Keeper Conundrums: Outfield, Part One
All this week, I’ll be looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some outfielders.
Alex Rios
Rios surged early this year, and was one of the most added players. Unfortunately, but predictably, he slowed as the season wore one. A lot of this came down to a bad BABIP, as his power production was fairly consistent.
Crude 2011 Projection: .290/.340, 19 HR, 25 SB
Verdict: Keep. You got him for cheap last year, and he’s still worth far more than that.
Curtis Granderson
The extraordinary season that many predicted from Granderson was anything but. He still put up solid numbers across the board, and was a four win player, but most expected better. Will his second year in the pinstripes, his age 30 season, be any better?
Crude 2011 Projection: .260/.340, 27 HR, 16 SB
Verdict: Keep. His kind of all-around production is still hard to find.
Shane Victorino
A career year at age 29. Who would have guessed? However, some owners are skeptical, and afraid his batting average will never return to a level close to .300. Plus, you have to wonder if he can put up numbers close to his 2010 campaign.
Crude 2011 Projection: .280/.345, 15 HR, 28 SB
Verdict: Keep. You won’t be able to let him go and pay the same price for him, so he’s worth holding on to, even if he can’t repeat 2010.
Will Venable
Venable was able to be had for next to nothing this year, thanks to playing for the Padres and his low batting average. With added playing time, Venable turned in a solid fantasy performance this year. If he could cut back on the strikeouts, he could be an outstanding player.
Crude 2011 Projection: .250/.330, 15 HR, 25 SB
Verdict: Keep. If you paid more than a couple of bucks for him, you can cut him. Otherwise, he’s worth a roster spot.
Carlos Quentin
You didn’t think he could ever repeat 2008, did you? However, for a power hitter, his strikeout rate is pretty darn good. All he needs to do is stop pressing and hit some more line drives, and Quentin will be golden.
Crude 2011 Projection: .255/.350, 25 HR
Verdict: Cut. If he could hit 30+ homers again, I’d be willing to swallow his poor batting average.
If you have an outfielder you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
Andre Ethier? I’m figuring that pinky injury kept his #s down from what could-have-been after a scorching start.
Back at you again after getting helpful feedback earlier in this series. I’m in an LF/CF/RF league with 11 offensive categories (so balanced performance is best) and have stashed a number of LFs, all cheaply:
Blanks
Venable
Colvin
Gomes
Oakland Carter
Which two are the best options for 2011?
Venable and Colvin, mostly because of playing time. Carter will play, but his average will be atrocious.
Shane Victorino had a career year?
Fantasy wise, it was great.
My league rules only allow 4 keepers (I know how ridiculous that is; I joined the league late and rules were already set, I’m working on changing them).
I’m already keeping Tulo, Braun and Posey.
The other options I have are two of the big underperforming outfielders, Kemp and J Upton. Which one should I keep? (My other choices for the final spot are Josh Johnson, Cliff Lee, and Liriano.)
Josh Johnson
I’m on the fence about several.
Adam Jones on Beltran – both expensive.
Logan Morrison, Seth Smith for cheap.
I’m fairly sure that Joyce is a safe drop redraft candidate.
Feedback would be appreciated!
Jones + Beltran: Cut
Morrison: Keep
Smith: Cut (don’t think he’ll get enough PT, but I could be wrong).
Joyce: Re-draft if it looks like they are going to give him ABs.
Angel Pagan and Andres Torres, both really broke out this year.
what about Jay Bruce?
Luke Scott? Angel Pagan? Jason Bay?
Yes to Scott and Pagan, no to Bay.
I’m seeing Travis Snider, Jay Bruce, and Desmond Jennings and I’m going to run with those for next week.
Adam Jones?
In a league where OBP is used over AVG, does that change the verdict on Quentin? He’s streaky, but that power potential makes it hard to dismiss him. Also, his BABIP is awful, though I suppose it’s been consistently awful most of his career.
I feel like whatever you paid for Granderson this year, you can get him for less next year.
Just cut Rios in my Playoff scenario.
Look at his post-ASG stats, I dont think he’s gonna rebounce.
Nick Markakis – keep or cut?
Jason Kubel (cheap)???
Vlad (average)???
Shane Victorino
A career year at age 29. Who would have guessed?
a career year?
in what sense?
home runs yes, not much else
I’m in a deep, 12 team NL only keeper league. How about Ben Francisco for $6? It’s difficult to gauge what the Phillies are going to do with him.
I’m in a keeper league. I have too many OF’s and need to trade for some starting pitching. I’ve got Hollliday, CarGo and they’re not going anywhere. I also have Justin Upton, Carlos Quentin, and Desmond Jennings. Should I get rid of Jennings, or should I hang on to him for the future and trade Upton or Quentin? I’m leaning towards trading Quentin but have this feeling I might regret it. Any thoughts?
depends what kind of risk taker you are…. I’d be tempted to trade Upton because I think his perceived value is much higher than actual value, and you are already strong with Holliday / CarGo. Somebody will gamble on the youth/talent/upside and you may be able to get a top notch starting pitcher (certainly more than you could get for Quentin!)