow awful trade for you.
Dickey is definitely not the “ace” i wouldve have targeted when shopping Trout.
I’ve offered kinsler, reyes, Adrian gonzalez, David price and Jake peavy for Mike trout and a bunch of filler to round out numbers in our league. Still hasn’t accepted though. (trout is an eternal 25th round keeper in my league and i have harper as an eternal 21st, and im currently in 9th)
I’m basically winning him the league this year if he does the trade. Would have thought he’d accept by now.
1) the league set up is incredibly stupid. “eternal” 25th round keepers?
2) how would that trade not get unanimously vetoed?
3) why in the world would he turn that down?
Beginning of the season, someone in my league got Trout for Motte and Heath Bell. I cried when I saw that trade.
I traded Trout for Greinke and Stanton (guy can keep Trout next year – I can’t keep either).
Then I traded Greinke for Trumbo and Carlos Santana.
Then I traded Trumbo for Granderson and Napoli.
SO
I traded Trout for Granderson, Stanton, Napoli, and Santana.
Boom.
Boom, indeed. I love trading for a couple guys who I know hold a lot of trade value, only to turn right around and flip them for even better players.
It’s like that old game “Bigger and Better.”
how the F did you trade Trumbo for Grandy AND Napoli? Are you in a “special” league and taking advantage of the weak? That trade probably would have been vetoed in my league.
“probably”?
Had a long back and forth and eventually traded Beltran and Kimbrel for Trout a few weeks back. I am in first by a large margin, and only needed to improve R, SB, and BA. Though I thought I overpaid a little at the time, I figured I’m selling high on Beltran and Kimbrel, and Trout should regress some but not a ton.
I don’t expect anyone to offer anything close to what Trout is worth to me this year (redraft league, so no long term value for someone to pay for). Closest I got was my Trout+Price for his Votto… this was in late May/early June time frame. Just a little too rich, though at the time it felt like I was taking a bigger gamble on Trout by turning it down.
this is a good question but highly context dependent:
– how is the league structured?
– how many keepers?
– how much does it cost to keep guys?
– what is your relative position in the standings and how close are you to making a run with a few important upgrades?
in general I am all for the “flags fly forever” philosophy and winning this year is more important than stocking up for the future. and there is definitely an arbitrage opportunity with overhyped young players versus productive mid-career veterans in keeper leagues.
but Trout isn’t just a typical happens-every-year prospect. He’s a fantasy monster. He’s MUCH better than, say, Eric Hosmer last year for example. I doubt he’s a .340 hitter but he easily projects as a Jacoby Ellsbury type of talent — .300 AVG, 20+ HR, 40-50+ SB, 100+ R. That’s a 1st round player, or a $35+ type of player in money leagues.
so it really depends on the context. If you play in a league with a lot of keepers and not much cost differential, then it totally makes sense to trade him for a package of studs. But if (like me) you play in a league with limited keepers and a the cost differential is large, then it’s tough to trade him unless you are blown away. We can only keep 5 players and I have Trout for $10 next year, $13 the next year, etc. and considering he should deliver $30+ production that is a massive amount of surplus value.
Dude had been hounding me for Giancarlo since I drafted him, so I asked for Trout about 3 or 4 weeks ago. I think it’s fair to say he’s regretting that trade by now.
Now THAT was a good trade…..
Im my keeper league Trout isn’t even up in his owners big league club yet, god only knows why. And so he won’t be all year now as they become $0 when promoted, so Trout will be worth $0 next year…yeah sick value I know. Then he could be signed for another 3 years for just 9 bucks.
All in all he’s just an amazing keeper in this format, so could pretty much bring any return if a team out of contention wanted him this year. Im streets ahead in 1st in this league, and my only worry is if a team offers every star they had up for Trout, then that could beat me.
Trout is not going to be a prennial .340/.950 30/50 guy (rough current pace). His value right now is likely at one of the highest peaks it will ever be. If you can pull off getting proven superstars (plural), you would be foolish to turn it down.
There might not be another Trout coming up anytime soon but, there are no Votto’s, Braun’s, McCutchen’s, Granderson’s etc. coming up either.
again this depends on cost/context. He doesn’t have to keep hitting .340, to be a 1st/2nd round talent, and if his keep cost is much lower than an established star like Braun or McCutchen it’s a hard trade to make.
got offered stanton and granderson for trout. thinking about it.
I just got offered Justin Upton + Jered Weaver for Mike Trout and Tommy Hanson. Should i pull the trigger? I just got back Ellsbury so I should be good in the speed department and my pitching could use a boost.
12 team non keeper
I’m just not that big a fan of Upton, to be honest. Between the injuries and the trade talk and the disappointing totals, I just don’t feel like he’s that great of a buy-low candidate. Trout is so much more than just stolen bases that I would try to shop Ellsbury for a pitching boost. He is not going to hit for the same power he did last season.
Totally depends on the structure of the keeper league I think. In a deep keeper league with a limited number of keepers, I feel like getting equal value for Trout is close to impossible. Who else offers a large upgrade for even THIS season? Is going from Trout to Braun really going to make your team that much better?
Looking ahead to next season, if I have 5 keepers, and I trade Trout for a package of 2 keepers and 1 “rental”, I’m really trading Trout and the future seasons of another potential keeper on my roster. Suppose besides Trout, I have four other nice keepers, and my fifth ranked keeper is Anthony Rizzo. Trading Trout for 2 other keepers in this scenario essentially means trading Rizzo’s future seasons.
It also depends on how long your keeper league has been running, and whether there’s any other valuable players locked into nice keeper costs. Trade me McCutchen or Votto as a $10 keeper, and now we’re talking.
I think the deal is that some people are being offered *multiple* big name stars for Trouts services. Like, someone who could keep pace with Trout’s output this season, plus a massive upgrade at another position (or two). That’s the kind of thing that can make a big difference in the current season. You’re right that the calculus for seasons in the future gets more complicated, but there are worse problems to have then having too many quality keepers.
I’ve been complaining about our keeper system for years. You can’t keep guys drafted in the first three rounds (from when the league started onward), but you can keep anyone else (2 keepers) with no penalty, forever. I’ve been trying to get it changed for the longest time, but I’m in a league with a bunch of guys who still think wins are the best stat for determining a pitcher’s skill.
But fortune has now smiled on me, and I will be keeping Trout and McCutchen for the foreseeable future.
On a side note, the trade offers I get for Trout are ridiculously bad. I’m talking Nelson Cruz for Trout straight-up bad. At least I don’t have to fight temptation.
I’m in a 12 team h2h non-keeper league got the following offer:
I give:
Trout
Freeman
I get:
Miguel Cabrera
Ethier
Lance Lynn
The move would put Rizzo on my bench (MCab at IF) and Ethier in my OF. My OF is crazy good – Braun/McCutchen/Trout (Swisher at UT, D.Jennings Bench). Other team has Gio on his roster as the only better player to shoot for. Trade, decline, or counter?
Well, the question I have is this — what are you trying to get out of the deal? You’ll probably upgrade in power and downgrade in speed. BA should be a wash. Not getting much in Lynn — decent pitcher but nothing earth-shattering here. Have you been lagging in the power department and just crushing in stolen bases each week? What is your team gaining? If the deal is going to help you win your league because you are trading from strength and getting back things that your team needs, then it’s worth making. But don;t go making a deal just for the sake of making a deal. That never helps.
I’m in the same position in my ESPN league. I’m in 2nd place, and could trade Trout and get like 6 players back and guarantee 1st. Or, I could have more fun getting to watch Mike Trout on my team for $19/season through 2015.
A guy in my league offered me Carlos Gonzales and Strasburg for trout. I really don’t want to get rid of trout but this offer is amazing especially if Strasburg goes beyond 160 IP.
Correction: “…while you clutch your Manny Machado wait patiently for three *weeks* until he comes up.”